I think BTC will do very well over the next few decades, but have my doubts about cryptos that don’t have limits about the quantity which will ever exist.
It could do very well over the short term too, but there’s much more room for doubt about that
Edit: unless the quantum computers steal all the coins 
Is crypto an investment or a currency? If it is an investment, then it should hopefully go up in value over time. If it is a currency, you would actually prefer it to inflate slightly over time, which is the opposite of going up in value. If a currency goes up in value or deflates, then there is an incentive to not spend it and thus an economy with deflationary currency tends to stagnate.
Thus, if crypto is a good currency, it has to be a bad investment. But if it is a bad currency, then it’s not much of anything, and also ultimately a bad investment. You might make some argument that it is a good investment (but bad currency) now because it will be a good currency later. But why? Which crypto?
I am interested to hear other perspectives on it and none of the above (even if completely accurate) means that one can’t make good money on it over the short and medium term.
Imo more an investment presently. The ultimate bet is still on societal adoption.
The concept of cryptos almost always creates a hard cap on the number of coins that can be mined. Therefore inflation ala normal currency isn’t possible.
I like to think of cryptos as shares of a company that can be (sometimes) spent as cash.
Inflation tends to have the effect of lowering the value of crypto (or whatever is being inflated) relative to other things since there is more crypto to go around.
That is a tendency, but if dollars are printed faster, you would expect that same mechanism to work for crypto to be more expensive (in terms of dollars)
(Which could be completely opposite from another currency)
Maybe.
“An economy” is difficult to wrap my mind around for crypto. The idea that more trade is necessarily good is not one that I agree with
Also I think what you wrote above is backwards, tho I could be wrong. I thought deflation is the word people use for when demand for currency increases relative to stuff. Like when money seems to disappear because people hide it, don’t trust banks, buy less investments, etc.
All of this leads to the question - why on the part below?
A lot of people buy stocks, real estate, gold for the purpose of avoiding the “inflation tax”. Why would the “inflation tax” be preferable to a currency without one?
Inflation isn’t really necessary, but monetary policy favors it because deflation is a problem. Deflation means that if a car costs $20,000 today, I know it will cost less next year, maybe only $19,000. That means I’m less likely to want to buy the car since I have an incentive to wait. When a lot of people wait, that further reduces the price of the car because demand goes down. That increases deflation and encourages more people to wait longer. It’s a self reinforcing cycle.
As to why everyone waiting is bad, that’s a different topic. On the one hand, some amount of restraint and saving is healthy for the economy as it builds stability and can help to reduce the boom and bust cycle. But currency exists to facilitate and encourage trade. A reduction in trade leads to a reduction in specialization when leads to a general reduction in productivity. If there is no trade, everyone needs to feed, clothe, and shelter himself (I mean as in grow or catch his own food, build his own house, etc.) And that is pretty inefficient, which is why we have currency. But if no one wants to spend the currency, we don’t have currency.
All of that isn’t to say that an inflation tax is a good thing. In particular, when the entity issuing currency is also a net debtor that leads to a conflict of interest. Cryptocurrency gets rid of that problem in theory, but introduces tons of other problems.
The reality is more extreme, yet bunches of people still buy new cars.
I think I get what you’re saying though about the feedback loop
If the idea is that manageable inflation is good since it can at least prevent a deflationary feedback loop, I can’t argue that.
My argumentative instincts tell me to say that I don’t see how a little bit of deflation is worse than a little bit of inflation, it’s the extremes that you would want to avoid
Bitcoin would likely have a slightly deflationary skew (perpetually), which I would like for a currency or investment
Couldn’t speak for all cryptos tho
The reality isn’t more extreme for new cars. I wasn’t talking about buying a 1 year old used car. I mean buying a new car next year instead of this year. On the average, a new car next year will cost more than a new car this year. Somewhat this trend is countered by technology items such as phones and computers where the same model gets cheaper as it gets outdated. Nonetheless, the state of the art iphone is getting more expensive, not cheaper.
The cars example has much in common with the electronics in my view.
A 2020 model might go for more than a 2019 model, but will a new 2019 model go for as much once the 2020 model is released?
The point of that comment from me was that although ‘all things being equal then x will have y effect’ is nice and all, but in reality unknown variables blah blah
I don’t think of deflation as a bad thing just because it can create a feedback loop
Inflation would tend to cause that. Technological improvements can cut both ways cost wise depending on how you look at it.
The confusion you guys are going through is why inflation/deflation/CPI is measured against a theoretical “fixed basket of goods”. They try to control for changes in product mix as much as possible.
Bump!
Not sure if you’re still into it, but this is my bros podcast with Charles Hoskins. He just launched it, so this is the first episode.
Srsly? That’s your Bruddah?
Yep. He was always very smart, hard working and a great intuitive knowledge of computers/language. Throw in some education and 40 years of experience, and there ya go.
I was always like the titties and beer guy of the family. 
Yep. Still holding.
In my family it’s the opposite. Although we look very much alike, I’m the language/science nerd and my brother is the guy who got a bottle broken over his head on three separate occasions.
Aaaaaand THATs why we’re friends!
This one guy… 
Any thoughts on the market cap and circulating supply? Seems pretty high for the price (especially compared to ETH). How much do you think is can grow?
I’m hoping for another irrational bubble driven by new investors that would push the price close to $3. That’s not that impossible as the market cap would be comparable to the Ripple mania of 2017 IIRC.
But then again, I bought my ADA in 2017 so I’m pretty sure I’d sell the majority (not all) of my ADA at somewhere around $2,5 and profit handsomely.
Bought a lot more over the years. All thanks to your suggestion.
Ladies and gentlemen, ADA is approaching $2.
I’m getting nervous, my wife is repeating “sell it now you idiot” for the last two hours.
My bro was adamant to hold till their smart contract stuff hits and it should take off even further.
I think that’s supposed to happen August/September?
I might give him a holler to check if you want.
And congrats on what? 50-100x return?