T Nation

Carwin vs Lesnar?


#1

whats your predictions on ufc 106?

i personally pick lesnar because he seems like his stronger and a much better wrestler then carwin is.


#2

On paper that's true, but we haven't seen them face the same opponents. I do think that Brock has the Mat strength advantage, but again it's tough to say for certain.

Carwin on the other hand seems to hit harder and more accurately (seems like the better striker of the two), but again we don't know for certain.

Who ever wins, I hope that it's an exciting fight and lives up to it's potential.


#3

You can say Cock is the better wrestler but who really knows just because Chestnar wrestled div 1 doesnt necessarily make him better than Shane on the Mat. I think a big factor could be the Jits skills between the two, I think Shane is better in this area and is certianly big enough to sweep Cock. On the feet the edge should go to Shane, but anyone can be caught in the HW division we saw that with Arlovski. I say Carwin KO round 1 or round 2 TKO.


#4

True. But, Brock was known for manhandling opponents on the mat in college. I don't think that Shane had the same reputation (could be wrong though). They've both got similar gym numbers though.

The JJ skills might well be a factor, but I doubt that it's going to come into play much in terms of takedowns (unless maybe it's a guillotine or anaconda) though as they don't really teach you anything in JJ from a takedown perspective that isn't already covered in folkstyle wrestling (and in many cases done better, tbh). If anything it'll come into play in terms of ending the fight if Carwin ends up on top or gets Brock's back.


#5

I think it'll be great, and if Brock wins... I'll stop talking shit on his fighting abilities.


#6

While Lesnar has faced better competition, he's fought fewer fights and been given the benefit of some shaky refereeing [Couture anyone?] and looked kinda' spastic overall. The only time he's looked halfway decent to me was Mir 2, and I thought he benefitted more from Mirs shitty gameplan [or lack thereof] than talent or skill.

Carwin's won 11 fights, all by knockout or submission, and none past the first round. I'd honestly never heard of the guy until the Gonzaga fight but was blown away by his power. I mean he got his nose broken, got taken down, stood up with a 250+lb man hanging on him and delivered a ko with a short straight right with no hip drive.

The dude's an animal, and as long as he's not so nervous he rushes his punches like he did initially against Wellisch [sp?] he'll win. People seem to forget that the few brief times we've seen Lesnar get tagged in the face he was clearly flustered, and he hasn't been hit flush or by anyone with nearly Carwins power.

Everyone here [myself included] is positive Lesnar's gonna try to take this to the ground immediately, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hasn't started reading his own press clippings and decides to try and stand with Carwin. No matter what Lesnar wants to do in this fight, my money's on Carwin cleaning his clock.


#7

Those are all legitimate points. And I agree that if Brock tries to stand and trade with Carwin it could be a very quick fight (and bad one for Lesnar).

The interesting thing will be to see how Carwin is able to deal with Brock's wrestling. If he can either stuff Brock's takedown attempts, or even take Brock down, then it'll just be a matter of time until he KO's or TKO's Brock. If he can't stop Brock's takedowns though, I think he could be in for a rough night.


#8

I went to a wrestling camp at Western State, the college where Carwin wrestled, in Gunnison, CO and saw his picture. He did not look nearly as strong or conditioned as he is now. He gained a lost of size(muscle wise) while Lesnar hasn't gotten too much bigger. I would have to say that Carwin probably has increased his wrestling ability and strength from his college days a lot more than Lesnar has, if he has.


#9

but you guys forget that brock lesnar also has outstanding K.O power he just needs to work on his stand up a little more.


#10

Cool, thanks for the info. :slight_smile:


#11

If he does, so far he hasn't showcased it too well. Yeah, he beat Mir's face into oblivion with arm punches, which is very impressive in and of itself. But that's on the ground where the opponent's head can't really move to dissipate the force of the punches. He knocked Randy down with a punch to the temple/below the ear (tough to tell exactly where the punch landed due to the camera angle), but he didn't knock him out.

