T Nation

Election Prediction.


After going to:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

And looking around, I did some math. They have 8 States as toss up states. I believe Ohio will go for Bush, and Minnesota will go for Kerry.

That means if Bush takes Florida, he wins. If not, and he takes Pennsylvania, he only needs one more toss up state to win, any one.

Even if he loses Pennsylvania, he can still win.

And of the 6 remaining toss up states, 2 are leaning toward Kerry.

Right now I would give Bush an 85% chance of winning. In less then 24 hours, I might know if I am right. If they can count quickly enough. And no real legal challenges.

The big news I think will be that NJ goes for Bush. Will tilt the race accordingly.

I haven’t done the figures, but I think Bush will win – all the predictions of a Kerry win are predicated on a huge voter turnout, as well as Kerry getting the majority of the undecideds. I don’t think either will happen. If you adjust the polls for those metrics, Bush is ahead comfortably.

Again, as you said Mage, that’s assuming no lawsuits/cheating. But, about the lawsuits: If it’s not close – as in less than 2% in a given state – there’s a much lesser chance of any lawsuits.

I think that no one has taken MTV’s “20 Million Loud” campaign seriously. As younger voters and more African-Americans will come out and vote in this election.

And depending on how they vote, it could definitely be the reason that the votes sway to Kerry’s side. We’ll have to see what happens.

And yes, Florida is already screwing things up. Wouldn’t it be something if it came down to the last few votes in Florida once again? I don’t think we can handle that.

Boston Barrister, Hedo and Mage,

I sure hope you guys are right. This is going to be one nerve racking day.

Not to sound like a pessimist, but I lost my faith in polls after our last federal election (Canadian). All the polls had me celebrating a Conservative win in the days leading up to the election. Each one in the weeks and days before showed that we would form government or at worst come very close. We didn?t, we actually finished with 99 seats compared to 135 Liberal seats. How can that be explained? Nothing out of the ordinary happened during the last few days that would have swayed that many voters. The number of undecideds would not account for the difference either. Maybe another Canadian on this forum has heard a good explanation? If so, I would be interested to know. I heard quite a few times that many NDP voters (our far-left party) became afraid of the polling and decided to vote strategically last minute. I can?t remember exactly where the polls put the NDP before the election, but I was under the impression that the NDP was quite ecstatic with the 19 seats they won, which would conclude their performance was similar or better than what the polls were indicating.

Anyway, sorry to hijack this thread with Canadian politics.

Go Bush Go!

JP Bear:

Not Canadian, but it would seem that there were two likely explanations: 1) Bad polls (either too small or biased samples, or a bad estimation of who constituted a likely voter; or 2) The news that Conservatives might win, combined with the usual scare tactics (“Conservatives will kill old people, defund public schools and poison the air!”), swayed some middle-of-the-road voters (e.g. “persuadables”) against voting Conservative.

Just my best guess.

[quote]Nate Dogg wrote:
I think that no one has taken MTV’s “20 Million Loud” campaign seriously. As younger voters and more African-Americans will come out and vote in this election, and it could definitely be the reason that the votes sway to Kerry’s side.[/quote]

Nate:

I seem to recall back in the spring when the pundits were atwitter that there would be a flood of these cell-phone-using, internet dwelling young enthusiasts who would carry Dean on to the nomination. I think we all know how that turned out…

As for African American voters, according to one poll (and I haven’t seen a poll that contradicts it), Bush has doubled his support among African Americans – and some socially conservative African Americans are disinclined to vote Kerry, even if they do not wish to support Bush (they’ll probably stay home, much like upset Consservatives in 1992 either stayed home or voted Perot).

Nate Dogg,

“I think that no one has taken MTV’s “20 Million Loud” campaign seriously.”

I concur, as people just don’t put a lot of stock in half-literate pop stars trying to get young folks interested in policy the pop stars don’t know much about.

“As younger voters and more African-Americans will come out and vote in this election.”

Maybe - I don’t know if the MTV movement is particularly good at getting more Black Americans to the polls.

