Death Penalty and USSC Activism

On deterrance:

http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2005_02_27-2005_03_05.shtml#1109966846

Juveniles, the Death Penalty & Deterrence:

Justice Kennedy’s majority opinion in Roper v. Simmons maintains that the deterrence argument for the death penalty apply with “lesser force” to juveniles. Kennedy writes: “it is unclear whether the death penalty has a significant or even measurable deterrent effect on juveniles,” and notes that, as a general matter, “juveniles will be less susceptible to deterrence” than adults.

Interestingly enough, the facts of the case, as described in Kennedy’s own opinion, suggest that criminal sanctions do have a potential deterrent effect on juveniles:

[i]There is little doubt that Simmons was the instigator of the crime. Before its commission Simmons said he wanted to murder someone. In chilling, callous terms he talked about his plan, discussing it for the most part with two friends, Charles Benjamin and John Tessmer, then aged 15 and 16 respectively. Simmons proposed to commit burglary and murder by breaking and entering, tying up a victim, and throwing the victim off a bridge. [b]Simmons assured his friends they could ?get away with it? because they were minors.[/b] [Emphasis added.][/i]

In other words, Simmons sought to induce other juveniles to participate in his crimes by telling them they need not fear criminal prosecution. This argument would have been unnecessary were his friends not deterred, at least in part, by such threats. From this proposition it is but a small step to assume that the severity of the criminal sanction – death as opposed to a set jail term – could have some deterrent effect on the margin. This does not mean that capital punishment for juveniles is a good idea, but it does suggest that Justice Kennedy may have been a bit too quick to dismiss the potential for deterrence. Indeed, his own recital of the facts should have raised a red flag on this point.

BTW, the facts of this case were particularly egregious, in that the crime itself was particularly cruel and unusual – the defendants were guilty of tying up a woman and then throwing her in a river to drown like a dog. For kicks, as far as I can discern.

On the “cruel and unusual” aspect, I fail to see how it can be cruel and unusual to execute a 17-year old but not an 18-year old. This isn’t a statute that makes an arbitrary distinction – this is the court reading a moral rule into the Constitution, and it seems completely untenable.

On the thing that really annoyed me most from a legal perspective – the use of “international standards of decency” in a U.S. constitutional law case – here are dueling excerpts from the Kennedy majority, Scalia dissent (brilliant) and O’Connor dissent:

The use of “international opinion” in today’s death penalty decision.
Justice Kennedy, writing for the majority in Roper v. Simmons ( ROPER V. SIMMONS ), justifies the use of “international opinion” in constitutional decisionmaking:

[i]It is proper that we acknowledge the overwhelming weight of international opinion against the juvenile death penalty, resting in large part on the understanding that the instability and emotional imbalance of young people may often be a factor in the crime. See Brief for Human Rights Committee of the Bar of England and Wales et al. as Amici Curiae 10?11. The opinion of the world community, while not controlling our outcome, does provide respected and significant confirmation for our own conclusions.

Over time, from one generation to the next, the Constitution has come to earn the high respect and even, as Madison dared to hope, the veneration of the American people. See The Federalist No. 49, p. 314 (C. Rossiter ed. 1961). The document sets forth, and rests upon, innovative principles original to the American experience, such as federalism; a proven balance in political mechanisms through separation of powers; specific guarantees for the accused in criminal cases; and broad provisions to secure individual freedom and preserve human dignity. These doctrines and guarantees are central to the American experience and remain essential to our present-day self-definition and national identity. Not the least of the reasons we honor the Constitution, then, is because we know it to be our own. It does not lessen our fidelity to the Constitution or our pride in its origins to acknowledge that the express affirmation of certain fundamental rights by other nations and peoples simply underscores the centrality of those same rights within our own heritage of freedom.[/i]

Justice Scalia responds:

[i]I do not believe that approval by ?other nations and peoples? should buttress our commitment to American principles any more than (what should logically follow) disapproval by ?other nations and peoples? should weaken that commitment. More importantly, however, the Court?s statement flatly misdescribes what is going on here. Foreign sources are cited today, not to underscore our ?fidelity? to the Constitution, our ?pride in its origins,? and ?our own [American] heritage.? To the contrary, they are cited to set aside the centuries-old American practice?a practice still engaged in by a large majority of the relevant States?of letting a jury of 12 citizens decide whether, in the particular case, youth should be the basis for withholding the death penalty. What these foreign sources ?affirm,? rather than repudiate, is the Justices? own notion of how the world ought to be, and their diktat that it shall be so henceforth in America. The Court?s parting attempt to downplay the significance of its extensive discussion of foreign law is unconvincing. ?Acknowledgment? of foreign approval has no place in the legal opinion of this Court unless it is part of the basis for the Court?s judgment?which is surely what it parades as today.[/i]

