COVID19: Perspective From A (Sort Of...) Expert-Adjacent Person

This is has improved significantly in the last few years

VPN

… yeah, these are pretty big issues…

In the meantime… taiwan is still working on a road that Chiang Kai shek started in the 50s

2 Likes

It’s still terrible in the more manufacturing based cities. Take a trip to Nanchang and see for yourself.

:joy: :joy: :joy:

IME, the main difference between the people in China and other predominately Chinese populated countries is that the latter just love to whine about things instead of actually doing shit.

I’m gonna go as far as to say this reflects on which ones are the REAL “nanny states”. It sure ain’t China.

EDIT:

I mean, think about this. The CCP bans foreign websites. People keep their mouths shut, get off their asses and get VPNs and the private sector sees the opportunity to cash in and starts making them and selling them at cheaper prices because of the demand (albeit illegally). Other countries will just whine hoping the government will change their policies until they realize it’s not gonna happen and then either accept it or end up buying cheap VPNs from CHINA.

You really need a sense of humour when you look at all this from a macro perspective.

2 Likes

@doogie

You asked for a link previously when I wrote that half of the cases here for a certain day were vaccinated which I wanted to send through email but my email address was deleted.

This is just to show that I wasn’t exaggerating:

“With the delta variant and lesser restrictions, many cases are being reported amongst vaccinated citizens. On July 2, 55% of the newly infected had been vaccinated, the report said. As of July 4, there were 35 serious cases of coronavirus in Israel, compared with 21 on June 19.”

Note that:

  1. We don’t know how long it was after full vaccination when they were infected. A longer period may have reduced this figure.

  2. This is the Delta strain.

  3. It is possible that results are skewed since the virus could have already been incubating amongst mostly vaccinated people prior to June when the Green Pass was abolished.

@Chris_Colucci

I’d like to create a thread specifically about Covid-19 in Australia, our approach to the virus and comparisons between Aus/the rest of the world.

Is the topic thread worthy? Or do I lump it in wth the covid threads here?

What are your thoughts about this?

Many will be arrested, in the past these protestors have been trampled by police on horseback. Most will be charged, heavily fined, given criminal records and perhaps imprisoned (but imprisonment is unlikely).

Also this “Angry residents stormed the city, demanding the premier be sacked and claiming the pandemic was not real” media narrative is highly flawed. The consensus amongst those frustrated like I am is GENERALLY “the pandemic is real, this is a problem… But we need to learn to live it whilst mitigating harm yet keeping the economy/societal mental health/wellbeing stabilised. There is a happy medium that doesn’t enroach upon basic human rights for years on end. This state under stage four, 5km radius etc lockdown for 6 out of the past twelve months. Media narratives cater towards instilling a sense of fear amongst the populace. Yet… in the recent outbreak in NSW hospitals haven’t been at capacity, you’ve had nearly 1,000 cases and two deaths. One person in their seventies and another in their nineties… Both (from my recollection) weren’t vaccinated because federal/state governments have created a sense of fear surrounding the minimally risky astrazenica greater than the pandemic itself”.

Or something like that, there’s far more to the story; but the politics behind it are headspinningly retarded. We’ve had states compete over who can lock down the soonest/who can maintain zero covid for the longest. Twenty months in and we still can’t travel from state to state, yet alone overseas…

However you’ve got say 25-30% of the population like me and the other 70-75% under a spell of fear and misinformation/half facts. That being said, I’m not stupid enough to protest/riot over this and risk ruining my life.

1 Like

I don’t see an issue with that, but it might end up morphing into a bigger “My country/state handled it better/worse than yours”-debate, so good luck.

Unfortunately, Hannity was making such statements in the last days of Feb '20. The exponential function does not care about it, and it seems that for the delta variant the gradient is even steeper.

In Europe the measures last(ed) longer with the population fatality rate of 0,2 - 0,3%. If I’m not mistaken that would be a death toll of 50-75k in AUS. And Australian economy fared (somewhat) better compared to the EU. And Spain and Portugal are (again) shutting down due to the delta. So on average worse restriction for worse outcomes.

Your frustration is understandable, but I’m telling you it could have been much, much worse. Look to Europe for a worst-case scenario.

2 Likes

My state had a seven month lockdown last year.

We also had an initial 2-3 month lockdown, a few week long lockdowns, recently another month in lockdown and JUST after we got out we’ve been plunged back into lockdown.