“And depending on how they vote, it could definitely be the reason that the votes sway to Kerry’s side. We’ll have to see what happens.”

I think young people are often stereotyped as being liberal voters when they vote - but I’ve seen a few polls, whatever their worth, that suggest that many youngsters - always eager to ‘rage against the machine’ and their parents - have decided that the ‘machine’ is their parents’ creaking 60’s hippie-dippie left-wing politics. Not all youngsters, but a surprising amount are quite hawkish and averse to the political correctness that has been shoved down their throats in the name of ‘tolerance’ and ‘multiculturalism’.

In the end, I think a lot of the ABB crowd will either stay home or vote Nader. They’ll all tell their friends they voted Kerry, but a lot won’t be able to actually do it.

BostonBarrier,

We can only wait and see what happens and how everyone votes. It will be an interesting and exciting day nevertheless.

bush will win in ohio and florida…and pull NJ, New Mexico and make it close in Minnesota as well.

He comes close to the 300 electoral vote line.

I actually just filled out my electoral map at this site

bush winds up with 315 after taking Hawaii and NJ with Kerry getting Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

Every recent election, the MTV generation talks about a huge turnout and “rock the vote” and, at least historically, their turnout is very low, I have talked with several students/young people ( 18-25) at our clinic, in the past month, virtually all of them were passionate and very verbal about their support for Kerry, like 95%, but none of them voted and only about 5-6 even registered out of the 35 I talked with-maybe an isolated example, but it might be accurate.

[quote]Nate Dogg wrote:
BostonBarrier,

We can only wait and see what happens and how everyone votes. It will be an interesting and exciting day nevertheless.[/quote]

Nate:

Indeed. And I hope we do know the winner this evening, even though I won’t lose any sleep if we don’t – after all, back in the days of hand-counting ballots they didn’t know the winner for months (which is why inaugeration day was so long after the election).

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, chief pollster for Kerry, is calling for Bush to win by 3% in the popular vote:

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/002962.php

November 02, 2004
Democratic Pollster Predicts Bush Victory

In one of the more unusual analyses of this presidential campaign, The Hill published a prediction of victory by George Bush in today’s race. That may not sound unusual, but when the pundit making the prediction turns out to be John Kerry’s chief pollster Mark Mellman, it raises a few eyebrows:

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/110204.aspx

[Begin Mellman excerpt] "First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation?s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The ?misery index? is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote." [End Mellman excerpt]

Nor does Mellman stop there. Much has been made about Bush’s approval ratings and the “right direction/wrong direction” polling during this cycle, and how both have consistently run negatively towards Bush’s re-election chances. Mellman doesn’t buy that either, and explains that those numbers have to be significantly further south for them to portend an early end to Bush’s career:

[Begin Mellman excerpt] "Bush?s approval ratings are also indicative of the difficulties Kerry faces. It is certainly true that the average incumbent who has been reelected has had a much higher job approval rating ? 62 percent. Bush?s approval rating is now about 49 percent. Yet the last time an incumbent was beaten ? Bush?s father ? just 33 percent approved of his performance. When Carter was defeated, he had an approval rating of only 37 percent. On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.

We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

Only 39 percent give the economy a positive rating, a problem for the incumbent. Yet in 1992, only about 10 percent were positive about the economy. [End Mellman excerpt]

Remember, too, that Bush 41 only lost his re-election bid due to a strong independent campaign by H. Ross Perot which sucked out the right-center voters from underneath the Republican incumbent. Most models showed that even with the internal issue polls where they were, Bush 41 had a good shot at winning a second term.

Mellman then delivers a shocking prediction, for a Democratic pollster – Bush wins by three points in the popular vote, a gap that not only guarantess an Electoral College win but also wide enough to discourage post-election lawsuits:

[Begin Mellman excerpt]"Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated." [End Mellman excerpt]

This poll result sounds much more credible than anything else I’ve heard, given the source and the testimony against interests.

