T Nation

Biden 2021 - A Mediocre Middle Ground

Loppar is buying into the graph lie.

3 Likes

I’m being paid by the Big Math and the handkerchief lobby.

4 Likes

-A bunch of graphs

-I’m not aware of any similar vaccine graphs yet.

I know, I read it on facebook.

1 Like

I have read the name of the second graph. It says excess mortality rate. Which translates to unusual deaths or spike of deaths. It does not say mortality rate nor compares the mortality rates.

Here is a real crude mortality rate of Bulgaria. No big changes with Covid

Thank you for your fake news.

Man, I am very disapointed with the lack of arguments and excess rate of people full of propaganda.

This graph is only covering covid-19 deaths

Though much of Italy has gone back into lockdown now … what a fucking joke…

No, no. Please. He tried to put a fake story here. That due to Covid our mortality rates have spiked and we are the worst in the world by putting misleading graphs. I showed him our date rates from 1950 to 2020 and that showed we always had high mortality rates and Covid has nothing to do with it. There is the usual 1.2% increase in mortality rate from 2019 to 2020.

This has been argued in our elections many times. And has been proven to be a fake narrative. In fact Bulgaria is the perfect case study for why Covid is not that dangerous and vaccination is pretty much useless if we observe mortality rates only. But not the perfect case for hospitalization from Covid, because our medical system is fucked up and we have our death rate proving that.

By the way dont quote me on that, because I am not able to find source, but I am sure I ve heard we had more flu deaths in 2019 than Covid deaths on 2020. This is how fucked up we are.

All cause mortality rates were way higher in 1950

I’d look at a graph covering the past five to ten years and see if there is an upward tick

I can’t see this being true seeing Australia has seen 2x the amount of deaths relative to a normal flu season for us… Australia…

No they did not.

No, it’s covering excess deaths from all causes which for some peculiar reason always align with Covid waves.

You do not know how to read graphs, do you? Nor elementary school algebra?

Covid killed almost 28k or 0,4% of all Bulgarians and is still going strong, the second highest death rate in the world. Swine flu killed 12 in Bulgaria.

Not for us. We had lower mortality rates in 1950. And they have gradually increased every year by an average of 1.2 %. The numbers show the same slow and steady increase. I blame it on communism and the bad medical system they put in place. But that is for another topic.

The graph for the past 10-20 years is covered in my link. The same steady increase. We had nothing changing with Covid.

Well as I said dont quote me on that. We had a pretty bad flu season in 2019 and considering how bad our medical system is, I would not be surprised. I remember being sick in 2019 from the flu and I was 4 days in a delirium and then about a week of recovering. It was a nasty flu.

Man would you stop with the fake news, please. We ALWAYS HAD the top 10 worst death rate in the world. I fucking showed you the real death rate. It as 15 per 1000 in 2017,2018, was 15 per 1000 in 2019 and 15 per 1000 in 2020. I am not speaking a bout the swine flu, I am speaking about the flu season in 2019. Please stop with the fake narratives. Bulgaria doesnt have Covid issues, Bulgaria has mortality rate issues and had them for 70 years now. You are not discovering the hot water.

Learn definitions as well. Crude mortality rate is the real mortality rate. Excess mortality rate is something else. Did you skip English classes in school?

Yes, and you’re demonstrating once again that you do not understand the term “excess death rate” - the difference between actual death rate and the expected one based on an average of last five years - taking into account depopulation and aging.

Why are you planning to airlift Covid patients to other countries then?

I really love how you’re able to clearly articulate your points. You should work form Mirriam-Webster and help them write new word definitions.

It pretty much described the situation in Bulgaria. And also explains what are the limitations in measuring the excess mortality rates in Bulgaria. Have fun reading. I will note to read the case for Vidin, where the excess rate is pretty low, because of an already high mortality rate.

Did…did you actually read the paper? I’m asking because it confirms all of my points and it’s worth noting that in the meantime the situation became more than two times worse.