Justice O’Connor, who also dissents, looks at it differently:

Over the course of nearly half a century, the Court has consistently referred to foreign and international law as relevant to its assessment of evolving standards of decency. See Atkins, 536 U.S., at 317, n. 21; Thompson, 487 U.S., at 830?831, and n. 31 (plurality opinion); Enmund, 458 U.S., at 796?797, n. 22; Coker, 433 U.S., at 596, n. 10 (plurality opinion); Trop, 356 U.S., at 102?103 (plurality opinion). This inquiry reflects the special character of the Eighth Amendment, which, as the Court has long held, draws its meaning directly from the maturing values of civilized society. Obviously, American law is distinctive in many respects, not least where the specific provisions of our Constitution and the history of its exposition so dictate. … But this Nation?s evolving understanding of human dignity certainly is neither wholly isolated from, nor inherently at odds with, the values prevailing in other countries. On the contrary, we should not be surprised to find congruence between domestic and international values, especially where the international community has reached clear agreement?expressed in international law or in the domestic laws of individual countries?that a particular form of punishment is inconsistent with fundamental human rights. At least, the existence of an international consensus of this nature can serve to confirm the reasonableness of a consonant and genuine American consensus. The instant case presents no such domestic consensus, however, and the recent emergence of an otherwise global consensus does not alter that basic fact.

One more great excerpt from the Scalia dissent:

In an attempt to keep afloat its implausible assertion of national consenus, the Court throws overboard a propositon well established in our Eighth Amendment jurisprudence. ?It should be observed,? the Court says, ?that the Stanford Court should have considered those States that had abandoned the death penalty altoghether as part of the consensus against the juvenile death penalty? a State?s decision to bar the death penalty altogether of necessity demonstrates a judgment that the death penalty is in appropriate for all offenders, including juveniles.? Ante, at 20. The insinuation of the Court?s new method of counting contradicts only ?the Stanford Court? is misleading. None of our cases dealing with an alleged constitutional limitation on the death penalty has counted, as States supporting a consensus in favor of that limitation, States that have eliminated the death penalty entirely. [Cites omitted.] And with good reason. Consulting States that bar the death penalty concerning the necessity of making an exception to the penalty for offenders under 18 is rather like including old-order Amishmen in a consumer-preference poll on the electric car. Of course they don?t like it, but that sheds no light whatever on teh point at issue. That 12 States favor no execution says something about consensus against the death penalty, but nothing - absolutely nothing - about consensus that offenders under 18 deseve special immunity from such a penalty. In repealing the death penalty, those 12 States considered none of the factors that the Court puts forth as determinative of teh issue before us today - lower culpability of the yong, inherent recklessness, lack fo capacity for considered judgment, etc. What might be relevant, perhaps, is how many of those States permit 16- and 17-year-old offenders to be treated as adults with respect to non-capital offenses. (They all do; indeed, some even require that juveniles as young as 14 be tried as adults of theiy are charged with murder. [Footnotes deleted.]) The attempt by the Court to turn its remarkable minority consensus into a faux majority by counting Amishmen is an act of nomological desperation.

Life imprisonment…to me seems a lot more cruel. Just seems like it would be hell on earth compared to a quick and painless death.

And one interesting commentary from a University of San Diego law professor, from today’s Wall Street Journal opinion section:

Supreme Chaos

By ROBERT F. NAGEL
March 7, 2005; Page A18

The Supreme Court has struck down laws in 20 states that had permitted the death penalty for murderers who committed their crime while 17 years of age. This decision, Roper v. Simmons, was greeted with the usual stirrings of admiration and excitement on NPR and in other organs of respectable commentary. Predictably the adjective “landmark” was trotted out to describe the majority’s opinion and, just as predictably, “angry” to describe Justice Antonin Scalia’s dissent. How ordinary all this has become!

