T Nation

2020 Presidential Race


#424

The point was that a large amount of people did not vote for him showing that he wasn’t overly popular compared to what most would agree was a very despised opponent. I was further explaining that his diehards aren’t a big amount of people who can win 2020 alone.


#425

Fair. How do you see the current crop hopefuls and how do you think they’d fair in the general election? Do you think they could amass 270 EC votes?

Yea, I read that. Die hards for either base are relatively small, and the numbers, from what I’ve read, are usually relatively stable at about 20% or so of the overall voting bloc…I don’t have any link to back that up; iirc, I read it in a Politico article or RCP back in 2016. I’ve also read similar articles with similar stats regarding partisan bases … for each “side” they usually kind of cancel each other out and are fairly stable in terms of percentages

Not sure of the total numbers, though…


#426

That was my point, tbh. He certainly is vulnerable, but I think he’s got a >50% shot.

A lot is dependent on AZ and PA though. Michigan is probably lost to him by now.


#427

With every DEM thus far that declares; I see Trump:

  1. Giving each a nickname (“Pocahontas” is already taken care of); and

  2. Crushing them in the General Election like he does a Big Mac.


#428

I think Trump is incredibly vulnerable to a moderate Democrat like Biden, maybe Beto, etc. The simple fact of the matter is Trump isn’t popular. And he isn’t popular before being hammered by a single candidate and a single unified Democratic party (we can definitely argue about if they will be unified). People aren’t spending money in bulk on attack ads on him. All this is going on with a hot economy.

The idea that the economy could be this strong and you can still make very strong arguments for him losing says a lot. I think if Dems run a moderate and economy cools even a bit before the election I absolutely think 270 is achievable and honestly likely. If the economy stays hot and the Democrats tack hard left they will get crushed. I can’t see a scenario where the Dems run a moderate and get crushed. Even with a strong economy. That alone (imo) speaks to the weakness of Trump.


#429

Biden I can see … Beto? Trump’d eat that fool for lunch (keep in mind I’m not a Trump supporter per se) Beto is what I see as being wrong with Dem politicians … they’re weak pandering fools who try to damn hard … who skateboards out onto stage at a rally? An insecure fool, that’s who.

Polls suggest you’re right. However, the general trend is moving in Trump’s favor and with some time to go, time will tell if this position will hold (I’m looking at the RCP poll average and favorable/unfavorable gap is shrinking over time and converging).

True . however, this isn’t new to Trump. The economy has been gaining steam for something close to 10 years. I acknowledge Trump takes too much credit for this (and he deserves some with deregulation and corporate tax reduction, but not as much as he claims - also Obama claims too much credit for it as well, truth be told, I suspect it’s a paper tiger fueled by cheap money, i.e. QE and MMT, that we’ll see a bust sooner rather than later).

Ok, but a very strong argument can be made that he’ll win even against someone like Biden says a lot as well.

Aside from Biden, who do you think is a moderate who’d appeal to independents? I see a lot of these candidates doing more damage to their brand among independents than helping it. You have people like Gillibrand and Kobuchar who are very milquetoast to the point of being invisible.

Gabbard is being demonized by the media so I’d think she would have the best chance among those who have declared to this point, but is being eaten alive by her own party’s media wing so you know she won’t get the nomination.

Booker, Warren, and Harris are doing their best to alienate voters to the point they might as well call everyone who doesn’t vote for them deplorables and get it over with. Not the mention they appear very fucking weak on their pandering tour - they’re jokes.

Who am I missing? I know there are tons more, which is also a branding problem for the Dems - say they all stay in the race to the debates … they’ll just do Trump’s dirty work for him and pick each other apart by the time the nomination is over and the general is heating up there’ll be so much ammo for Trump he won’t have to do much to discredit them in the eyes of the average voter.

tl;dr - you have fair points for the most part, but I think you’re giving too much credit to the Dems for actually nominating a compelling moderate who’d appeal to a wide swath of independents. The Democratic party as it is right now is almost as divided as the Dems from Repubs or liberals from conservatives. There is a growing contingency in the Democratic party that is far left that’d never nominate someone like Biden. And if he did win the nomination, they wouldn’t vote for him like they didn’t vote for Hilary b/c they hamstrung Bernie the way they did. I just don’t see the Dems winning this even if Trump is in a weakened state (which I don’t think he’s as weak as you might think he is).


