Do You Understand Statistics

[quote]jjackkrash wrote:

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
Worse, a lot of times the primary data collection was done poorly, so even if the researcher is really sharp or has a good statistician, they might be analyzing data with lots of errors in it.[/quote]

You mean minimum-wage or unpaid interns acting as primary data collectors might sometimes just turn in bullshit rather than actually collect real data?
[/quote]

Actually, I think most of them mean well. Nobody tries to fuck up. It’s just hard, when you’re hand-entering data from 23 questionnaires into a database, to type every point in correctly. This wouldn’t be AS big of an issue if physicians and PIs knew that they should invest in a good data manager who built hard-stops into their data entry program, so obvious errors would be caught (i.e. trying to enter someone’s weight as 2100 instead of 210). But most physicians and PIs, from what I’ve seen, are rather ignorant of such issues.

Worse, they are intellectually dishonest (not that this is THAT surprising) and, if they got a result using crappy data and the error is discovered, they might just go ahead and report the false data.

Seriously, this stuff happens. A lot.

[quote]spar4tee wrote:

[quote]jjackkrash wrote:

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
Worse, a lot of times the primary data collection was done poorly, so even if the researcher is really sharp or has a good statistician, they might be analyzing data with lots of errors in it.[/quote]

You mean minimum-wage or unpaid interns acting as primary data collectors might sometimes just turn in bullshit rather than actually collect real data?
[/quote]
lol[/quote]

You see some crazy claims. The supplement industry and the cosmetic industry are probably the worst offenders I can think of in terms of junk science, or claims that involve no real science at all. And huge markups for products which don’t even disclose how much of the “active ingredient” they contain. The old proprietary blend deal, whatever that is.

Most of you are men, so you probably don’t notice the cosmetic ads as much. Even if there’s something that has some data behind it like it contains Retinoids or Glycolic Acid, the markup on creams that have these very cheap ingredients is astounding. For example, you can get prescription strength Retin-A, or do your own glycolic acid peel at home for literally pennies per use but women will pay crazy prices for brand name creams. Being uninformed can be expensive.

It’s often telling to see who funded the “study.”

On a related note, do you notice an increase in people giving advice or recommending things on blogs and such when it isn’t always clear if they are receiving some form of monetary compensation or at least free product? At least when you come to a site like Tnation, you aren’t surprised when contributors/ sponsored writers recommend Biotest supplements. This is a supplement company. If people think it’s unbiased advice, then that’s up to them. I see it a lot on blogs where people review or recommend products and their relationship with the companies is a lot less clear. Am I the only person who feels like the blog world is becoming one big ad?

I mentioned this in another thread, but much of what we read in the newspapers or hear on TV is written by PR firms, or has some monetary tie in with the conglomerate who owns the news source. The big news story is really an ad for some show on their other network, or is hype from a PR firm who may just get their copy included because they need a few seconds of filler, or more likely because money is changing hands.

[quote]LoRez wrote:
I don’t know a whole lot about study design and the things that are often screwed up. What kind of things do people often screw up? What kinds of things are done wrong?[/quote]

Oh, jeez. Where do I begin?

  1. Study designs that don’t actually answer the question:

Mr. Investigator wants to know if a certain lab assay is reproducible in two different laboratories. He recruits a sample of men in Lab A, draws blood, and measure Biomarker Z using Magical Assay X. His colleague recruits a sample of men in Lab B across the country, draws blood, and measures Biomarker Z using Magical Assay X.

Problem: if we don’t have measurements taken on the same PEOPLE, there is no way to know if the variability is due to differences between the lab measurements, or due to actual differences in the people! It was like weighing 20 men in one city, weighing 20 different men in another city, and then concluding that the scales were different because we got a different average weight. I was absolutely floored that they had not thought of this in the design. That doesn’t even take a statistician to figure out, that takes common sense.

  1. Not really understanding how analysis works:

I want to compare the distribution of a particular variable (say, Max Bench Press) between two groups (say, two football teams). Team A has a bunch of kids who all bench between 225 and 315 pounds. Team B has a bunch of kids who bench between 225-315 and one kid who benches 500 pounds.

If I do a standard t-test comparing the means of the two groups, I will probably get a significant difference and conclude that Team B has a higher average bench press than Team A.

That’s a flawed conclusion. What’s really going on is that they have essentially the same distribution with one monstrously strong kid (see below on outliers). You should not just “throw out” that kid; you should use a different kind of test (rank-sum test, known as either the Wilcoxon test or the Mann-Whitney test) that is less sensitive to extreme observations but still tests whether the distributions have the same center.

Most people don’t have a clue that this test even exists.

