T Nation

COVID19: Perspective From A (Sort Of...) Expert-Adjacent Person

I skimmed the abstract when punnyguy linked it in the other thread, and added some very general thoughts, but I haven’t read all 17 pages of the study.

I think @ActivitiesGuy (if he’s not too swamped with work) would be better suited to giving thoughts on the statistics and general approach. It’s not really my area of expertise. I’ll read it and see if I can say anything useful.

I think he’s very smart lol. That sounds about exactly like what I would have guessed on a first impression.

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He’s incredibly bright, and also a hell’s angel sergeant. Interesting guy.


This sounds more promising than another year or year and a half. I wonder what it might be like if/when this explodes in Brazil and a lot of Africa. If this gets around fast enough, the world might not be as badly turned on its ear.

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I’m assuming This is what you were talking about a while ago in the other thread.

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The Leading Candidates

More than 100 different programs are seeking to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. Here are some of the biggest and most promising efforts.

Developer Ticker Vaccine Type Status Target Manufacturing Goal
Moderna MRNA mRNA Phase 1 ongoing; Phase 2 beginning soon Emergency authorization in the fall A billion doses per year
Pfizer and BioNTech PFE, BNTX mRNA Phase 1 ongoing Emergency authorization in October Hundreds of millions of doses in 2021
Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline SNY, GSK Adjuvanted recombinant subunit Phase 1 to start in second half of 2020 Approval in mid-2021 Up to 600 million doses by mid-2021
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Non-replicating viral vector Phase 1 to start by September Emergency authorization in early 2021 Hundreds of millions of doses by 2Q21, a billion by the end of 2021
Oxford University and AstraZeneca AZN Non-replicating viral vector Phase 1 ongoing No date set No goal set
Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO DNA plasmid Phase 1 ongoing No date set A million doses in 2020
Novavax NVAX Adjuvanted recombinant nanoparticle Phase 1 beginning in days Emergency authorization by the end of 2020 100 million doses in 2020, a billion doses in 2021

Source: Company reports

The Hares

Relevant quotes:

Probably won’t be disputed: “There’s a socioeconomic gradient where poorer populations are facing COVID infections at higher rates,” Bhattacharya said.

Probably will be, since the implication seems to be that the general lockdowns didn’t really work: “It’s very clear,” Bhattacharya said, “that the epidemic is still in the early stages throughout the country.”

This article came up, and deals with Sweden’s more lax approach to Covid-19. They planned to let herd immunity increase naturally, and some say it isn’t as good of an idea as the Swedes initially planned.

The subject has come up on this board of herd immunity, I thought to post this here.


@Aragorn She addresses the R rate:

She does not believe that the R rate is a useful tool in making decisions about government policies, as an R rate is “principally dependent on how many people are immune” and we don’t have that information.

I will have to look at it later. I skimmed the article but don’t want to search the video to find where she talks about the R rate.

My personal opinion is more in line with Ferguson’s, so although she’s certainly accomplished I don’t feel inclined to agree with her. Now, I am a biochemist rather than an epidemiologist so I classify as “adjacent” to the experts but not an expert. However, depending on what she means by “the R rate” I may or may not agree.

I do agree that governments have to weigh complex economic problems on the scale and contrary to how I think I am perceived in this forum I am not in favor of extremely long or draconian lockdown. However I AM in favor of having the tools needed to address the problems when we come out of lockdown fully to “normal” (whatever that is).

It seems that Dr. Tegnell, the new media darling of the right, messed up spectacularly… This is from one month ago:

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

I am just putting out here that there is a small sample size clinical trial starting, we can only be hopeful.


I googled it after I saw a Globe and Mail article that seemed similar. It is just that The Globe expected me to log in, and I don’t think the wider community on this board would want to do so.

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I always forget to update this thread. I’ve got a couple studies to put here tomorrow (if I don’t forget :roll_eyes:)

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I thought this was the best place to put this out there. this is a video from the UFC’s website, first episode of I don’t know how many, of the rigours they went through to put on UFC 251 with safety absolutely paramount. I thought to share:

@Aragorn Potential vaccine? @Legalsteel Article seems to think this is “better” than the Oxford effort, what does your smart friend think?

“vaccine from Oxford (ChAdOX)… provided no evidence of a reduction of viral replication in nasal tissue, raising questions as to whether these vaccines could affect virus transmission. In contrast, our study showed early prevention of viral replication in the upper and lower airways after a high-dose challenge (approximately 8×105 PFU) with SARS-CoV-2. The ability to limit viral replication in both the lower and the upper airways has important implications for vaccine-induced prevention of both SARS-CoV-2 disease and transmission.”


I shall ask him and get back to you. He is, understandably, quite busy though.


In the middle of the work-a-day, but I’ll check into this in the evening

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