First, I want to say that I am making a pledge to be polite and respectful to everyone.
Second, I apologize for any offense given anyone in the past.
So...here is Tim Geithner : "It will come again. There will be another storm. But it's not going to come for a while."
That was surely forthright for a sitting Treasury Secretary. He was not specific, but to say that another crisis will come was unique. He added this: "It's not going to be possible for people to capture risk with perfect foresight and knowledge."
That was amazingly forthright. It points to the reality of the naive faith of regulators that they can devise formulas that will keep the system from being hit by some unexpected mini-crisis that will trigger a wider systemic breakdown. He acknowledged that risk analysis, based on statistics, cannot deal with uncertainty: events outside the law of large numbers that serves as the basis of statistics. Ludwig von Mises discussed this in 1949, and Frank H. Knight wrote a book on this in 1921: Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Nassim Taleb has called this a black swan event. Whatever we call it, such an event torpedoes the best-laid plans of government regulators as well as statisticians advising leveraged banks."
If that 'storm' happens between now and Nov 2012, what effect will that have? Will people 'hunker down' behind Obama, or will they want to toss him out on his ear?