There is, first of all, the garish dissonance between the Court’s lofty concerns about justice and the miserable reality that actually gave rise to the case. Christopher Simmons, whose crime is the occasion for Justice Anthony Kennedy’s musings about “the dignity of all persons” and “the evolving standards of decency,” told people he wanted to commit a murder and enticed two friends into his plan for murder in part by assuring them that as juveniles they would “get away with it.” He then committed that murder by breaking into a home at 2 a.m., binding a woman with duct tape and electrical wire, and throwing her from a railroad bridge into the river below. All this is calmly recounted by the majority before it proceeds to ruminate – without irony – about the difficulties of deciding whether a juvenile offender is especially blameworthy.

This construction of an edifice of enlightened theorizing over a base of sordid facts is nothing new. Blas? disregard for brutality is apparent, for example, in cases establishing a right to partial birth abortion and invalidating efforts to protect the privacy of rape victims.

Virtually every other aspect of Roper is also now routine: the happy insistence that the meaning of the Constitution “evolves”; the confident assertion that the nature of this evolution is ultimately a matter for the Court’s “own independent judgment”; the reliance on elite opinion as expressed in social science research or international treaties; the distrust of popular decision-making institutions like juries; the departure from prior rulings (in this case, a decision rendered only 15 years earlier); the blithe willingness to settle under the mantle of legal principle such questions as “the age of maturity” – questions that are inherently unprincipled matters of degree; and the nationalization of issues once left to the states, along with the judicialization of policy decisions once thought to be legislative. All this is normal practice. It is the deeply confused and unsettling process that now substitutes for what at one time was conceived of as a set of fundamental, enduring principles that expressed the sovereign will of the people.


In one intriguing respect, however, Roper departs from the modern practice of judicial review. In a number of important cases, involving, for example, disputes about how best to protect religious freedom or the proper limits to the right to abortion, the Court has reacted with anger to efforts by Congress and the states to induce change in constitutional rulings. Disagreement, to put it mildly, is not appreciated. Indeed, some of the justices, including the author of the Roper opinion, have gone so far as to claim that continuing public debate about divisive issues that the Court has attempted to settle can threaten America’s dedication to the rule of law itself.

Oddly, however, in Roper, Justice Kennedy does not even mention that the Supreme Court of Missouri had refused to follow the U.S. Supreme Court’s earlier decision upholding the death penalty for 17-year-olds. Justice Kennedy’s opinion actually affirms that defiant state court decision. Justice Sandra Day O’Connor’s dissent charges that this tolerance will “invite frequent and disruptive” challenges to precedent. Justice Scalia goes further, suggesting that it will destroy stability in the legal system and produce “chaos.”

What can account for the Court’s uncharacteristic lack of concern about this challenge to its supreme authority? Justice Scalia notes that the majority’s “indulgent reaction” may be a natural consequence of its legal methodology. If, he argues, constitutional meaning is not fixed in a text but, instead, is a reflection of passing political sentiments, then “lower courts can look into that mirror as well as we can.” As arresting as this possibility is, it hardly explains why a justice like Anthony Kennedy would resent disagreement over, say, abortion rights, but not over one of the death penalty decisions. Both are unmoored from text and other conventional legal sources.

One possible explanation for the majority’s unconcern is that it does not see defiance by a court as being anarchic to the same degree as defiance by Congress or state legislatures. After all, even the sorts of unmoored legal judgments to which Justice Scalia refers are finally subject to review by the Supreme Court. This explanation assumes that the justices hold not only an optimistic view of the inclinations of lower court judges, but also a rather heroic view of their own capacities. That is, it assumes the justices are convinced that they have the intellectual tools to control any rare judicial defiance that might occur.

There is little doubt that Justice Kennedy, at least, harbors few doubts about the constraining force of the Court’s authority. While announcing a constitutional right to engage in homosexual sodomy – in Lawrence v. Texas, in 2003 – he invoked the breathtakingly broad principle that Americans have a right to those freedoms necessary to define their “concept of existence,” while confidently denying that this reasoning would necessarily end up creating a constitutional right to homosexual marriage. Shortly thereafter the Massachusetts Supreme Court relied on Justice Kennedy’s opinion to create a right to homosexual marriage.