Eastern Europe emerges as the hardest hit region by the pandemic in Europe in 2020. With a record EMR at ∼ 0.25% and a strikingly large and mostly unique to it mortality rate in the working age demographics, Bulgaria emerges as one of the most affected countries in Eastern Europe. The high excess mortality in Bulgaria correlates with insufficient intensity of testing and with delayed imposition of “lockdown” measures. We also find major geographic and demographic disparities within the country, with considerably lower mortality observed in major cities relative to more remote areas (likely due to disparities in the availability of medical resources). Analysis of the course of the epidemic revealed that individual mobility measures were predictive of the eventual decline in cases and deaths.

Large excess mortality and high numbers of potential years of life lost are observed as a result of the COVID pandemic in Bulgaria, as well as in several other countries in Eastern Europe. Significant delays in the imposition of stringent mobility-reducing measures combined with a lack of medical resources likely caused a substantial loss of life, including in the working age population.

In total, we estimate that 17,352 lives have been lost in Bulgaria in 2020 in excess of the baseline from previous years (Figure 1A). This amounts to an EMR of 2,496 DPM, or ∼ 0.25%, for the year and ranks the country as the most highly affected within the EU (Figure 1A; Supplementary Table 1; according to P-scores Spain, Poland and Belgium rank higher). COVID mortality is in most countries higher in males than in females 32, and this is also what is observed in Bulgaria and most other EU countries (Figure 1B-C; Supplementary Tables 2-3). For females, an EMR of 2,178 DPM is observed (P-score of 18.79), compared to an EMR of 3,198 DPM for males (P-score of 23.99) across all ages.

1 Like

Yes I did.

Limitation of Excess mortality and P-scores

Our mean mortality calculations do not account for population changes in the 2015-2019 period. For example, Bulgaria has one of the highest negative growth rates in the world. Between 2015 and 2020 Bulgaria’s population has decreased by around 250,000 or approximately 6.5% per year 28. The country also has a negative net migration and has seen approximately 25,000 people leave its borders in the last five years 29

The screen shot is the death rate graph in Bulgaria from 2000 to 2021. I do not see anything excess here.

Bulgaria Death Rate 1950-2021

Yes.

And that’s why statistical measures that use the population number as a divisor are actually worse if emigration is not taken into account.

In other words, if the official Covid death toll is 28k (undercounted, lower than excess deaths) is divided by the number of people, the population fatality rate is higher if those that emigrated are not substracted beforehand. The less people in Bulgaria there is, the worse the Covid epidemic is.

Arguably, Worldometers uses the 2021 estimate for calculation of deaths/per million which take into account official emigration.

And here’s another conundrum for you - people who emigrate tend to be of working age or younger, and therefore do not significantly affect absolute mortality of the remaining population as it increases over time - due to a smaller divisor and an aging population.

In other words, all the evidence you’ve listed is diametrically opposed to your claims.

In other words no matter how you chery pick excess rate, the mortality rate in Bulgaria remains the same. Which means basically that measurement such as excess mortaly rates are really cherry picking. Where is the excess mortality rate, when the mortality rate has remained the same over the past years and the increasebis steadily the same?

To get back to basics. The covid mortality rate in Bulgaria is 0.4 instead of 0.1. Lets vaccinate everyone with tripple doses, because problems such as lack of medical care, workforce and mobility as shown on the research are insignificant health care problems. That will solve Covid.

Now we have gone way out of topic.
Can we speak about Biden and his gas prise solution.

Can we get back to making fun of Biden?

2 Likes

What figures are you quoting? I saw something the other day that showed deaths in recent years from flu vs Covid, in Australia.
Flu deaths fluctuated from nearly 2000/year up to many thousands. I can’t remember off hand but it was no more than 9000/year.
2019 was seen as a bad flu season, and had 4100 deaths from flu. 2020 there were only 37 deaths from flu??? 900 deaths from Covid in the same year.
If these figures are accurate it looks like we had a massive government overreaction to the threat.
We have an average of 3000 deaths per year from suicide. It would be interesting to see if these figures have also gone up through Covid. My guess is it has…

1 Like