An Unpoliced World

Interestingly, one of the stabilizing things in many markets these days is the social programs.

When all goes to hell, and people would otherwise have no money to spend, there are those faithful government programs that keep money flowing throughout the economy.

What? Paradox?

Surprisingly, since the dark ages, trading agreements have become more… shall we say “voluntary” then they once were.

Finally, investors are not as stupid as some of the dumbasses posting in this forum, as they generally investigate the risks involved in doing business in less established nations.

Those with real money, or those trusted to manage it, generally don’t get into many situations that are make or break in one big crap shoot… though nobody really wants to suffer losses, there are many ways to share risk or hedge a bet.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling, and I see panic on the streets of London!

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

What DO you think we’ve been doing or attempting to do, since 1945? How does observing the ebb and flow of power across the world prevent me from being a conservative?

[/quote]

Have you seen the movie “Fog of War” 14 lessons from the life of Robert MacNamarra?
It’s a great movie. He talks quite a bit about how America should fight its wars.
What do you think we should do with Iran?

[quote]vroom wrote:

Those with real money, or those trusted to manage it, generally don’t get into many situations that are make or break in one big crap shoot… though nobody really wants to suffer losses, there are many ways to share risk or hedge a bet.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling, and I see panic on the streets of London![/quote]

Do you think Hugo Chavez would JUST LOVE to get Latin American countries to default on their debts? Afterall, its been done many times in the past. What better way to stick it to those evil Yankees who actually wanted their loans back? Those filthy Americanoes!!!

What prevents him and his ilk from doing just exactly that? Fear that no one would loan in the future? He hates capitalism and freedom, and would rather HE be the lender in the region (what with all his oil money).

Like most, you assume current conditions will continue. With the USA no longer policing the world, you assume the world will be a happy and carefree place. Mr. Chavez, Mr. Amanijhad, Mullar Omar, and other such beasts might have a different idea.

[quote]Skystud wrote:
Good point. When do you think our markets will tank? I’m thinking when the asians no longer want to buy our bonds.
[/quote]

As long as 70% of global financial transactions occur in US dollars we are safe.

The rest of the world is inclined to run as big a surplus with the US as they can tolerate which means cheap goods and services for the US consumer.

Foreign countries must keep their currency strong in relation to the dollar so that their energy and raw material costs do not sky rocket.

If Iran, Russia, etc. start to sell their oil in Euros things will change.

Foreign countries would then be more inclined to run a surplus with European countries and would be less inclined to buy our debt. Buying our debt allows foreign countries to reap some reward for trading with the US.

[quote]endgamer711 wrote:

“Being the cop” is a very flattering way of putting it. Perhaps more accurate to say we have been advancing and defending our own national interests.

This last ranges on a spectrum, and can mean anything from “helping to stabilize an important conflict close to Europe” (Kosovo) to “put up your hands and give me all your oil contracts” (Iraq).

In neither extreme do we seem to succeed particularly well unilaterally, i.e. acting cop-like. Nor does it seem we take much interest in crimes against humanity in a great many parts of the world (e.g. Africa, Indonesia). We make a very curious world policeman.

On the other hand, where important natural resources are concerned, intervention may of course be a matter of national survival, and the national interest is paramount. This century bids fair to be dominated by wars fought over control of the exploitation of natural resources.

To visualize ourselves as cops is too pretty by half. In reality, and for good reason, we’re more like the other side of that dynamic: we’re the mob. Like the Romans, we’re better organized and armed than the average criminal.

I’m not saying we can or should do much differently than we do now. The planet is going down the tubes under the weight of so much excess humanity (e.g. real good news this week for tuna lovers: the oceans are dying). So it’s desperate times alright; I just wish we’d look ourselves square in the face and see ourselves for what we are: human beings, trying to survive. I think the stories we tell ourselves about ourselves just get in the way of finding better solutions than the sort we’ve lately fastened on.

The make-believe we do about who we are renders the current, warlike and regrettable solutions … too comfortable.

Finally, when it comes to reducing the level of terrorism in the world, I think we now clearly see that armies don’t hack it; it takes a world of cops, not a cop of the world. Fighting terrorism is basically police work, and you want all the cops in the world on your side.

So in the end, I think this idea of the world needing “a” cop and that that cop is us is pretty hokey.

As for the idea that new leadership in Congress would stand in the way of national survival, well pish. Yes, yes, I know. Can it, the election is over. Wait at least until she’s sworn in. We can all have a nice holiday season.

Which I wish you all![/quote]

That’s some good shit right there. +1

(HH you are still such a retard, I can’t wait until Pelosi makes GWB her bitch!! Looks like it’s already started, bye bye Rummy!)