What some members of the Court tend not to appreciate is that they are not in control of their material. The content of their opinions, once unleashed on the world, does not belong to them alone. Not only do other judges have a voice in the ultimate significance of this content, but even the justice who authors an opinion must later decide about its significance in a world altered by that opinion. Justice Kennedy may have to decide about the constitutionality of homosexual marriage at a time when it has become entrenched in Massachusetts and elsewhere in part as a consequence of his decision in the sodomy case.

The Roper case, then, helps us see that the normal practice of constitutional interpretation by the Supreme Court is itself anarchic. Routine decisions, as legalistic as they may seem on the surface, are caldrons of conflicting and uncontrollable possibilities. The justices, contented with their authority, believe they are maintaining order while they are, in fact, setting loose their own kind of chaos.

Mr. Nagel, visiting professor at the University of San Diego Law School, is author of “The Implosion of American Federalism” (Oxford, 2001).

[quote]
100meters wrote:

Well “deterrence” is a moot point since the death penalty in no way deters crime.

States with no death penalty have a lower rate of murder than states with the death penaltly.

80 percent of executions happened in the southern states, those states have murder rates higher than the national average

The northeast had the fewest executions and the lowest murder rate.

Plus murder is a crime of passion in most cases, people aren’t thinking about the death penalty or life in prison when they kill somebody… [/quote]

I’d say the deterrence question is open.

The stuff you quote above isn’t good analysis – for a few major reasons at least. Firstly, not all murders are eligible for the death penalty, even in states that allow it. So looking at “murders” doesn’t give you a good base for comparison – you need to look at murders that qualify for prosecution as “murder in the first degree” (or whatever it’s called in the particular jurisdiction).

Secondly, the analysis you set up would imply that “death penalty” is the only factor that affect the murder rate. You need to do a multi-factor regression analysis of all the possible factors affecting the murder rate, including, but not limited to, poverty rate, percent of population that is male and between the ages of 15 and 30, and education level, and the percentage of crimes that remain unsolved in the state. And probably a lot of other factors too.

Lastly, you need to analyze the death penalty from the perspective of the average criminal when you measure the “deterrence effect” and assume the criminal is rational. What I mean is, assume the criminal can roughly calculate the odds that he would ever have a death sentence actually carried out. I suppose one would start the analysis with the chances of getting caught for a crime that would merit the death penalty, reduce those chances by the chance that it would be plea bargained down, reduce those chances by the chance the jury would not give the death penalty, reduce those chances by the chance the judge would overturn a jury death penalty and install a life sentence in its stead, and reduce those chances by the chance the death penalty imposition would be overturned on appeal (or the law in that state was changed to eliminate the death penalty and all sentences were commuted to life senteces), and reduce that chance by the chance the convict would die in prison before the death penalty was effected.

After doing that, I think you would hit on the expected deterrence rate. Obviously, the first few are more powerfully reductive of the odds than are the last few – but at the end of it, it’s pretty damn long odds that any particular murderer will ever get executed, even in states that have the death penalty.

So, I think we can say there is probably a deterrence effect, that it is probably small, and that it would be greater if we made changes that reduced the odds of any of the above items I pointed out above (or ones I didn’t think of) that reduce the likeliehood that a particular murderer will be executed.

I’d say the deterrence question is open.

The stuff you quote above isn’t good analysis – for a few major reasons at least. Firstly, not all murders are eligible for the death penalty, even in states that allow it. So looking at “murders” doesn’t give you a good base for comparison – you need to look at murders that qualify for prosecution as “murder in the first degree” (or whatever it’s called in the particular jurisdiction).

Secondly, the analysis you set up would imply that “death penalty” is the only factor that affect the murder rate. You need to do a multi-factor regression analysis of all the possible factors affecting the murder rate, including, but not limited to, poverty rate, percent of population that is male and between the ages of 15 and 30, and education level, and the percentage of crimes that remain unsolved in the state. And probably a lot of other factors too.

Lastly, you need to analyze the death penalty from the perspective of the average criminal when you measure the “deterrence effect” and assume the criminal is rational. What I mean is, assume the criminal can roughly calculate the odds that he would ever have a death sentence actually carried out. I suppose one would start the analysis with the chances of getting caught for a crime that would merit the death penalty, reduce those chances by the chance that it would be plea bargained down, reduce those chances by the chance the jury would not give the death penalty, reduce those chances by the chance the judge would overturn a jury death penalty and install a life sentence in its stead, and reduce those chances by the chance the death penalty imposition would be overturned on appeal (or the law in that state was changed to eliminate the death penalty and all sentences were commuted to life senteces), and reduce that chance by the chance the convict would die in prison before the death penalty was effected.

