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COVID19: Perspective From A (Sort Of...) Expert-Adjacent Person

My doc friend told me not to touch the food packaging for three days. When I’m getting deliveries of non-perishable foods I tell them to leave the items in the trunk of my car in the yard, and I pick it up after four days.

Maybe it’s an overkill, but we’ve devised this approach for my in-laws who are in the riskiest bracket so my family is also applying it.

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I’d say it’s probably a safe approach. Overkill? Hard to say, but if you’re not hard up for food it’s easy to do and safe for boxed goods.

Meat obviously can’t operate like that since low temps also preserve the virus

@ActivitiesGuy, what’s your take on the anecdotes popping up here and there that some people are testing positive again after recovering?

I’m a little frustrated with those because all the articles I’ve seen so far just say tested positive again (didn’t even specify if PCR or antibody test), which is technically supposedly different from being symptomatic/infected again. Come across any new info regarding that?

I live in S.D. I hadn’t heard of that place before it happened, but it sounds like a cluster f*ck. I believe they said they would be shutting down, but spouses of employees who know relatives of mine said they are not and will not shut down, rather just cleaning sections of the place at a time…because that’ll work out well until an infected person comes back to the area and sneezes or something.

The town it’s in is called Sioux Falls. It’s our biggest city - probably just 185k people or so. The mayor has been begging our governor for a shut down; she has so far refused saying she doesn’t want to limit freedoms and that people will make the right decisions. I get where she’s coming from but I think it’s ridiculous to expect people to “make the right decisions” haha…when do most people ever do that? I don’t think we can count on it.

My dad’s a mason. He was kinda laid off, but not officially. His boss got them a job out of town, so he and his coworkers all have to travel now, about 2 hours from where we live. None of them want to, since coincidentally many of them have wives with major health concerns, but if they refuse to go they won’t be paid and since they technically have work available, they won’t get unemployment.

Anyway, they’re working on a hospital in a small town, and a company from Sioux Falls is there. None of the S.F. guys want to be there, but they need to work and since our gov. won’t say no traveling, their bosses are making them travel and work. This is the issue - when you say “people will make the right decisions,” some of them literally can’t. Many of these guys want to stay home, but they have to go to work because no one’s forcing their employers to give them some time off.

Was told today that two guys, one from S.F. and one from my dad’s company were sent home due to coughs and fevers…they’ve all been rooming together in motels, and half of them are coming from one of the country’s biggest hotspots for the virus…should turn out well. My parents are separated but my dad usually comes by on the weekends to see my little siblings. Probably won’t be seeing him for a while now, just to be safe.

It could be overkill, but seems reasonable to me. I’m still out and about often dealing with kid emergencies. I’m not going to be around my parents for a long time. Just no sense in taking risks for no reason at this point. I miss seeing them, but we have FaceTime and everything else for family. It’s not going to be forever.

Has anyone (@Aragorn) seen this yet?


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Hey knowledgeable guys and gals, do you have any background information about this?

Apparently, there’s mounting speculation that lower infection and fatality rates in the former Communist Bloc countries in Europe are caused by the (still) mandatory BCG vaccine.

I somehow thought the first vaccine ever was the Jonas Salk Polio one.

I am not saying I am trumpeting it as a be all and end all, but there are some initial good data I heard about on Usatoday about Remdesivir. This has already been under development for several other viruses.

Asked my virologist friend.

‘Again, as with chloroquine, mostly anecdotal evidence to suggest it does anything‘

Me: could you venture a biological reason why it may work?

‘ It’s most likely low level cross reactivity or an immune boosting response to an adjuvant in the vaccine. My bet would be the latter’

Edit: Oxford microbio mate (you all wish you could be on this politics WhatsApp) said this in addition:

‘BCG is a miracle vaccine, has all kinds of beneficial effects outside of it’s main use, which ironically it isn’t particularly effective at.
So I don’t have too much trouble believing it‘

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Interesting. I think it’s confirming to an extent what we already “know.” Some people have/had the virus and it’s probably been scattering around places longer than we originally thought.

Really need some rapid testing to come through nationwide. Even if given the all clear sign I’m not going around big crowds until I have a good idea I’m not putting other people’s lives at risk, let alone my own. In a sense it would be easier if everyone who had it had some symptoms. When I know I have something and am shitting myself and throwing up I stay home.

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I skimmed the abstract when punnyguy linked it in the other thread, and added some very general thoughts, but I haven’t read all 17 pages of the study.

I think @ActivitiesGuy (if he’s not too swamped with work) would be better suited to giving thoughts on the statistics and general approach. It’s not really my area of expertise. I’ll read it and see if I can say anything useful.

I think he’s very smart lol. That sounds about exactly like what I would have guessed on a first impression.

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He’s incredibly bright, and also a hell’s angel sergeant. Interesting guy.

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This sounds more promising than another year or year and a half. I wonder what it might be like if/when this explodes in Brazil and a lot of Africa. If this gets around fast enough, the world might not be as badly turned on its ear.

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@Legalsteel

I’m assuming This is what you were talking about a while ago in the other thread.

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Yep!

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The Leading Candidates

More than 100 different programs are seeking to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. Here are some of the biggest and most promising efforts.

Developer Ticker Vaccine Type Status Target Manufacturing Goal
Moderna MRNA mRNA Phase 1 ongoing; Phase 2 beginning soon Emergency authorization in the fall A billion doses per year
Pfizer and BioNTech PFE, BNTX mRNA Phase 1 ongoing Emergency authorization in October Hundreds of millions of doses in 2021
Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline SNY, GSK Adjuvanted recombinant subunit Phase 1 to start in second half of 2020 Approval in mid-2021 Up to 600 million doses by mid-2021
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Non-replicating viral vector Phase 1 to start by September Emergency authorization in early 2021 Hundreds of millions of doses by 2Q21, a billion by the end of 2021
Oxford University and AstraZeneca AZN Non-replicating viral vector Phase 1 ongoing No date set No goal set
Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO DNA plasmid Phase 1 ongoing No date set A million doses in 2020
Novavax NVAX Adjuvanted recombinant nanoparticle Phase 1 beginning in days Emergency authorization by the end of 2020 100 million doses in 2020, a billion doses in 2021

Source: Company reports

The Hares

Relevant quotes:

Probably won’t be disputed: “There’s a socioeconomic gradient where poorer populations are facing COVID infections at higher rates,” Bhattacharya said.

Probably will be, since the implication seems to be that the general lockdowns didn’t really work: “It’s very clear,” Bhattacharya said, “that the epidemic is still in the early stages throughout the country.”

This article came up, and deals with Sweden’s more lax approach to Covid-19. They planned to let herd immunity increase naturally, and some say it isn’t as good of an idea as the Swedes initially planned.

The subject has come up on this board of herd immunity, I thought to post this here.

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