  1. Doing the right type of analysis, but doing it wrong:

I want to create a regression model because I think several variables influence the relationship between my exposure of interest and my outcome. Model building is a VERY inexact science, but suppose my main question of interest is whether meat consumption is associated with cancer risk. I make a regression model with cancer as the outcome, meat consumption as the primary predictor, and then I decide to add more variables to the model based on whether they have significant relationships with cancer.

Wrong, chief. I should be adding variables to the model based on whether they have any effect on the meat-cancer relationship, since THAT is my primary research question. Most investigators just put everything that’s significantly related to their outcome of interest into the model.

  1. Inappropriate treatment of outliers:

Scientists should note the presence of outliers in a dataset, and POSSIBLY remove them from analysis depending on the reason that they occurred. But people will often make that decision based on how much the outlier affects the study results. Wrong answer, homeboy. That outlier is one of the most valuable data points, and taking it out will bias your results. You ONLY take it out if there’s some biological reason (like, the value was impossible, or the lab assay was done wrong) to do so. If it’s making your statistical results unstable, then you might consider a different statistical technique (transforming the data or a nonparametric test), but you absolutely should NOT remove it just because it’s an outlier and you don’t like the way it influenced your results.

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:

Most people don’t have a clue that this test even exists.

[/quote]

Wut? I thought most people with any statistical knowledge knew about distribution appropriate tests and the uses for either parametric or non-parametric ones!

[quote]RATTLEHEAD wrote:

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
Most people don’t have a clue that this test even exists.
[/quote]
Wut? I thought most people with any statistical knowledge knew about distribution appropriate tests and the uses for either parametric or non-parametric ones![/quote]

You’re assuming that people have statistical knowledge.

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:

[quote]RATTLEHEAD wrote:

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
Most people don’t have a clue that this test even exists.
[/quote]
Wut? I thought most people with any statistical knowledge knew about distribution appropriate tests and the uses for either parametric or non-parametric ones![/quote]

You’re assuming that people have statistical knowledge.[/quote]

Touche.

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
2. Not really understanding how analysis works:

I want to compare the distribution of a particular variable (say, Max Bench Press) between two groups (say, two football teams). Team A has a bunch of kids who all bench between 225 and 315 pounds. Team B has a bunch of kids who bench between 225-315 and one kid who benches 500 pounds.

If I do a standard t-test comparing the means of the two groups, I will probably get a significant difference and conclude that Team B has a higher average bench press than Team A.

That’s a flawed conclusion. What’s really going on is that they have essentially the same distribution with one monstrously strong kid (see below on outliers). You should not just “throw out” that kid; you should use a different kind of test (rank-sum test, known as either the Wilcoxon test or the Mann-Whitney test) that is less sensitive to extreme observations but still tests whether the distributions have the same center.

Most people don’t have a clue that this test even exists.

[/quote]

Most times one outlier will not affect the t-test as it is quite robust. In your example, as long as you have a large sample size (30+) then one kid who can lift 500 won’t have any influence on the outcome.

Moreover- in my experience, the nonparas typically mimic the results of the paras.

jnd

I took a D&A of Experiments class and for the final project we were supposed to collect data for a month, and I didn’t collect the data, so I did my project on how to realistically fake data to support you claims. I got an A.

[quote]csulli wrote:
I have a bachelor’s degree in statistics lol. I’ve already forgotten more about statistics than most people will ever even learn. That being said, I never bother looking at the raw data or methods or whatever is available to back up some study related to strength training. I just assume it’s bullshit from the get go.

Relatively speaking there are very, very few studies on anything related to our subculture that have any validity to them lol. If it’s something legit, I figure I’ll hear about it in multiple studies from multiple places, at which point I may actually delve deeper (e.g. creatine).

I would also add multicollinearity to your list of statistics buzz words. It’s an extremely important one that most people probably would not know to think about.[/quote]

That’s pretty much where I’m at with any applied S&C study, especially if it’s in the NSCA journal. I was going for buzzwords that people may have ran into in a basic college stats class, econ, ect. collinear might be a bit much to expect with the general population, when I mentioned regression it was more along the lines of “do you realize that an r^2 value between cell phones and cancer does not prove anything”?

[quote]Powerpuff wrote:
^ One more thing. I like to tell them that I took a survey of all the women in my ballet class and found that 8 out of 10 of them prefer the color pink. So now I can assume that 8 out of 10 people prefer pink. … Yeah. They are pretty quick to point out the holes in that idea, but unfortunately that’s about the quality of a lot of the studies we hear cited on TV. Just teaching people about problems with sample selection and all the ways we can introduce bias would be a positive thing. [/quote]

That’s good shit. Stats aren’t hard to understand from a practical level, and there’s no reason kids shouldn’t be exposed at an earlier age. It’s going to be more useful in their development than reading Dickens. Keep up the good work and maybe someday we will have a future where quacks can’t make a living.