After doing that, I think you would hit on the expected deterrence rate. Obviously, the first few are more powerfully reductive of the odds than are the last few – but at the end of it, it’s pretty damn long odds that any particular murderer will ever get executed, even in states that have the death penalty.

So, I think we can say there is probably a deterrence effect, that it is probably small, and that it would be greater if we made changes that reduced the odds of any of the above items I pointed out above (or ones I didn’t think of) that reduce the likeliehood that a particular murderer will be executed.[/quote]

Well,
ok at best it may slightly deter crime, but I think most likely it does not deter crime. So if you come up with a draw, and factor in the expense to taxpayers of the appeal process, I don’t see a reason to support it. And again I’ll take a literal reading of the 8th and say that the death penalty is a cruel punishment in my opinion - AN ELECTRIC CHAIR- That would seem to be the definition of cruelty, and lethal injection? I’d rather a guy sit in prison for 40-50 years thinking about his mistake everyday than giving him some sleeptime medicine and sending him off to heaven…

How much money does it cost to take care of an executed prisoner? Nothing.

How does capital punishment add to the cost of the appeals process? Most everyone convicted of a serious felony appeals whether it’s a capital offense, or not. That’s a bad argument.

The rest of the country should pick up on what the great State of Texas is doing wrt capital punishment - we put in an ‘express lane’.

[quote]100meters wrote:

Well,
ok at best it may slightly deter crime, but I think most likely it does not deter crime. So if you come up with a draw, and factor in the expense to taxpayers of the appeal process, I don’t see a reason to support it. And again I’ll take a literal reading of the 8th and say that the death penalty is a cruel punishment in my opinion - AN ELECTRIC CHAIR- That would seem to be the definition of cruelty, and lethal injection? I’d rather a guy sit in prison for 40-50 years thinking about his mistake everyday than giving him some sleeptime medicine and sending him off to heaven…

[/quote]

How can you say you are taking a literal reading of the 8th Amendment’s ban on “cruel and unusual punishment” when you interpret that as banning the death penalty – which the Constitution itself explicity imposes twice?

How can you say you are taking a literal reading of the 8th Amendment’s ban on “cruel and unusual punishment” when you interpret that as banning the death penalty – which the Constitution itself explicity imposes twice?[/quote]

1972 FURMAN v. GEORGIA
MR. JUSTICE BRENNAN, concurring…

“…There is, first, a textual consideration raised by the Bill of Rights itself. The Fifth Amendment declares that if a particular crime is punishable by death, a person charged with that crime is entitled to certain procedural protections. We can thus infer that the Framers recognized the existence of what was then a common punishment. We cannot, however, make the further inference that they intended to exempt this particular punishment from the express prohibition of the Cruel and Unusual Punishments Clause. n28 Nor is there any indication in the debates on the Clause that a special exception was to be made for death. If anything, the indication is to the contrary, for Livermore specifically mentioned death as a candidate for future proscription under the Clause. See supra, at 262. Finally, it does not advance analysis to insist that the Framers did not believe that adoption of the Bill of Rights would immediately prevent the infliction of the punishment of death; neither did they believe that it would immediately prevent the infliction of other corporal punishments that, although common at the time, see n. 6, supra, are now acknowledged to be impermissible.”

Just my shared opinion B.B.
I accept the death penalty as the law of the land, it just doesn’t make too much sense to me.

It might be worth noting the language of the 8th Amendment:

It’s not Cruel or Unusual, it’s Cruel and Unusual.

That means that in order to violate the 8th Amendment, the practice must necessarily violate both - if it violates only one, it is not enough.

What is ‘cruel’ can be debated endlessly. The range of tastes are broad, so it would be difficult - or should be difficult - for a court to feel competent to rule on whether a punishment is cruel.

What is much easier to discern is the whether or not the practice is unusual. In this case, executing juveniles is far from unusual. I believe I read that 20 out of 50 states have death penalty statutes applicable to minors (that may not be an accurate recollection, but I know there is a substantial amount of states).