#430

Do I EVER agree with this one, @polo77j

AOC in 2020!!!


#431

She’s too young … She’ll be old enough in 2024 but probably would have done too much to damage her brand by that point … who knows


#432

I will be honest I don’t know a ton about Beto but he seemed like a moderate from what I read. I don’t think his performance in Texas is anything to sneeze at but I don’t know a bunch about him as I didn’t really follow that race except towards the end.

Which are still really low. It’s worth noting that GWB won a close 04 election and he was sitting at a 50% approval on RCP at the time. Trump is as high as he has been in forever and he still isn’t busting 45%. I still think his ceiling is low and would be surprised if he hits 50% before election. (Doesn’t keep him from winning on face value).

I agree but disagree! Trump has the power of the incumbency and a hot economy. A standard Republican would be killing 2020 at this point. Hell Trump would be killing 2020 if he didn’t constantly shoot himself in the foot. I think the Dems would run a sure loser like Dole was in 96 if Trump wasn’t so vulnerable.

I don’t really disagree on much here. I think Biden is their strongest candidate and I think he’d be close to even money vs. Trump. I will disagree with the left not supporting him in the general. I think in 2016 even some Dems had a curiosity about Trump. Cats out of the bag now and they will be highly motivated to turnout against him no matter who the nominee is. That said if they tack hard left I don’t think center left dems and independents come out. I’m sort of ignoring that scenario right now simply because if they do that I think they lose handily when we’re discussing the vulnerability of the president.

I’ve said I wouldn’t bet money against the President. I’d be hard pressed right now to bet on him though. I have to think it’s pretty scary to have an economy like this and have a President who is still tracking so much lower than his predecessors.

Anyways that’s the way I see it.


#433

Thanks bud … appreciate your perspective


#434

Same to you. I don’t really watch any 24 hour type news like I did when I was in college and admittedly follow politics less than I used to. Mainly because I pretty much subscribe to the idea that it all sucks no matter what. I do like looking at and discussing the likelihood that we will get the turd sandwich or the giant douche.


#435

If we could get the sleeping giant Hispanic vote to go to the polls in mass it would flip overnight but all the stats say they just don’t vote in large enough number so far. This will be a major push for the Democratic Party in 2020.


#436

This is the biggest wildcard to me right now. This past midterm saw record breaking Dem turnout. Last time the GOP was spanked that hard was off the back of Watergate.

I think with average turnout Trump loses the EC by a bit and the popular vote by even more than last time.

Fingers still crossed that the next Dem POTUS axes the EC.


#437

I would be for it (I know we’ve all done the debate on this forum before) though I don’t care if it’s a Dem or Republican. I’m pretty sure public polling has long held people desiring the popular vote over the status quo.


#438

I think the reason it hasn’t changed is because the powers that be would be losing a lever they can use to control voters.

No way they let that go except by force imo.


#439

Yeah it just doesn’t make sense to me. “Here are the 8 states that matter this election. Watch your politicians only go to those 8 states and spend all their money on those 8 states.!”


#440

You’re a goddam lunatic


#441

I just want equal votes between citizens. I like to think if the FFs were here I still wouldn’t care about their opinion lol.


#442

Well what you want and what you get will be completely different things.

What you want is “equal votes” what you’ll get is essentially the dissolution of States and the vast amount of political power will be centralized in just a few metropolitan areas.

I get that … this just adds to my argument that you’re a goddam lunatic haha


#443

That’s some hyperbole right der.

Why do people always reword the phrase “power in the hands of the people” and frame it like it’d be end times.

To be fair, I disagree with them on owning people and women voting as well :stuck_out_tongue: