This is a brief article from Harold Hitchinson posted on Strategypage.com. He reviews probable strategies to a WMD attack.
NBC: What if a Terrorist Attack Fails?
NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL AND WEAPONS
July 14, 2005: What happens when a terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction ?fails?? ?Failure? in this case is fraught with a number of variables that can determine the result. As the 1995 Tokyo subway attack by Aum Shinrikyo terrorists (using sarin nerve gas) shows, chemical weapons can be produced by a group that gathers together enough talent, money and determination.
If such an attack occurred in the United States, the investigation will probably be carried out by the FBI, with assistance from other law enforcement agencies. If the attack is from a group that has used homemade chemical or biological agents, the investigation and prosecution will be left to law enforcement, much as Japan did in the wake of the subway attacks. Several of the perpetrators were sentenced to death. This is partly because the investigation showed that Aum Shinrikyo had been working on biological weapons like botulism and anthrax before it switched to the use of sarin nerve gas. These groups also would be trying to use the black market to acquire weapons (Aum Shinrikyo was even looking into acquiring a nuclear warhead).
It is imperative to keep in mind that this was what one group could do. Aum Shinrikyo was a large group (as many as 40,000 people worldwide, 9,000 of which were in Japan, but it also had numerous members in Russia and had even opened an office in New York), and was worth as much as $150 million, and even today maintains a profitable computer business. This was an atypical organization because of the way it operated largely in the open. Most of the time, terrorist cells will keep a much lower profile, but the ingenuity and depravity of terrorist groups should not be underestimated. Remember, some of these weapons are easy to manufacture.
A failed terrorist attack by another country, or by a terrorist group using weapons provided by a state sponsor, that does not result in mass casualties, will be handled differently. It will not matter whether the attack was stopped, whether no fatalities occur, or if there are only a small number of fatalities. Should the source be traced, American policy is clear: They will draw an American response in kind. The Americans only have one form of WMD: nuclear weapons. The only difference here would be in the scale of the response. There would still be a response in kind, though. Maintenance of deterrence alone would demand that. The size of the response would depend on who is President. It would also depend on how the state sponsor of the terrorists acted. Quick compliance after the initial retaliation (probably unconditional surrender) would limit the extent of the American response.
Much of this is all-too-thinkable in the wake of the Tokyo subway attack and the attacks of 9/11. The Tokyo subway attack was one such ?fizzle? ? and it still resulted in 12 dead and over 5,000 injured, with a high number of the injured still suffering symptoms (mostly eye strain and post-traumatic stress disorder). Decontamination of the location hit would be time-consuming (some biological and chemical agents cane be very persistent ? anthrax can last for a while on items like clothing).
When weapons of mass destruction are involved, the stakes get high, and an attack that ?fizzles? can still becomes a major crisis. ? Harold C. Hutchison