Economically we appear to be fairly well off due to the price of iron ore skyrocketing. However tons and tons of small businesses have shut shop. Nearly half of all gyms in Victoria closed down last year, others are struggling. My university suffered budget cuts so large my chemistry class consisted of 400+ people.

Jobkeeper payments keep people afloat, though this doesn’t account for otherwise displaced workers/businesses going under. Being complacent in government payouts isn’t a viable, sustainable strategy. The second our federal government ceases to continually dole out payments during month + long lockdowns will be the time when states stop haphazardly shutting down.

Our future economic growth is forecast to stagnate significantly in the coming years. We had an initial good run regarding the first year of the pandemic, but it appears economic growth is now set to damn near stagnate for a while.

I’m aware it could’ve been worse, the death toll could have been far higher. But our vaccine quota/our set targets are now going to be largely unachievable. Due to reasons I’ll specify in my upcoming thread, even when the mortality rate associated with loosening lockdown quotas would be say… 0.001% associated with covid, Australia still won’t open up… State/federal government’s have dug themselves into a hole with this one. Can’t suddenly shift stances regarding this incredibly hot button issue. Every report/news outlet is constantly talking about covid, using buzzwords like “state grapples with new outbreak with three new local cases reported overnight!” With a picture of the state premier in a powerful, serious looking pose…

There’s a huge political spin on this catering towards fear, a newly unveiled nationalistic streak and vested moral superiority.

I believe courts in Spain just ruled the lockdowns “unconstitutional”. Something that could never happen here as Australia/Oceana doesn’t have a human rights charter.

Vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic illness and severe illness, even if you test positive.

Fully vaccinated = almost good to go. Perhaps booster shots will prove as a further deterrent… Perhaps vaccines will be modified yearly akin to how we treat influenza. Regardless Australians are petrified of the vaccine, just wait until Pfizer starts rolling out here and the federal government starts going on about myocarditis “wait for Moderna”…

This isn’t going away, I can’t foresee lockdowns being the permenant status quo unless we wish for economic collapse

I’m aware a portion of my response is emotionally mediated as opposed to purely steeped in logic, but this repeated lockdown cycle has had a profoundly negative impact on my mental health/wellbeing, particularly last year wherein confounding variables led to a near disasterous outcome. I was far from the only individual who was affected this way

Plenty turned to drinking, excessive drug use etc to cope with the stress of it all… The uncertainty, the lack of progression in life with no end in sight… There are family members/friends of mine overseas who I’ll never see again because they’re dying and I can’t get out. There are multiple weddings I missed out on, I had to spend almost the entirety of last year almost in complete isolation going days at a time without muttering a word to anyone due to variables beyond my control.

I will never forgive our state and federal government’s for this botched vaccine rollout, plunging us into constant snap lockdowns for perhaps the next 6-8 months + to come. They’ll never get my vote…

I’m sure @Aragorn will enjoy reading this (assuming he hasn’t seen it by now)

1 Like

I’ve actually not read about this yet. Thanks for the heads up!

To me this really illustrates the problem with both pre-printed and meta-analyses. To be clear, I’m a fan of both… I think the access to early information is fantastic and outweighs the possible negatives. More information is usually good.

But the problem is that many, MANY people - journalists, general population, vested political interests, etc - can latch onto these studies and promote things that end up being crap. Many times in good faith, simply through lack of understanding and a lot of enthusiasm… but sometimes not.

It should also be noted that a once-in-a-century global pandemic is extraordinary circumstances by any measure, and it’s led to the fastest and most interconnected research track in history. The positives of this cooperation vastly outweigh the growing pains, or negatives of preprint studies in my opinion. However the problem is that the negatives are very prone to becoming entrenched before they’re debunked.

Preprint studies are that way for a reason. It’s very important that no matter how exciting we see something we remember that. Peer review has enough problems of its own, but it’s still the best we have so far for getting information. Even if many times it is as simple as a months long publishing delay (in my case, one of my papers was delayed 1.5 years) it still bears repeating.

Meta analysis can be extremely useful but needs to be done under strict rules. By the nature of it, one can find whatever they look for in many cases. Similarly to shining a flashlight on a dark room, you find what you shine the light on.