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Well, it started Tuesday. More American people have decided that being the global cop was a bad investment. Let the withdrawals begin…[/quote]

What the public decided against was Republican corruption, incompetence, big spending, sex scandals, bad legislation, no progress in Iraq, the GOP’s party-before-nation attitude, general lack of accomplishment despite controlling Congress, and the overall nationwide drift too far to the Right.

Even more enjoyable than the solid nationwide pounding the Right took on Tuesday, is that hardly anyone on the Right can understand what it means or why it happened.

I look forward to the future.

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
Skystud wrote:
Good point. When do you think our markets will tank? I’m thinking when the asians no longer want to buy our bonds.

As long as 70% of global financial transactions occur in US dollars we are safe.

The rest of the world is inclined to run as big a surplus with the US as they can tolerate which means cheap goods and services for the US consumer.

Foreign countries must keep their currency strong in relation to the dollar so that their energy and raw material costs do not sky rocket.

If Iran, Russia, etc. start to sell their oil in Euros things will change.

Foreign countries would then be more inclined to run a surplus with European countries and would be less inclined to buy our debt. Buying our debt allows foreign countries to reap some reward for trading with the US.

[/quote]

Is there a ‘critical mass’, when the rest of the world won’t want our IOUs? There must be a saturation point somewhere. Watch for that day.

[quote]Brad61 wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Well, it started Tuesday. More American people have decided that being the global cop was a bad investment. Let the withdrawals begin…

What the public decided against was Republican corruption, incompetence, big spending, sex scandals, bad legislation, no progress in Iraq, the GOP’s party-before-nation attitude, general lack of accomplishment despite controlling Congress, and the overall nationwide drift too far to the Right.

Even more enjoyable than the solid nationwide pounding the Right took on Tuesday, is that hardly anyone on the Right can understand what it means or why it happened.

I look forward to the future.
[/quote]

Spending will rise even more (12 years of pent-up ideas), taxes will rise, stocks will begin to fall. Being perceived as weak on defense, international investments from all over will fall, leading to suffering in the 3rd world (its actually already started), spreading slowly upward. Unemployment will rise as demand falls and we’ll have more and more difficulty financing our lifestyles with debt. Eventually, the market will crash, the government will print money wildly to cover all the debts and obligations. Hyperinflation, followed by a militaristic/fascist dictatorship results. A nationalistic party will take the place of the corrupt and inefficient two now. China will be the new hegemon, in cooperation with the massive US military.

Yep, there’s your bright future.

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Spending will rise even more (12 years of pent-up ideas), taxes will rise, stocks will begin to fall.[/quote]

Your taxes will probably rise, to pay for Bush’s ridiculous spending spree and tax-cuts. Spending money you, your children and grand children don’t have can’t go on forever.

On the Canadian side, Harper has cut the national sales tax by 1% this year and plans to cut it another 1% next year. He’s giving us more generous family allocations per kids and wants to reduce our income tax too. Of course, the Canadian federal govt. has been amassing surpluses for years now.

Stocks will fall? Probably. And then they’ll rise again.

Really? With a defense budget larger than the rest of the world put together you really think you’ll be perceived as weak on defense? Just because that idiot Rumsfeld mismanaged the greatest fighting force in the history of the planet into a draw fighting armed civilians in sandals, doesn’t make you “weak on defense.”

Stop electing corporate shills who only look after their own self-interest to the White House, and you might not get embarrassed so badly on the world stage.

You managed to defeat the Soviet Union in the cold war without eliminating all your civil liberties or even fighting a direct war with them. Don’t tell me you can’t take on religious nutcases with AK-47s.

But I digress.

Nice of you to notice, since it’s been going on for, like, forever? Even when the French and British Empires were warring over the seas with each other, it wasn’t so hot for most of the modern third world. As far as predictions go, it’s pretty much moot.

I’ll give you this one. We live in with way to much debt and too little savings. While there might be some difficult years ahead, there’s a difference between a slowed economy, a few recessions and your vision of the apocalypse.

This is the above-mentioned apocalypse I was referring too.

Although it does get you your utopian vision of how life should be, no?

If it comes to that, I’ll join the fascist army and seek you out, just so I can stomp your asthmatic non-recruitable chickenhawk face with my spit-shined boot. :slight_smile:

Will it be efficient and non-corrupt? You do realize that it would take a major revolution to put that in place? I’m not saying it’s completely impossible (I’m not making the mistakes some 1930s German did) but I’d rate it extremely unlikely.