[EDIT: The last sentence of the Mellman article makes it ambiguous whether he was endorsing the 3% Bush win when he cited the “expert forecasting model” - although, given he’s a pollster, he would likely be smiling more for being correct than for a Kerry win…]

One more little reminder, for both Donkeys and Elephant, courtesy of Michael Totten:

ELECTION DAY REMINDERS: Let?s get a couple of things out of the way before today?s votes are counted.

You have the right to vote. You do not have the right to see the man of your choice in the White House.

If George W. Bush wins the election, the world will still spin on its axis. Canada will not grant you asylum. If John Kerry wins the election, America will still be America. Australia will not grant you asylum.

People who vote for the other guy aren?t stupid, brainwashed, or evil. They are your friends and family. Someone you love will almost certainly cancel your vote. (My wife cancels out mine.)

If, by some chance, everyone you know votes for the loser it won?t mean the election was stolen. It will only show that you live in a bubble.

If this thing is close (the victor could easily win by 0.1 percent) try not to read too much into it. We?ll still be closely divided.

If the election doesn?t go your way, don?t pop off as though America were Guatemala under the generals. You?ll get lots of attention, but it won?t be the kind you want. People will laugh, not near you but at you.
posted at 11:09 AM by Michael Totten Permalink

An earlier poster remarked about the “rock the vote” promo pushed by MTV. I remember the first big push by MTV. It was for the 1992 Presidential election. Young people turned out about 33% that year. Each successive four years has been about the same.

That is not to say that this year will not produce a larger youth turnout. I think it will. How much is anyones guess. If it is a full five points more, say 38% that would indeed be huge. However, I don’t think the additional 5% who turn out will all be for John Kerry? If 8 million more young people were registered to vote and 38% of them actually vote (which is high) that means about 3 million newly registered young people will vote.

Out of the total I would expect John Kerry to draw about 60% or so. That means he gets an additional 1.8 million votes nation wide. President Bush gets the remaining 1.2 million (left Nader out).Will those 600,000 votes make a difference in the election? They could depending upon where the newly registered voters live, as some states report less voeter registration this year, not more. However, I think it will largely be countered by the Evangelical vote which will turn out in large numbers at least 85% for President Bush.

It really does come down to who can get their people to the polls.

How to spot an early winner:

Look at New Hampshire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. If President Bush wins any of these three early reporting states, he is going to win the election! If they are even close, but they all go for Kerry the President is still looking good.

Beyond that it’s anyones guess at this point. The only prediction I will make is that I think the election will be decided sooner rather than later. I don’t see a replay of what happened four years ago.

I think a clear winner will emerge no later than 1:00am.

Yep. You’re right. There is no point in me bringing anything up that would go against Bush or anyone voting for him. So there is no reason for me to even keep posting on here, as it will constantly be denounced for whatever reason.

Turnout is huge as of now. It all depends on the new voters as most polls depend on past voters who are considred likely to vote.

I think Kerry popular vote - bush electoral.

Sadly Bush again…

I need to get my ass into another graduate program after this masters so I don’t get drafted when we invade Iran.

My guess is a 55% chance of a Kerry win.

The odds of Bush carrying NJ are low; the only pollster which has had it close has been Strategic Vision.

Pennsylvania is probably (4/3) going to Kerry. Ohio is likely (5/4) Bush. Wisconsin and MN are likely Kerry. I think NM will go by a hair to Kerry and I would be quite surprised if Hawaii went to Bush. I’d give a slight edge (6/5) to Kerry in NH based on the recent polling although it is a republican leaning state, and I’d say the same-- same odds too-- for Iowa.

That leaves Florida. In both cases there seem to be a minimal number of undecideds and the more reliable pollsters are not only within the margin of error on nearly all of the polls of the last couple weeks, but within a point or two. Comparing the data to last election is difficult since there are far fewer undecideds at this point than last time, which would seem to be a minor plus for Bush, given how they broke last time. Since I don’t want to be another asshole who says that turnout will decide it, I’ll guess Kerry by a 47 votes but with near even odds.

These are my guesses. It’ll be fun to how inaccurate (or maybe even accurate?!?) my guesses were.