When the "WLI(Weekly Leading Index) Growth Change" has dropped below -10, it has been 100% accurate that there will be a recession. It has been accurate for roughly 50 years now. Along with the information that Headhunter presented in the "Baltic Dry Index" thread, this points to some very difficult times ahead for all of us. This link is where you can see the WLI Gr. Index. It's been dropping since the end of April.