T Nation

2020 Predictions

Sadly at our expense it looks like a big miss on number 3? Man, he is really the wrong guy for this challenge right now. Well, as I’ve heard time and time again, elections have consequences.

True, @magnumd…but Trump is smart…evil smart…

He puts himself “out-front” in these COVID updates to show that he is “in-charge”…then turns around and tweets and says things that shows that he has no idea what he is dealing with, nor the magnitude of it. Like Fauci said: “The VIRUS determines what we do next” (not visa-versa).

Yet if history is any indication…Trump will get any and all credit for “ending” the crisis; and for the bailout; by his Minions.

Moving on…I still think he wins a second Term. And I probably still hold on to my initial predictions…for now.

I believe I said earlier in a different thread I think the virus has a potential to help him far more than hurt. Even if he’s still being himself he’s being himself less often which bodes well for him as he can and has hurt himself much worse than any Democrat line could. Now you’re giving people an infusion of financial relief during a crisis which isn’t ever unpopular.

I still think his comments on not taking it seriously will end up being forgotten as just typical Trump not knowing what he’s talking about noise. I’d say most voters are pretty aware that him pretending he knows things is just the way he rolls. Having to be constantly corrected by people on his own team for outright lies isn’t new so I don’t think it changes much.

He will get a lot of credit should things get back to a “normal” sense anytime in the near future. I have said if the economy tanked he would lose, but this is different. It’s the economy tanking from an outside force that even if we weren’t as prepared as we could be was certainly unexpected and unavoidable in real terms. You also see bipartisanship during times of crisis which always helps the incumbent. No one hammered bush much for a while post 9/11. That always goes away of course.

I do think an area that is certainly unknown is money wise. If this is still hanging around we are in a new world in a sense for what type of campaign things can be done. And it’s likely that neither candidate raises anywhere near the amount that we would expect in a typical say July-November run-up. Trumps big cash advantage should maintain, but the effects of it might be a bit hard to predict based on where this goes.

I’m still leaning at least in my own mind that this actually helps him more long run than hurts. If this is the number one thing on peoples minds you can’t really hit him on a lot of previous comments which would have been prime real estate. I mean 2.2 trillion is going to make it hard to say he stood by and did nothing even if he may have had no hand in the bill that’s not how people think. A lot of people short term will be happy because they are being given money in the mail.

It’s really too early to make any type of predictions about the impact of this on the race without massive speculation which I can admit fully I’m doing. I have no fucking clue really and in 10 weeks he may be just as likely to look like a lock for another four as he is to look screwed. These are just the things that make a bit of sense to me as I think through them with how things are at this moment. He really needs to preach unity, stand by doctors and say things like we are providing relief in these type of ways. I can’t imagine any scenario where he is opposed to spending if it’s in the wheelhouse of hospitals and emergency personnel. As long as he avoids direct action which looks like it’s costing a significant amount of lives he should be in a pretty solid spot.

That’s my rambling thoughts Mufasa.

I hope you’re right, man. This is unprecedented social and monetary policy.

Most businesses cannot sustain 2 months of cessation of trading, and the knock on effects will be absolutely awful.

Trump did not lockdown anything. All he has done is brag about his guidelines which is on par with bragging about the food pyramid. Yet, he says he is thinking about opening the country back up. Governors decide lockdowns and when to lift them. Trump can say he wants traders back on the floor of the stock exchange but Cuomo and maybe even Blasio, can say no.

So why does he say he will lift these lockdowns when he can’t? Is it to shift blame and responsibility on governors? He can say he wanted to open things up but they refused.

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Shifting blame and responsibility certainly is Trump’s MO, @zecarlo.

Remains to be seen, but I agree. However I am hopeful that the stimulus does it’s job well for once. Besides which, we are seeing a lot of private sector pull together on this. It may be one time that “circling the wagons” works in our favor.

If we need to deal with multiple waves of this virus because we didn’t get enough test kits, PPE, masks, ventilators, didn’t install testing centers at all major airports and didn’t get a serology test working at scale before “opening” things back up…yes, things will take a gnarly turn

100% agree. A working vaccine passing trials literally cannot come soon enough.

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He has pretty much hinted, if not flat out said, that the states should buy their own ventilators and other equipment and materials, and that they are solely responsible for their lack of readiness. I wonder how much it will cost the federal government to buy ventilators vs how much they are giving to Boeing. States have to be responsible for how they find themselves but corporations don’t have to worry about being held accountable for how they find themselves.

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How would it be “shifting” blame away from himself if it’s something you are saying he isn’t even responsible for in the first place?

Man, who knows? It’s probably what you said but not all that thought out since he’s “always” just acting on instinct…

A lot of people are dumb. He can say whatever he wants and he’ll be believed.

Then again you could be right and he thinks he has that power.

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Looks like the DEMS are going Virtual Convention.

Any word from the GOP?

I assume they’ll follow suit. It’d be a bad look to not do so.

Not sure that Biden can avoid debates without imploding though.

OR without being decimated by Trump.

Trump is the master of avoid, distract and attack…a skill that he has fine-tuned by attacking the Press. I just don’t think that it will be hard for Trump to get Biden off whatever game plan he brings to the debates.

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I do. It’s hard to distract someone with a mind as rock-solid as Joe Biden’s.

If I’m betting on it, both will get side tracked.

I doubt you’ll be betting on it, then; nobody’s taking that.

@mnben87; agree…but,

The second part of the tri-fecta that Trump has mastered is distract (which often goes hand-in-hand with blaming others).

If Trump gets sidetracked, he’ll just 1) blast the questioner (who are often from “fake news” organizations) 2) get off into some comfortable territory that has nothing to do with the question (like the “witch-hunts” against him); and blame anybody and everybody but himself…and in what, 90 seconds (or however long they get for questions and rebuttals)?.

How the debates go (IMO) is painfully predictable. Trump will never truly “lose” a question.

I think that being locked down with no more public appearances is the best thing to ever happen to Biden.

Dude was twilighting hard on the campaign trail.

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Agree, @SkyzykS.

He was losing it on more than one occasion. (Remember how easy it was to set him off with that factory worker’s “Why do you want to take away my guns (bullshit) question?”.

While Biden is resting and isolating…Trump is sharpening his skills and attacks, mostly with the Press.