LOL! I remember the last few weeks before my first show. Benching 135 for sets of 8 and wanting nothing more than to get it over with so I could EAT! I think it's pretty common for everyone that it gets much easier the "next" time. I was setting PR's 2 weeks out by the time I stopped competing. For example, that 135x8 bench went to 225 for 25 2 weeks out about 4 years later. (Shoulder bothered me, so I decided not to go above 225). Anyway, the training will get easier.
As far as how many carbs before you spill... well that's the $64,000 question, isn't it?
This was always my philosophy:
At local level shows, which is as far as I chose to go, it seems MOST LIKELY that judges will like a guy that's dry as a bone. I've always erred on the side of "dry" rather than "full". It never failed that I had multiple people tell me in the gym come Monday that whatever I did Saturday night and all day Sunday AFTER the show I should have done precontest.
For me, the stress of spilling over BEFORE the show would send my cortisol levels through the roof! LOL.
As far as bloating, it seemed FOR ME, that as long as there was no water, I could eat as much as I wanted and never spill. And YES, shutting water off Thursday night and all day Friday and Sat was absolute HELL on my kidneys. My lower back would hurt for days after a contest. Not only that, it took an act of congress and a bottle of laxatives for me to finally take a dump.
It's a process of trial and error. From your pic at 2 weeks out you look fantastic and seem on track. Whatever method you choose You'll be ok.
I don't feel it's my place to tell anyone what they should do. I can only tell you what I did and try to explain the reasoning behind it.
There are much more qualified guys here that can help direct you.
Edit: After reading your post for a second time: The theory on "spilling". And a note to the peanut gallery: I'm a construciton worker, not a biologist, so lay off!
Your cells are looking for balance externally/internally. You don't want that balance. You want everithing INTERNAL and nothing EXTERNAL. That's the reason for high sodium and 3 gallons of water. A shit ton of water and sodium outside the cell causes sodium to excrete (rememebr the sodium/potassium pump works "backwards" salt flows TO salt. Anyway, you are forcing your cells to work like mad to keep any volume with that much extra cellular activity fo sodium/water.
Now, shut the water and sodium down and your cells don't immediately reverse. They still think you're trying to kill yourself! LOL. How long it takes for the cells to balance back out is how long you have before you start to hold extracellular water again.. or "spill over"
Would someone with more knowledge than how to swing a hammer please chime in?