Once under Chinese command, do you expect them to be able to fight their way out of a wet paper bag? Or will they, again, be thwarted by patient civilians with primitive weapons and crap cars?

Wanna bet?

[quote]pookie wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Spending will rise even more (12 years of pent-up ideas), taxes will rise, stocks will begin to fall.

Your taxes will probably rise, to pay for Bush’s ridiculous spending spree and tax-cuts. Spending money you, your children and grand children don’t have can’t go on forever.

On the Canadian side, Harper has cut the national sales tax by 1% this year and plans to cut it another 1% next year. He’s giving us more generous family allocations per kids and wants to reduce our income tax too. Of course, the Canadian federal govt. has been amassing surpluses for years now.

Stocks will fall? Probably. And then they’ll rise again.

Being perceived as weak on defense,

Really? With a defense budget larger than the rest of the world put together you really think you’ll be perceived as weak on defense? Just because that idiot Rumsfeld mismanaged the greatest fighting force in the history of the planet into a draw fighting armed civilians in sandals, doesn’t make you “weak on defense.”

Stop electing corporate shills who only look after their own self-interest to the White House, and you might not get embarrassed so badly on the world stage.

You managed to defeat the Soviet Union in the cold war without eliminating all your civil liberties or even fighting a direct war with them. Don’t tell me you can’t take on religious nutcases with AK-47s.

But I digress.

international investments from all over will fall, leading to suffering in the 3rd world (its actually already started),

Nice of you to notice, since it’s been going on for, like, forever? Even when the French and British Empires were warring over the seas with each other, it wasn’t so hot for most of the modern third world. As far as predictions go, it’s pretty much moot.

spreading slowly upward. Unemployment will rise as demand falls and we’ll have more and more difficulty financing our lifestyles with debt.

I’ll give you this one. We live in with way to much debt and too little savings. While there might be some difficult years ahead, there’s a difference between a slowed economy, a few recessions and your vision of the apocalypse.

Eventually, the market will crash, the government will print money wildly to cover all the debts and obligations. Hyperinflation, followed by a militaristic/fascist dictatorship results.

This is the above-mentioned apocalypse I was referring too.

Although it does get you your utopian vision of how life should be, no?

If it comes to that, I’ll join the fascist army and seek you out, just so I can stomp your asthmatic non-recruitable chickenhawk face with my spit-shined boot. :slight_smile:

A nationalistic party will take the place of the corrupt and inefficient two now.

Will it be efficient and non-corrupt? You do realize that it would take a major revolution to put that in place? I’m not saying it’s completely impossible (I’m not making the mistakes some 1930s German did) but I’d rate it extremely unlikely.

China will be the new hegemon, in cooperation with the massive US military.

Once under Chinese command, do you expect them to be able to fight their way out of a wet paper bag? Or will they, again, be thwarted by patient civilians with primitive weapons and crap cars?

Yep, there’s your bright future.

Wanna bet?
[/quote]

Our national debt grows at about $12,000 per second. As you say, that can’t continue to compound forever. Either the currency becomes worthless (hyperinflation) or the economy deflates through an unsupportable debt load.

Because of the tremendous obligations (financial) on the part of our Federal gov’t, I’m expecting hyperinflation. Any government that defaulted on its bonds, social security, and so forth, would be tossed out on its ear. The populace would vote in the spenders.

Expect a lot of refugees up there.

BTW: You are right about Bush. He and the Republicans had a chance to really turn this country around — slash spending, reform social security, cut the red tape, institute term limits, on and on. That’s why we voted the cocksuckers in in the first place. Turns out they’re all a bunch of goddamned cowards and tried to out-Democrat the Dems. Fucking traitors, all of 'em.

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

BTW: You are right about Bush. He and the Republicans had a chance to really turn this country around — slash spending, reform social security, cut the red tape, institute term limits, on and on. That’s why we voted the cocksuckers in in the first place. Turns out they’re all a bunch of goddamned cowards and tried to out-Democrat the Dems. Fucking traitors, all of 'em.

[/quote]
I understand your reaction, and I think it’s getting to be not uncommon in Republican circles. But hold on to your horses and save some cuss words for later. By the time the new Congress gets to the bottom of Cheney’s energy task force, I think it’s very likely you’re going to learn that Ahmad Chalabi was there to serve cake at the break, and the cake was shaped like Iraq.

If it should fall out that way, you and many others finding their patriotism was abused by this administration will be needing to turn up the volume. Some of you will be shouting the word “impeach.”

Strange that you bring up the Rodney King riots. But you DO make a point, when the police cross the line, shit hits the fan.
It happened when the police beat up Rodney King.
And it happened when the US invaded Iraq.