In light of this, how can the practice be Cruel and Unusual? There’s nothing unusual about this punishment, and in light of how the crime in this case was committed, I don’t blame a state for not wanting to exempt a juvenile completely aware of his actions and the consequences of them from the ultimate form of punishment.

As for deterrence, it’s a roundabout. There is no way to statistically measure the crimes that didn’t happen as a result of deterrence; you can only measure the crimes that did occur. Perhaps no crimes were deterred, perhaps thousands were - there is no way of knowing. There are other hints - murder rates per capita, etc. - that might infer trends about deterrence, but ultimately we believe harsh punishments deter bad behavior - witness punitive damages in civil trials and major fines for criminal violations. These are intended to prevent behavior through deterrence, and no one seems to be doubting their effectiveness.

So, deterrence as a principle is one we believe in and will continue to. One way to feel more confident in the deterrence principle is to visit punishment more swiftly and predictably upon wrongdoers - most serious criminals don’t fear the punishment because they know that no matter how heinous the crime they commit, they’ll be coddled by the system. Take this away, and perhaps the deterrence effect might be a little more noticeable.

[quote]100meters wrote:
How can you say you are taking a literal reading of the 8th Amendment’s ban on “cruel and unusual punishment” when you interpret that as banning the death penalty – which the Constitution itself explicity imposes twice?

1972 FURMAN v. GEORGIA
MR. JUSTICE BRENNAN, concurring…

“…There is, first, a textual consideration raised by the Bill of Rights itself. The Fifth Amendment declares that if a particular crime is punishable by death, a person charged with that crime is entitled to certain procedural protections. We can thus infer that the Framers recognized the existence of what was then a common punishment. We cannot, however, make the further inference that they intended to exempt this particular punishment from the express prohibition of the Cruel and Unusual Punishments Clause. n28 Nor is there any indication in the debates on the Clause that a special exception was to be made for death. If anything, the indication is to the contrary, for Livermore specifically mentioned death as a candidate for future proscription under the Clause. See supra, at 262. Finally, it does not advance analysis to insist that the Framers did not believe that adoption of the Bill of Rights would immediately prevent the infliction of the punishment of death; neither did they believe that it would immediately prevent the infliction of other corporal punishments that, although common at the time, see n. 6, supra, are now acknowledged to be impermissible.”

Just my shared opinion B.B.
I accept the death penalty as the law of the land, it just doesn’t make too much sense to me.
[/quote]

This is a classic example of an activist opinion. Luckily, it was merely a concurrence, and not the majority opinion. I appreciate it comes from the USSC, but you can’t tell me that Brennan’s is a literalist’s reading of the 8th Amendment.

I mean, come on – the 5th and 8th amendments were passed at the same time, as part of the Bill of Rights. The Consitution explicitly imposes the death penalty for treason – this was also not touched by the 8th Amendment.

Reading “cruel and unusual” to equal the death penalty explicitly ignores – not only ignores, but turns on its head – the understanding of the phrase at the time the 8th Amendment was actually written and ratified. If that’s not activist, I don’t know what is.

As I stated in my original post, the USSC has explicity changed both the original meaning and the intent of the “cruel and unusual” clause. The clause was originally intended to stop judges from going further than the legislature authorized in terms of punishment, not stop the legislature from setting a punishment. The USSC has taken that and twisted it into a proposition that “cruel and unusual” is meant to reflect some sort of changing moral standard – interpreted by them, of course. That is usurping the legislature’s function and changing the clear meaning of the 8th Amendment – a double whammy of judicial activism (though not by the current court). Roper simply extends the activism.

Uh oh.

Just saw this article this morning.

Now lawyers are citing the recent death penalty ban as grounds for reducing life sentences for minors. “Evolving Standards of Decency” here we go!

Oops. It’s not even a life sentence. It’s a thirty year sentence. I’m dumb.