[quote]Powerpuff wrote:
It’s often telling to see who funded the “study.”

On a related note, do you notice an increase in people giving advice or recommending things on blogs and such when it isn’t always clear if they are receiving some form of monetary compensation or at least free product? At least when you come to a site like Tnation, you aren’t surprised when contributors/ sponsored writers recommend Biotest supplements. This is a supplement company. If people think it’s unbiased advice, then that’s up to them. I see it a lot on blogs where people review or recommend products and their relationship with the companies is a lot less clear. Am I the only person who feels like the blog world is becoming one big ad?

I mentioned this in another thread, but much of what we read in the newspapers or hear on TV is written by PR firms, or has some monetary tie in with the conglomerate who owns the news source. The big news story is really an ad for some show on their other network, or is hype from a PR firm who may just get their copy included because they need a few seconds of filler, or more likely because money is changing hands.
[/quote]

You mean I don’t need DeadSquat^TM bar to do assistance work?

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:

[quote]jjackkrash wrote:

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:
Worse, a lot of times the primary data collection was done poorly, so even if the researcher is really sharp or has a good statistician, they might be analyzing data with lots of errors in it.[/quote]

You mean minimum-wage or unpaid interns acting as primary data collectors might sometimes just turn in bullshit rather than actually collect real data?
[/quote]

Actually, I think most of them mean well. Nobody tries to fuck up. It’s just hard, when you’re hand-entering data from 23 questionnaires into a database, to type every point in correctly. This wouldn’t be AS big of an issue if physicians and PIs knew that they should invest in a good data manager who built hard-stops into their data entry program, so obvious errors would be caught (i.e. trying to enter someone’s weight as 2100 instead of 210). But most physicians and PIs, from what I’ve seen, are rather ignorant of such issues.

Worse, they are intellectually dishonest (not that this is THAT surprising) and, if they got a result using crappy data and the error is discovered, they might just go ahead and report the false data.

Seriously, this stuff happens. A lot.[/quote]

What do you think of issues regarding submission bias? Where if a study doesn’t say what you want it to you don’t submit it. Is this a real problem or do you think it’s an exaggerated problem?

[quote]CroatianRage wrote:
What do you think of issues regarding submission bias? Where if a study doesn’t say what you want it to you don’t submit it. Is this a real problem or do you think it’s an exaggerated problem?
[/quote]

Absolutely, it’s a real problem.

Negative studies provide information just like positive studies, but if negative studies are not published, we only see the positive studies, and continue to pursue a particular treatment when there might be just as much evidence against it as there is evidence for it.

Related: over-reliance on and incorrect interpretation of p-values. A p-value is a useful tool, and absolutely a piece of the puzzle in study results. But people look at them as this magical catch-all, where if p<0.05 that means our result is “significant” and if p>0.05 it’s “not significant.”

A p-value is, in a nutshell, the probability that the observed set of outcomes would have occurred under the null hypothesis.

Suppose that I want to test a hypothesis that professional football players can bench press more than construction workers. I take a random sample of professional football players and a random sample of construction workers, and I test the max bench press of both groups. I calculate the mean and standard deviation in each group, perform a t-test, and get a p-value of 0.05. That means that, on average, if the distribution of max bench press in professional football players is the same as the distribution of max bench press in construction workers, I would have seen a difference “as large or larger” than the one observed in my study 5% of the time.

So, if professional football players and construction workers really DO bench the same thing (on average, in the entire population), once every 20 times I will perform that study and get a p-value less than 0.05, which is the arbitrarily chosen line most people use for statistical significance in scientific studies. This is a nuance worth understanding that most folks choose to ignore. They just see p<0.05 and say “Great, there’s a significant difference between the groups, let’s publish the paper.”

[quote]jnd wrote:
Most times one outlier will not affect the t-test as it is quite robust. In your example, as long as you have a large sample size (30+) then one kid who can lift 500 won’t have any influence on the outcome.

Moreover- in my experience, the nonparas typically mimic the results of the paras.
[/quote]

(*Edit: I had kind of a dickhead comment here and have removed it. It was a bit too snooty and elitist for the tone I meant to convey. I apologize)

As for the first comment, that is a nuance many people do not understand. Even those with a fair amount of research experience.

As for the second comment…

Nonparametric results agree with parametric results in datasets where the proper assumptions are met for both. I spent a couple of years doing proofs showing that they do provide equivalent results for normal, balanced datasets. They should match in that scenario.

The problem is that people apply parametric tests to datasets where the assumptions for the parametric test are violated, when a nonparametric test would be more appropriate.

