T Nation

Electoral Map

The polls continue to show a close race from a popular vote perspective. However, electorally It seems that President Bush has a larger advantage.

It seems that John Kerry has only a handful of states that he can count on at this point. President Bush on the other hand has about 20 where he has a 9 point lead, or greater.

Seems the Kerry camp has to find a way to win some big electoral vote states, such as: Florida. PA, Ohio, Wisconson, Arizona. The problem is that he must win them all in order to make this a close race electorally.

What are some other opinions on this issue?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

definitely an interesting site. i don’t agree with their trend lines though, one poll out of whack with the others seems to heavily influence it’s direction. (see NJ)

ZEB
Try watching that site over time, for a little perspective. Kerry’s led Bush 300 to 200 (roughly) at one point. A month ago Bush had 311 points. Try watching that website over time. (I posted a link to that site probably 2 months ago, buddy).

Bush HAS to win two out of these three states: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvannia. It looks like they are giving up on PA, though.

Even if Bush wins all three states, there are still scenarios where Bush could lose the electoral college.

Bush’s approval rating is 47%. Any time an incumbent’s approval rating is under 50%, he’s in deep doo-doo.

As polls assess the impact of the debates, Bush will continue to sink in the polls. Voters had a chance to rate Bush and Kerry standing next to each other on the same stage, and Bush just did not measure up. Kerry looked like the president, and Bush looked like a pesky mosquito.

I understand that Conservatives don’t want to vote for a Liberal on principle, but Jeeze Louise, was George Bush REALLY the best candidate you could come up with???

Lumpa,

I disagree. Kerry looked like a pompous ass.

While we were laughing WITH Bush during the last debate, we were laughing AT Kerry.

Lumpy:

Bush only has to win one of those three states that you mentioned. If he wins all the others that he is leading in, he wins!

However, I think that Bush will win Florida and Ohio. PA…no.

Lumpy,

Gotta disagree with the comment about Bush being the best candidate the GOP can field. He was better than Gore where it mattered (271/266). And one of the definitions of the word incumbent is inmposed by obligation or duty. I can’t believe the democrats can’t field anyone who could do better than tie Bush. Clinton would’ve smacked him, I think Edwards in the lead role could even outstrip him. Anyway, I’ve gotta agree about the electoral map, saw it before, seen it swing wildly and am dubious as to W having that much of a lead.

Ohio is going to be a mess – apparently two counties have greater numbers of registered voters than the voting-age populations…

Rumor up on capitol hill is that the dems are ready to take Ohio off their “in play” list. Electorally Kerry is hurting, even my home state of new Jeresey is now in play for bush, and the fact that Senator Mark Dayton gave his entire staff off for the next month so they could go campaign for Kerry, and ensure that Kerry isnt the first dem in 40 years to lose Minnesota says it all.

Tracking polls released today show Bush up by 4pts.

Pennsylvania has an urban governor (Rendell) who is a democrat but a very rural population. I predict PA and Ohio will go for Bush. Fla. is a lock for Bush. Kerry needed to spend a lot of time down there and he didn’t.

Wisconsin is still a true swing state. NJ is 50/50. With the McGreevey problems as well as the general mistruct of the Democratic party in State politics I wouldn’t be suprised if it goes for Bush.

NY unfortunately is a hopeless cause. Too many voters survive on entitlements and public programs and the Democrats give a lot more of that away then the Republicans.

I think the polls will widen with Bush starting to pull away. He was starting to pull away before the debates. I think Kerry’s skills as a debater stemmed that breakaway but winning debates does not make you a better man for the job. The undecided voters are making up their minds and I see the lead continuing to widen.

I saw the Zogby poll today with W. up four points. I expect that to widen.

The worst part of the three debates was Kerry looking directly into the camera.

That was trully frightening.

JeffR

President Bush had about a 6 pt to 8pt lead going into the three debates. No question Kerry closed the gap and helped himself greatly during the debates.

The problem for Kerry is that there are 18 more days until the election, which is a lifetime in a race like this! Barring any unforseen dirty tricks from the democrats (such as they did four years ago with the DUI announcement two days before the election-That is not to say that republicans are above dirty tricks). I see Bush’s lead widening. As two previous posters mentioned Bush is already up by 4pts in the Zogby poll.

As the remaining 18 days play out the superior financial advantage, advertising and strategy by the Bush team will help him once again regain the lead he had prior to the debates, about 6pts. and people will soon forget Kerry the methodical debater. That image will be replaced by millions of dollars of republican commercials: “Kerry the flip-flopping big spending liberal.”

With the above stated I feel that the current electoral map shown on this thread is quite accurate. Kerry has an uphill climb in order to obtain 270 electoral votes!

Colorado is doing something that might prove to be interesting at least. They have a ballot measure to change the state’s constitution so that Colorado?s nine electoral votes would be allocated in proportion to the popular vote in the state instead of a winner-take-all basis. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6106804

Colorado is supposedly weakly leaning to Bush. This state might not have the number of electoral votes to change the outcome of the race, but this might be the future of many states.

Here’s how a couple guys at the Wall Street Journal are reporting the campaigns are seeing the battlegrounds:

Battlefield Appears to Narrow
For Presidential Race

By GREG HITT and JACOB M. SCHLESINGER
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 15, 2004; Page A4

LAS VEGAS – The presidential campaign battleground is narrowing to about 10 states in the final weeks before Election Day, as the rival campaigns make tough choices about where to target resources.