2 Likes

One of the most frustrating things about this pandemic is that everytime it feels like things are getting better, something else come along that destroys hope- it never seems to end

1 Like

Don’t tempt me. I still have a bottle of ivermectin at home. Got it when the vets suspected fur mites on my cat. This may go down like what I did with the fucking UV-C lamp…

Seriously:

No profit potential.

(This does not reflect my views on the efficacy of Ivermectin. I’m waiting for more evidence. That’s all.)

1 Like

To understand Indonesia’s politics, this was what the Health Minister said when Indonesia recorded 0 cases while every other fucking country in the region was picking up cases from Indonesian travellers:

Seriously, imagine a drug from the avermectin class really worked AND someone invented some kind of spot on treatment that has minimal systemic absorption, which would prevent adversely affecting major organs in the long run, while providing both internal and external protection against COVID that can be applied once a month.

How fucking hilarious yet cool would that be?

1 Like

And this is why those warnings and those cautions on preprint studies exist.

Lol, that argument always makes me laugh as you well know.

Billions of people would buy it. Hands down lol

1 Like

Ivermektin market price for pill is between 0.5 and 4 USD depends on which part of the world you buy it.
It has no patent.

Even if all people in the world buy 10 pills of ivermecting. This is approximately what 70 bils on average in profits for producers? Divided on how many pharmaceutical companies? Lets be generous and give another 70 to resellers.

You need to realize that patents is what makes money for pharmaceutical companies. Because if there are even 100 companies producing ivermecting that is on overage about 70 mil in profits per producer. Great profits.

Now with a vaccine. The average rate is over 20 USD? If you vaccinate 7 bil people once, this is 140 bil. Twice - 280 bil. Extra shots? Currently there is 1 big company in Phizer/Biontech that has the major market share. And 3 smaller players. They still have not sold the patents. But there is even greater potential for profits there.

So you want to tell me that a market with a potential of 280 bil for 2 shots and patents is smaller than a market with a cap of perhaps 140 bil and no patent?

As far as I am aware pharma patent last for 25 years. Lets guess that COVID develops as flu shots. There are about 385 000 babies born every single day. Or about 140 mil babies per year.
And potentially there will be 3,5 bil new people for the next 25 years. So there is a potential for covid vaccines being sold in the future via patents. And the rate will not be about 20 USD, but much higher after patents. I am not sure what the profit per vaccine is. But I am pretty sure it is much bigger than the 0.5 to 3.5 USD per pil.

I am not sure how correct my math is. Probably it is bullshit. But the profit potential for 4 companies via vaccines is much higher than the profit potential for 100 companies for ivermectin. So yes - there is no profit potential via ivermectin due to the number of potential shareholders of the market. While with the vaccine the major shareholders of the market are 4. And again - patents.

I just don’t have the patience for this any more.

Nobody said anything about the market for covid vaccines being smaller than the market for ivermectin. Nobody.

1 Like

The math certainly is bullshit. But no one would be able to come up with any math that’s not bullshit, which is why even I never did.

What is clear is that there is profit potential for Ivermectin. That is ALL we have been saying.

And no one is only talking about the Big Four, nor is anyone disputing that there is more profit potential and political leverage for the mRNA vaccines.

The Indonesian government has NO MONEY. That’s why they’ve had to rely on FREE Sinovac vaccines GIVEN to them by China. That’s just ONE 3rd World country with a population with over 200 million people.

These countries can’t afford the mRNA vaccines.

Now they have the licencing deal to produce their vaccines.

And this is the same State-owned company that took over Ivermectin production after consumer prices nearly doubled and they wanted to prevent a private producer from producing it, which is in the links I posted.

Do you understand how much $21 per bottle is in terms of PPP for Indonesians? That’s like $100-$200 for someone who works in the city. That would be MUCH more for someone who works in the rural areas.

They’d rather buy Ivermectin than get vaccinated.

And again, Ivermectin is a REPLENISHABLE product. This means that, if it proves to be successful in prevention of infection, each purchase of, say a bottle, is repeatable at a MONTHLY rate.

If not, it will probably be approved, at least in various parts of Asia, as a valid treatment, which would still SUBSTANTIALLY increase the demand for it.

The only question now is NOT EVEN ABOUT PROFIT. It’s WHO’S going to make the profit. The governments or private producers.

Even the Indonesian government isn’t selling Ivermectin for free.

1 Like