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:

[quote]jnd wrote:
Most times one outlier will not affect the t-test as it is quite robust. In your example, as long as you have a large sample size (30+) then one kid who can lift 500 won’t have any influence on the outcome.

Moreover- in my experience, the nonparas typically mimic the results of the paras.
[/quote]

(*Edit: I had kind of a dickhead comment here and have removed it. It was a bit too snooty and elitist for the tone I meant to convey. I apologize)

As for the first comment, that is a nuance many people do not understand. Even those with a fair amount of research experience.

As for the second comment…

Nonparametric results agree with parametric results in datasets where the proper assumptions are met for both. I spent a couple of years doing proofs showing that they do provide equivalent results for normal, balanced datasets. They should match in that scenario.

The problem is that people apply parametric tests to datasets where the assumptions for the parametric test are violated, when a nonparametric test would be more appropriate.[/quote]

So, what are the odds that reading statistics talk gives a person tired head?

[quote]twojarslave wrote:
I believe that having an intuitive feel for plucking good information out of the sea of bullshit is an increasingly valuable skill to have.
[/quote]

this~

[quote]ActivitiesGuy wrote:

[quote]CroatianRage wrote:
What do you think of issues regarding submission bias? Where if a study doesn’t say what you want it to you don’t submit it. Is this a real problem or do you think it’s an exaggerated problem?
[/quote]

Absolutely, it’s a real problem.

Negative studies provide information just like positive studies, but if negative studies are not published, we only see the positive studies, and continue to pursue a particular treatment when there might be just as much evidence against it as there is evidence for it.

Related: over-reliance on and incorrect interpretation of p-values. A p-value is a useful tool, and absolutely a piece of the puzzle in study results. But people look at them as this magical catch-all, where if p<0.05 that means our result is “significant” and if p>0.05 it’s “not significant.”

A p-value is, in a nutshell, the probability that the observed set of outcomes would have occurred under the null hypothesis.

Suppose that I want to test a hypothesis that professional football players can bench press more than construction workers. I take a random sample of professional football players and a random sample of construction workers, and I test the max bench press of both groups. I calculate the mean and standard deviation in each group, perform a t-test, and get a p-value of 0.05. That means that, on average, if the distribution of max bench press in professional football players is the same as the distribution of max bench press in construction workers, I would have seen a difference “as large or larger” than the one observed in my study 5% of the time.

So, if professional football players and construction workers really DO bench the same thing (on average, in the entire population), once every 20 times I will perform that study and get a p-value less than 0.05, which is the arbitrarily chosen line most people use for statistical significance in scientific studies. This is a nuance worth understanding that most folks choose to ignore. They just see p<0.05 and say “Great, there’s a significant difference between the groups, let’s publish the paper.” [/quote]

Thank you. I understand this is a problem but was unsure if it was exaggerated or not. A huge beef I have with the scientific method (not really the method, more the researchers) is it’s often bastardized to try to prove a hypothesis instead of testing it. For example, if your drug does well in one clinical trial and fails in 10 previous trials then you go on to only publish the success it is entirely misleading to the public and a black eye to to the scientific community.

[quote]Bronco_XIII wrote:

[quote]Powerpuff wrote:
It’s often telling to see who funded the “study.”

On a related note, do you notice an increase in people giving advice or recommending things on blogs and such when it isn’t always clear if they are receiving some form of monetary compensation or at least free product? At least when you come to a site like Tnation, you aren’t surprised when contributors/ sponsored writers recommend Biotest supplements. This is a supplement company. If people think it’s unbiased advice, then that’s up to them. I see it a lot on blogs where people review or recommend products and their relationship with the companies is a lot less clear. Am I the only person who feels like the blog world is becoming one big ad?

I mentioned this in another thread, but much of what we read in the newspapers or hear on TV is written by PR firms, or has some monetary tie in with the conglomerate who owns the news source. The big news story is really an ad for some show on their other network, or is hype from a PR firm who may just get their copy included because they need a few seconds of filler, or more likely because money is changing hands.
[/quote]

You mean I don’t need DeadSquat^TM bar to do assistance work?
[/quote]

I can only say that 100% of 110 pound female BBers named Powerpuff have a strong preference for using a Trap Bar. Though she has no experience with that particular trap bar, we can safely conclude that pretty much everyone here could use one.

This is a tangent from the stats discussion, but it’s relevant related to what often qualifies as newsworthy, and the gullibility of the public.

We should be skeptical of the numbers we often hear in the news or in advertisements, since these “studies” often have very little to do with scientific inquiry, and more about making claims to sell a product, or sadly using statistics to bolster a lawsuit.

This speaks to what determines the content of the news in the first place. I mentioned the role of PR firms. It’s a bit dated, but still good to know. The Submarine