Maybe I should start a new thread for this, but it seems to fit with some of the posts –

A new paper co-authored by one of the premier liberal law professors at the Univeristy of CHicago, Cass Sunstein, is arguing that there is a strong deterrent effect to the death penalty.

http://aei-brookings.org/publications/abstract.php?pid=922

Here’s the abstract (you can download the whole thing if you follow the link above):

Recent evidence suggests that capital punishment may have a significant deterrent effect, preventing as many as eighteen or more murders for each execution. This evidence greatly unsettles moral objections to the death penalty, because it suggests that a refusal to impose that penalty condemns numerous innocent people to death. Capital punishment thus presents a life-life tradeoff, and a serious commitment to the sanctity of human life may well compel, rather than forbid, that form of punishment. Moral objections to the death penalty frequently depend on a distinction between acts and omissions, but that distinction is misleading in this context, because government is a special kind of moral agent. The familiar problems with capital punishment - potential error, irreversibility, arbitrariness, and racial skew - do not argue in favor of abolition, because the world of homicide suffers from those same problems in even more acute form. The widespread failure to appreciate the life-life tradeoffs involved in capital punishment may depend on cognitive processes that fail to treat “statistical lives” with the seriousness that they deserve.

From the Sunstein paper above, below is a summary of some of the recent deterrence studies – while of course there will be arguments and counter-arguments, I do not think you can faciley claim “the death penalty doesn’t deter murder” as if it is some settled proposition.


For many years, the deterrent effect of capital punishment was sharply disputed. But a great deal of recent evidence strengthens the claim that capital punishment has large deterrent effects. The reason for the shift is that a wave of sophisticated econometric studies have exploited a newly-available form of data, so-called ?panel data? that uses all information from a set of units (states or counties) and follows that data over an extended period of time. A leading study used county-level panel data from 3,054 U.S. counties between 1977 and 1996. The authors find that the murder rate is significantly reduced by both death sentences and executions. The most striking finding is that on average, each execution results in 18 fewer murders.

Other econometric studies also find a substantial deterrent effect. In two papers, Paul Zimmerman uses state-level panel data from 1978 onwards to measure the deterrent effect of execution rates and execution methods. He estimates that each execution deters an average of fourteen murders. Using state-level data from 1977 to 1997, Mocan and Gittings find that each execution deters five murders on average. They also find that increases in the murder rate come from removing people from death row and also from commutations in death sentences. Yet another study, based on state-level data from 1997-1999, finds that a death sentence deters 4.5 murders and an execution deters three murders. The same study investigates the question whether executions deter crimes of passion and murders by intimates. The answer is clear: these categories of murder are deterred by capital punishment. The deterrent effect of the death penalty is also found to be a function of the length of waits on death row, with a murder deterred for every 2.75 years of reduction in the period before execution.

In the period between 1972 and 1976, the Supreme Court produced an effective moratorium on capital punishment, and an extensive study exploits that fact to estimate the deterrent effect. Using state-level data from 1960-2000, the authors make before-and-after comparisons, focusing on the murder rate in each state before and after the death penalty was suspended and reinstated. The authors find a substantial deterrent effect. After suspending the death penalty, 91% of states faced an increase in homicides ? and in 67% of states, the rate was decreased after reinstatement of capital punishment.

A recent study offers more refined findings. Disaggregating the data on a state by state basis, Joanna Shepherd finds that the nation-wide deterrent effect of capital punishment is entirely driven by only six states ? and that no deterrent effect can be found in the twenty-one other states that have restored capital punishment. What distinguishes the six from the twenty-one? The answer lies in the fact that states showing a deterrent effect are executing more people than states that do not. In fact the data show a ?threshold effect?: deterrence is found in states that had at least nine executions between 1977 and 1996. In states below that threshold, no deterrence can be found. This finding is intuitively plausible. Unless executions reach a certain level, murderers may act as if the death is so improbable as not to be worthy of concern. Her main lesson is that once the level of executions reaches a certain level, the deterrent effect of capital punishment is substantial.

All in all, the recent evidence of a deterrent effect from capital punishment seems impressive. But in studies of this kind, it is hard to control for confounding variables, and a degree of doubt inevitably remains. It remains possible that these findings will be exposed as statistical artifacts or will be found to rest on flawed econometric methods. More broadly, skeptics are likely to question the mechanisms by which capital punishment has a deterrent effect. On the skeptical view, many murderers lack a clear sense of the likelihood and perhaps even the existence of executions in their state; further problems for the deterrence claim are introduced by the fact that capital punishment is imposed infrequently and after long delays. In any case many murders are committed in a passionate state that does not lend itself to an all-things-considered analysis on the part of perpetrators.