Florida and Ohio are the most closely fought states. But President Bush appears to be less optimistic about capturing Michigan and New Hampshire, while Sen. John Kerry is scaling back in Missouri, West Virginia and Arizona. In the past week, the senator canceled plans to visit West Virginia this weekend.

Still, the endgame plans include surprises. Mr. Bush is making a play for heavily Democratic New Jersey – dominated by terrorism fears – and planning a visit there Monday. Aides say he retains hope of stealing Democratic-leaning Oregon, where he campaigned late yesterday.

Mr. Kerry, who spoke here yesterday to AARP, the senior citizens’ lobby, hopes to focus his final two weeks of campaigning on pocketbook issues. He feels confident that his recent emphasis on Iraq has burnished his credentials on national security and undercut the president’s credibility.

Across town, Mr. Bush rallied supporters on the campus of the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, kicking off a cross-country tour by Republican governors aimed at boosting excitement among grassroots supporters. He is weighing a stretch run that will focus heavily on discrediting Mr. Kerry, portraying him as weak on terrorism and out of touch with mainstream America. While Mr. Kerry is emphasizing economics, Mr. Bush will highlight differences with the senator on the economy and terrorism.

Sources said the Bush campaign is developing television ads to raise anti-Kerry rhetoric even further. One potential development that could benefit Mr. Bush is the airing of a videotape of Mr. Kerry telling a collection of Hollywood entertainers that they represent the “heart and soul of our country.” Those images would likely fire up the conservatives Mr. Bush needs to come out in droves. A top Republican close to the campaign suggested the tape, long sought by Bush aides, is likely to “magically leak out” just ahead of the election.

In the next few days, Bush and Kerry aides plan to sift national and state polls to choose where to focus ads and where to send the candidates. “The most important polls are the ones done a couple of days after the last debate,” says a Kerry adviser. “People are making up their minds.” He said the surveys that come out over the weekend and early next week “will likely be the same as the election.”

Six months ago, both campaigns described a battleground across the country of perhaps 20 states. Now the field has narrowed considerably, and will continue to do so in the coming days.

In the industrial Midwest, Ohio, which went closely for Mr. Bush over Democrat Al Gore in 2000, remains the big prize. Bush aides have discussed pulling back in Michigan, and Kerry aides are increasingly confident of keeping Pennsylvania in the Democratic column. They have given up on Missouri and are playing down West Virginia.

Mr. Bush’s best chance of picking up states from 2000 may be in the upper Midwest, particularly Wisconsin and Iowa. Kerry aides, once fearful of losing Minnesota, are now more confident there. Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman insists the battleground still looks favorable for the president. “We’re playing in their territory,” he says.

In the West, Mr. Bush travels to Oregon this week, but Kerry aides insist they are far ahead there and in Washington state, where Mr. Bush had once pushed hard. But the three mountain states of New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada are all tight – the first lost by Mr. Bush in 2000, the latter two won by him. Mr. Kerry may spend time in that region in the next two weeks.

Write to Greg Hitt at greg.hitt@wsj.com3 and Jacob M. Schlesinger at jacob.schlesinger@wsj.com4


Also, here’s the today’s campaign-stop schedule, which is usually fairly indicative – I wish I could see how the campaigns are spending money on ad-buys in various markets…

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410150950.asp

Interestingly, it’s mostly 2000 “Blue” states…

[quote]
The problem for Kerry is that there are 18 more days until the election, which is a lifetime in a race like this! [/quote]
How about Kerry’s rep as the best closer in the business?

[quote]
Barring any unforseen dirty tricks from the democrats (such as they did four years ago with the DUI announcement two days before the election-That is not to say that republicans are above dirty tricks).[/quote]
Keep an eye on Florida for those GOP dirty tricks…

RSU:

Keep in mind that you have not one shread of evidence that the GOP did anything wrong in Florida!

However, it is easy to recollect the democrats dirty trick four years ago two days before the election.

Oops> “Shred”

Get a grip, guys, New Jersey is not “in play” or 50-50.

Bush’s approval rating is 47% and anything less than 50% is considered the danger zone for an incumbent.

Bush has a lousy record, but he’s got a lot of weak ABK support (Anybody But Kerry).

As far as the claim that New York gets lots of entitlements and handouts, check your facts. Red states generally get more back in spending than they paid out in taxes, while Blue states tend to pay more taxes than they get back in spending. I posted stats on that last week.

Lumpy:

You really need to check your facts regarding NJ. Since the democratic Governor resigned while admitting cheating on his wife while having a homosexual affair the voters of NJ have been leaning toward Bush. There is also a matter of state corruption, brought to you by the democratic party.

Can Bush win NJ? I don’t know, but I do know it is currently a dead heat in that state!

By the way, he does not need NJ to win the Presidency~!

Zeb:

Some interesting analysis of the electoral picture, courtesy of Slate:

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108019/

Don’t give up totally on NY, I know it’s a long shot but the people in NYC will not likely forget 9/11 and the following day when they step into the polls. It could influence the decision. Also I know this is stupid but Yankees fans are going to have a hard time voting for a guy from Boston, especially if Boston upsets the Yanks.
And, Upstate Kerry has much less of an appeal to us. A very large portion of NY is hickville and small to mid size cities. Kerry doesn’t have a ton of traction up here. He may be the favorite but he hasn’t won the state yet.

Vegita ~ Prince of all Sayajins