The Center for Preventive Action’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) evaluates ongoing and potential violent conflicts based on the impact they could have on U.S. interests and their likelihood of occurring in the coming year. Policymakers have limited time and resources for preventive action and thus have to focus on a select number of potentially harmful contingencies from a myriad of possibilities. The PPS polls experts in the field and aims to help the U.S. policy community prioritize these competing conflict prevention and mitigation demands. Click on the map below to see the contingencies associated with each country:
http://www.cfr.org/conflict-prevention/preventive-priorities-survey-2013/p29673
I think Syria, Iran, and China could be the most likely.
The scenarios from the HIGH impact on U.S. interests and the PLAUSIBLE likelihood categorization are enough to send a chill down my spine.
Contingencies selected on the Threat Matrix appear below:
A highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
A major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces such as a Sino-Japanese clash over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
A mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally
An Iranian nuclear crisis such as a surprise advance in Iran?s nuclear weapons/delivery capability followed by an Israeli response
Nonstate actors acquire biological or chemical weapons from stockpiles in Syria
Severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks