T Nation

Cryptocurrencies


#121

There are other exchanges that allow for USD/BTC transactions that you can then xfer to a binance/bittrex type site. Coinbase is just the “simplest” with it’s phone app feel and no massive charts to get lost in. IIRC gdax.com is owned by coinbase (or vice versa?) as what would be a proper exchange.

What’s been going on with ETH? Most of me feels like it’s just the good activity from people like dchris offboarding during a big downward surge and the transfer times are way quicker.

But I also just feel like ETH is a more stable longterm technology, so maybe it’s just the evolution of ETH’s framework?


#122

What do you all think about Mr. Buffet’s right hand guy saying BTC is a bubble?


#123

Oh absolutely. Especially at the level to which China and Russia are already involved. I’d guarantee in the next couple years having the ability to crash a trillion dollar system will be akin to economic nuclear war.

That aside, I think economically knowing something is a bubble beforehand can really help defend against it. Once these altcoins start coming to fruition we’ll either see a good shift or a bad one. If it’s a really bad one, the bubble pops hard. But if it’s anything other than a major series of failures, I’d say the first wave will validate cryptos in general and we’ll see a huge surge.


#124

Probably this.


#125

I think Blockchain is here to stay, no doubt. It’s actually quite interesting the thought process behind it. We have tried for long time to make computers do very difficult tasks. That has always been the intent, make a computer compute, quickly, for us. Blockchain, essentially, makes automates, very quickly, rudimentary tasks that we don’t want to do. Thus, smart contracts.

The coin side is very interesting. In the US and other large countries it seems like it’s just an investment, or get rich scheme (what color lambo to buy?!) but for countries where they do not have a stable currency, I think it’s brilliant. If someone wanted to create a trillion dollar industry, they should create an online bank for people in third world countries can store money and use to purchase. With the politicians who think everyone in the world should have internet, this would be a very good opportunity and timing to make this happen.


#126

As far as Munger, Bill Gates said that we’d never need more than 256kb. We are talking about a man who has spent his whole life investing in Fiat currency. A man who was around before the internet. At 94, he won’t be around to see where blockchian, or crypto, will go. I’m imagining an old, nearly senile, man screaming at any sub 50 year old “Graham Value Investing - Graham Value Investing -Graham Value Investing”


#127

I’m not sure that would be viable. What are these people buying the online money with? In mass repressed 3rd world countries, they’re more worried about eating dinner than they are converting the money they don’t have to a more stable version. Add in the rest of the world being able to “invest” and you start to price these people out of even using it very quickly.

Economically speaking the speed/level of growth cryptos have seen recently is 10x the growth required for most economic focused people to instantly say “bubble.” It’s hard to fathom that this level of growth has = bubble for the past however many hundreds of big/small bubbles but it just doesn’t mean that this time, even with growth that makes the tulip bubble look like a small stock shift.


#128

I lived in the 3rd world until my teens. You are thinking about the poorest among the poor. Average people live relatively similar lives as us albeit with a lower standard of living compared to 1st world countries, that’s all.


#129

Even in those situations, you’re still subject to your exchange rate. Once a market is opened for it nobody is going to be trading in things other than BTC or USD. Even if local places offer crypto for local currency they’ll be forced to be subject to the exchange rates and factor that into the price. Then you have to upgrade the hardware of a TON of places. Small businesses of every sort immediately become bigger hack targets which forces the companies to respond with expensive firewalls.

Even on top of all of that, depending on the country you’re in the govt in said nation would be forced to stop it out of fear of even further deflation of the currency and enemies using it to control them.

I think odds aren’t bad that cryptos will rival fiats in day to day use in my lifetime, but I think the first world is going to have to go first. The countries that can “afford” to be the guinea pigs and flush out where govt needs to regulate and where it doesn’t.


#130

I think you’re going to be surprised at how people will be able to get around these things. Also, look up tech development in countries in the South East Asian region. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand etc.


#131

Glad I picked up some more yesterday.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/moneygram-signs-deal-to-work-with-currency-startup-ripple-1515679285


#132

15m increments

God bless volatility.

Edit2: Better picture


#133

Is that Binance? 2.57?! Only hit like 2.23 on Bittrex.


#134

Careful if trading. May be forming H&S.


#135

Wait, they’re actually using $XRP? That’s pretty fucking big news.

http://ir.moneygram.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1054088


#136

Check coinmarketcap.com. There’s an exchange out east that regularly destroys everyone else in Ripple pricing. Not sure if that’ll still be the case with SK announcing intent to mass regulate but they used to be a solid 60-70c higher


#137

Saw this earlier, thought you guys might appreciate. Spitznagel tends to be a straight shooter too.


#138

Lot of very sound points.

For bonus irony points, BTC was ~4000 USD when this article hit. The fact that it peaked at 5x that number would reeeeally change the tone of this guy’s article if he were to write it now.


#139

Maybe. Him and his old colleague Nick Taleb haven’t ruled out any price. In fact, that’s the reason why Taleb has declared shorting it a fools errand.

I can’t make head nor tails of the math, but the advice here is very sound.

In for the long haul or not at all is my assessment of cryptos currently.


#140

Out of interest, assuming you guys wanted to close your positions, would the market be liquid enough to move it fast? If so, how fast?

That’s always been a concern of mine in investing in them.