If you want a system, you can use the rpe maxtrix to move around different intensities and rep ranges.
Say you’re starting with 200lbs and can lift it for 5 with one in the tank. If you want to know when you move to 220lbs for 5 with one rep in the tank then:
Work out the estimated max for 220. You do that by looking up 5 reps (across the top) on the matrix at RPE 9 (along the side), that says you’re lifting 84% of your max. So,
220 for 5@9 gives you an estimated max you need to hit of 262lbs (thats 220 ÷ 0.84; if you look up 5 reps at 9rpe that gives you 84%)
So now you need to work out how many reps you need to hit with 200 to give you an estimated max of 262lbs. Well, 200lbs is 76% of 262 (200 ÷ 262). If you look that up in the matrix, your options are:
9 reps as an all out max or 8 with 1 in the tank or 7 with 2 in the tank. I wouldn’t go below 2 in the tank estimates.
An all out max is a real grinder where the bar comes to a stop in the sticking point. So you may want to hit that 9 easier to be sure.
This should scale to your weights and you should be able to do this pretty quickly once you get the hang of it but it is a fair bit of overhead and it is only a guide. You can probably just use judgement and get close enough