The guy has big hands and is an extremely explosive and strong dude, no one is arguing that. So, yeah, if he keeps training with good coaches he may develop into a KO threat. But so far, Carwin is the hands down winner when it comes to KO power.

For illustrative purposes, here's Brock's straight right (notice how it has a lot of momentum behind it, sending Herring tumbling backwards across the mat, but not all that much impact, as he doesn't seem too hurt by the punch):

Here is Carwin's straight right (has a ton of impact, resulting in the opponent dropping to the mat like a sack of potatoes):

Same thing here, lest one might think that the above was a lucky punch:

Some guys are just gifted KO artists (which Carwin seems to be), others can be taught, and yet others never seem to "get it". We'll have to wait and see where Brock falls on the spectrum.


#12

Brock hasn't KO'd anyone yet how is that outstanding?


#13

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/mutual-friend-waterman-handicaps-carwin-vs-lesnar-19503


#14

I believe this will be the real test of Brock's stand up abilities. I think Carwin matches up very well with Brock in all aspects, with perhaps Brock having the takedown advantage and Carwin definitely having the punching advantage. Suffice it to say neither has fought an opponent who was as physically large and powerful as themselves.

That being said, I believe Brock will go in with the gameplan of going for the takedown, and hoping to repeat the Mir 2 fight (GNP). Carwin, conversely, will most likely attempt to keep the fight standing, looking to capitalize on his superior striking. Even if Brock gets the takedown, I find it hard to believe he will be able to manhandle Carwin as he did his previous opponents.

I can honestly say I believe this will go to the scorecards, showing us all the "real" Lesnar and Carwin.


#15

You can't forget what doesn't exist.


#16

Just to play devils advocate, how has Lesnar benefited from shaky refereeing?

Also, Lesnar has been in the cage for more minutes with better competition.

I have to comment on this as well. This is about as old as the other favorite disses by the Lesnar haters. He was clearly fluster when he got hit in face? What does that even mean? Did he get knocked on his ass and end up on the ground with Gonzaga? Oh wait that was Carwin.

[/quote]
What press clippings? Are there press clippings praising Lesnar's striking that I haven't seen?


#17

here's one for the Lesnar haters.

http://www.mmaweekly.com/absolutenm/templates/dailynews.asp?articleid=9516&zoneid=13


#18

Well, actually neither has gotten knocked on their ass by a punch (at least in the UFC, and I've never seen any video footage of Carwin getting dropped in his earlier pre-UFC fights). Both have gotten rocked/stumbled by punches, the only difference is that Gonzaga capitalized on Carwin being rocked with a single leg that he used to take him down, while neither Randy nor Mir was able to capitalize on doing so to Brock.

Also, Carwin had his nose broken by that punch from Gonzaga (for the first time ever in his career), Lesnar didn't have his nose broken in either instance.

Valid points otherwise though.


#19

touche

Advantage Brock - stronger nose

looks like I didn't do a very good job of making my point on that one. I was not trying to discredit Carwin. I was just trying demonstrate how silly the "doesn't like to hit" argument is. He has been hit several times to little effect.

If Carwin hits anyone on the button its not going to matter if they enjoy the experience or not, they're going down.


#20

Did you really just say Lesnar has a stronger nose? I see how home state favoritism plays there, but get the fuck outta here with that shit! What des that even mean? The guy's never really been tagged, and the few glancing blows that have "connected" made him all jumbled. Once again, Carwin got his nose broken, and as Sento pointed out swept to the ground and then stood up with a 250+lb bag of meat draped all over him and crushed the dude with an arm punch. AN ARM PUNCH. Yeah Lesnar's spent more total time in the ring against "superior" opponents, but that doesn't tell me much other than with the refs help he can beat a middle aged guy who hasn't fought in a year and a half and can look decent against a half-asser. Carwin's not middle-aged and won't half ass it. Lesnar's a big, strong athletic dude who can obviously bring it, but his weaknesses appear to be Carwins strengths, and his strengths are also Carwins strengths. I'd be truly surprised if he doesn't get ktfo.