As mentioned above, and as we discuss in Part IV, these suppositions are in some tension with existing evidence. But let us suppose that these doubts are reasonable. If so, should current findings be deemed irrelevant for purposes of policy and law? That would be an odd conclusion. In regulation as a whole, it is common to embrace some version of the Precautionary Principle -? the idea that steps should be taken to prevent significant harm even if cause-and-effect relationships remain unclear and even if the risk is not likely to come to fruition. Even if we reject strong versions of the Precautionary Principle, it hardly seems sensible that governments should ignore evidence demonstrating a significant possibility that a certain step will save large numbers of innocent lives.

For capital punishment, critics often seem to assume that evidence on deterrent effects should be ignored if reasonable questions can be raised about it. But as a general rule, this is implausible. In most contexts, the existence of reasonable questions is hardly an adequate reason to ignore evidence of severe harm. If it were, many environmental controls would be in serious jeopardy. We do not mean to suggest that government should commit what many people consider to be, prima facie, a serious moral wrong simply on the basis of speculation that this step will do some good. But a degree of reasonable doubt does not seem sufficient to doom capital punishment, if the evidence suggests that significant deterrence occurs.

Personally, I believe the potential (and remember – it’s potential, since even if you live in a Death Penalty state and are committing a 1st degree murder, you might not get caught and sentenced to death) penalty makes little difference to someone just before the act.

However, we could discuss the deterrent effect of the Death Penalty until we turned blue (no pun intended). The fact is there is absolutely no scientific way of measuring that effect, since the number of variables is immense and the values are constantly changing – population changes, the reasons for murder change, judges and juries change, etc. Each of us can have their opinion but we need to admit it’s not based on any fact – it’s just a “gut feel”.

The reason I am firmly against the death penalty is completely different – I’m simply not willing to accept the chance – the very REAL, PROVEN chance – that a state kills an innocent man or woman. We’re not omniscient. We are not supposed to play God. Judges and Juries make mistakes. The appeal process cannot ever be long enough to prevent a string of unfortunate events that lead to somebody innocent getting the needle. Contrary to the discussion about the deterrent effect of the death penalty, nobody can argue that states have killed innocent men and women. And I have a problem with that. A big one. And whatever may be the deterrent effect – I feel it’s not worth it, because there are other ways – many of them scientifically proven to be very effective – to deter murder, that do not involve the risk of killing an innocent person.

Just to chime in:

  1. I think the USSC ruling is absolutely ludicrous, and to even mention international law or opinion wrt American domestic policy or law is deeply destructive and pernicious. Had we consulted international opinion originally, the Constitution would not have been written.

  2. I have become less and less in favor of the death penalty. My major gripe with it is that, unlike Al Shades, the rest of the world is not in possession of “infallible logic.” We make mistakes. Quite a few people are convicted who ought not have been. Further, I would contend that is a fundamental principle of American law that we would rather let a guilty man go free than have an innocent man go to prison. Ostensibly, juries must find a defendant guilty “beyond a reasonable doubt,” and yet we all know that isn’t necessarily true. Perhaps in a post 9-11 world, “beyond a reasonable doubt” has become quaint; perhaps my understanding assumes that crimes are sufficiently innocuous that such a high standard of proof poses no real threat to society.

  3. Rainjack, while there are many things good about the great state of Texas, I’m not sure that the expediency with which death sentences are carried out is one of them. I’d argue that there is some evidence that Texas courts tend to place the burden on the accused, and that perhaps due process isn’t followed with dillgence.

[quote]nephorm wrote:
3) Rainjack, while there are many things good about the great state of Texas, I’m not sure that the expediency with which death sentences are carried out is one of them. I’d argue that there is some evidence that Texas courts tend to place the burden on the accused, and that perhaps due process isn’t followed with dillgence.[/quote]

I’m not an expert on Texas Penal Code, but I believe that the ‘express lane’ to the front of the lethal injection line has some pretty tough prosecutorial standards (is that even a valid term?). One of them is that there has to be 2 or 3 - and I think it’s 3 ‘credible witnesses’ that can identify the accused as the person who committed the capital offense.

But I repeat that I am not an expert wrt the Texas Penal Code. Hell I’m not an expert on very much at all, come to think of it.

I do know we kill a shitload of convicted murderers, though. Maybe I should be, but I’m not that apologetic about it, either.