Incumbents are pretty hard to beat. But then, the Wall Street Journal has this:
"The nation's high joblessness, already a problem for President Barack Obama as he seeks re-election next year, is shaping up to be a particular burden in a handful of key swing states where the unemployment rate is above the national average.
In four states that may prove key to the Obama re-election strategyâ??Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Michiganâ??the jobless picture is bleak. In three of the four, the rate tops 10%.
Mr. Obama visits two of these states, Florida and North Carolina, next week, and will confront a gloomy picture made worse by the recent run of poor economic data ..."
I think he'll certainly win Michigan and Nevada.