T Nation

Can Obama Be Beaten?


Incumbents are pretty hard to beat. But then, the Wall Street Journal has this:

"The nation's high joblessness, already a problem for President Barack Obama as he seeks re-election next year, is shaping up to be a particular burden in a handful of key swing states where the unemployment rate is above the national average.

In four states that may prove key to the Obama re-election strategyâ??Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Michiganâ??the jobless picture is bleak. In three of the four, the rate tops 10%.

Mr. Obama visits two of these states, Florida and North Carolina, next week, and will confront a gloomy picture made worse by the recent run of poor economic data ..."

I think he'll certainly win Michigan and Nevada.



I think you could beat Obama , if you distract Secret Service , long enough :slight_smile:


Watch your mouth pittbulll



Yes, he can be beaten.

And nobody understands that more that he and his campaign. Contrary to "popular" belief, they are not sitting around thinking that his re-election is almost automatic.

It's not.



Not by Romney






Aw come on now Mufasa. I've never been a fan of Romney's. BTW, they just tore down his boyhood home here in Detroit. http://www.zillow.com/blog/2010-05-17/mitt-romneys-old-boyhood-home-in-detroit-to-be-razed/



I NEVER would have guessed that, T!



It's the economy stupid.


Yes it is.

And it can sink an incumbant's chances for re-election faster than you can say George Herbert Walker Bush.



I heard that Clinton actually got the nomination because most Dems had actually given up to Bush, that he was unbeatable. And Clinton is one heck of a speaker.


Can it rain on a Monday?


Even if Obama isn't a good president, he's a great candidate. He has great rhetoric and so far it doesn't look like he has very strong opposition. Also, I'm sure the Bin Laden thing will help. Granted, this was a work in progress that's been going on for a couple decades or so, but his death was handled very well and a lot people don't understand how long the US has been after Bin Laden. If the republicans can find a half-way strong candidate, than I think the republicans will win. But I don't see that happening.


I'm not sure how you mean this, but on
12-04-2009, 01:26 PM I said:


I agree. Many will see the Bin Laden kill as a success where Bush and by extension the GOP failed even. It doesn't matter that Bonzo the performing chimp could have been in the whitehouse and Bin Laden would still be dead. It happened on Obama's watch. Then again, Bush v.1.0 had an approval rating in the low 80's after Desert Storm 9 months before the "92" election and lost to bamboozlin Billy. Who knows anymore. Still early. I should know by now that just about every October has it's surprises.


First, I want to say that I am making a pledge to be polite and respectful to everyone.
Second, I apologize for any offense given anyone in the past.

So...here is Tim Geithner : "It will come again. There will be another storm. But it's not going to come for a while."

That was surely forthright for a sitting Treasury Secretary. He was not specific, but to say that another crisis will come was unique. He added this: "It's not going to be possible for people to capture risk with perfect foresight and knowledge."

That was amazingly forthright. It points to the reality of the naive faith of regulators that they can devise formulas that will keep the system from being hit by some unexpected mini-crisis that will trigger a wider systemic breakdown. He acknowledged that risk analysis, based on statistics, cannot deal with uncertainty: events outside the law of large numbers that serves as the basis of statistics. Ludwig von Mises discussed this in 1949, and Frank H. Knight wrote a book on this in 1921: Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Nassim Taleb has called this a black swan event. Whatever we call it, such an event torpedoes the best-laid plans of government regulators as well as statisticians advising leveraged banks."


If that 'storm' happens between now and Nov 2012, what effect will that have? Will people 'hunker down' behind Obama, or will they want to toss him out on his ear?


Good question, HH.

I think that it depends on a) the GOP's "answers" to the crisis (merely criticising the President won't work AND b) the response by the President and his Cabinet to the crisis.

However; like Tiribulus eluded to; this can be a "fickle" electorate, so who knows...

One last point, though. One can get a VERY skewed view of public sentiment from "PWI".



Rick Perry from Texas, he is the only guy I see who might be able to beat him.

Texas is the only state that has added jobs, some of the lowest taxes and regulations, he offers a good argument.

But I think people are still sore about the last guy who ran for president from Texas and won.


If people give a shit about public education, the democrats are going to have a field day with that one. But Perry has done very well garnering support from the far right wing conservative base.