T Nation

Baltic Dry Index


Anyone follow it? It's considered a MAJOR tool for predicting the near future economic climate. It has been plunging as of late, predicting at minimum a double dip recession. Since it simply measures worldwide shipping and has no speculation elements to it, it is unaffected by any gambling...a true simple measure.


"There's far more than meets the eye when it comes to dry bulk shipping and commodities. For example, the Baltic Dry Index has been absolutely hammered over the last month and a half, dropping from the 4,000 range to now under 1,800...."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/check-out-this-market-action-baltic-dry-annhilated-but-dry-bulk-shippers-rebounding-nicely-2010-7#ixzz0thnAAolS

This is the beginning of the Great Crash.



BDI is tethered to the USDX


Yup, the dollar doesn't look good. Thanks for the link.


â??The economic data just keeps coming in softer,â?? said James Combias, New York-based head of Treasury trading at Mizuho Financial Group Inc., one of the 18 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. â??The bond market is pricing in the real possibility of slower growth.â??

The benchmark 10-year note yield fell 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 2.92 percent yesterday in New York, from 3.06 percent on July 9, according to BGCantor Market Data. It touched 2.88 percent on July 1, the lowest level since April 2009. The price of the 3.5 percent security due in May 2020 rose 1 5/32, or $11.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 104 29/32.

The two-year note yield dropped for the seventh straight week, falling 4 basis points to 0.59 percent and touching its lowest level ever, 0.5765 percent.

The collapse is very close. Hope y'all been savin' yer money!


Not really. More of a short term correlation.

Look for the dollar to take off again from near levels.

Look for Gold and Silver to continue declining, with sharp upward spikes along the way.

Look for the markets to sell off strongly in the coming months.

I just loaded up again on SDS.

Pay off debt.

Save, Save, Save.


Perhaps tethered was too strong a word, but BDI is measured in USD therefore if BDI drops concurrently with the USD then the change in the BDI points rating is exaggerated. That aside BDI is still an excellent economic indicator: contraction ahoy!




"The BDI most recently topped out in May. As of yesterday (Thursday), it has already dropped 35 days in a row.

That's significant.

This string of "down days" is the longest in at least nine years, The Economist reported this week. During the crash of 2008, the index never fell 35 days in a row.

Today, the BDI is again flashing serious warning signs that not everything is as it appears. It may be warning us about the start of a "double-dip" recession, or it may be telling us that something even worse is at hand."


JEATON is correct wrt shorting this market. A 40% tumble in the S & P seems pretty likely. Only stocks with a yield > 5% and tons of ready cash to cover the dividend should be held.


I would like to make a change.

Pay off debt.

Buy precious metals (insurance) with your cash savings after you have a fully funded emergency fund.


Save. In a crises, people want cash. Debtors owe dollars, and creditors are owed dollars. So have them.

Buy metals and real estate at the bottom.
In 2008, gold rolled over with the economy. It fell from 1033 to 681, and silver plunged from 21.40 to 8.39.

Gold at 400 may be the lowest you will see.

Metals are only a hedge against inflation. Which will come after this period of upcoming deflation.


I'm beginning to think this way myself. If gold gets to $400, I be shocked but buying.