T Nation

2020 Predictions

Ah! The new “Roaring Twenties”!

I do not predict the return of Flappers; Prohibition; Thompson Sub-Machine Guns on the streets of the big cities…or of Al Capone (no need…we already have a thug in the White House…sorry; I couldn’t help myself!)

So…let’s share some 2020 Predictions! Here are mine!

  1. Impeachment will be a “nothing-burger” and the “Teflon Don” of all Teflon Don’s will slither away with another “win”.

  2. The SDNY will hand down numerous indictments, including against Giuliani. I don’t think he will “flip”…but his mouth will implicate Trump in some way.

  3. Somehow, in someway, Trump will still not be faced with a “big test” like many President’s in the past have (e.g. 9/11; World-Wide Financial Crisis, etc.). In other words, test that one cannot tweet themselves out of or blame on others.

  4. We will slowly, but surely, see escalating violence in the Middle East with the involvement of more and more American Troops.

  5. The Economy will still be in an upward and positive cycle, insuring not only a second term for Trump…but one that he wins in a landslide…

  6. Turnout will be one of the largest in History…feeding Trumps ego to levels never before seen.

  7. Trump will hold at least one rally. (lolz…)

  8. The Dems will retain the House…and perhaps capture the Senate.

Okay…

Those are some of my predictions!

The floor is now OPEN!

Alphonse Gabriel  Capone

(P.S. Pic of Alphonse Gabriel “Al” Capone…pronounced originally “Ca-pon-E”. Nice silk tie. I understand he liked red and blue ones like Trump? Oh well…!)

By the way…

This was one Hellacious piece of Bad-Assery…

This is the 1921 Model of the Thompson Sub-machine Gun (The “Tommy Gun”).

If you saw a “violin case” coming your way…you were about 10 seconds away from a Dirt Nap…

Oh…

The Supreme Court will hand down historic decisions guaranteed to anger half of the nation, both Left and Right.

Those decisions will be measured and limited…and not always as “Conservative” as perhaps hoped for.

The floor is now open!

Any additional predictions, or criticisms of mine?

Have at it, guys!

I predict trump’s approval rating will stay between 36 and 44% (not including polls like Rasmussen, which are land line poles which poll older people who have land lines).

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No way. His approval rating is so low, and consistently low, that there is at least as many that won’t vote for him under any circumstances as those that will vote for him even if he kills kittens on youtube. They essentially cancel out. Last time around, the turnout was low because many thought Trump had no chance and there wasn’t much excitement for Hillary. This year, the anti-Trump vote will be out in full force which will at least off-set the pro-Trump vote.

Now, that leaves maybe 15-20% that will decide the election. Could Trump win? Of course, but if he does it won’t be a landslide and I would predict he will certainly lose the popular vote again.

I think trump will lose the popular vote. I am not sure about the electoral college.

I say 50/50. However, IMO, any other president with an economy as it is now, and no major tests would enjoy a landslide victory.

Just to add to what @antiquity and @mnben87 said…

Don’t you guys “feel” that the DEMS have not learned and are about to pull another “Hillary”? In other words; push Biden as the nominee come hell or high water?

While I have absolutely no enthusiasm for any of the DEM candidates left…the party “seems” to have moved Left of Biden.

I’m with you, @mnben87

A strong economy and no major test…I feel strongly that at this point, the election is Trump’s to lose.

To pull another “Hillary”, the candidate would have to be… Hillary again. She is just hard to like. Biden is a gaff machine, but is more likeable. He seems to have gotten past the creepy thing (at least I have not heard much about it lately).

I do not particularly like Biden, but would vote for him. I was very tempted to vote 3rd party last election. I don’t feel that temptation with Biden as an option.

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Biden is like Hillary in that he’s an establishment Democrat, but he has appeal in all the states Hillary needed but lost.

The left-of-Biden crowd is more vocal and more enthusiastic about their candidate (be it Bernie or Elizabeth). It’s easy to confuse intensity for numbers, but I’m not sure they’re a majority. According to the most recent RCP national poll average, support for Biden + Pete + Amy + Bloomberg is 44.7%. Support for Bernie + Elizabeth + Yang is 37.1%. That’s probably an OK estimate of the number of moderate to center-left Democrats vs. the number of left to far-left.

Three more predictions…

  1. We’re going to have a particularity tough recession that we’re not equipped to deal with. We’ve used up the fiscal (tax cuts) and monetary (lowering interest rates) tools we typically use to deal with a recession in order to keep the current economic expansion going. We’ve basically binged on all the food stores before the famine.

  2. We’re going to continue to see a national government that doesn’t reflect the will of the governed. Republicans will be over-represented in the House due to Gerrymandering, in the Senate due to election rules biasing rural states, and in White House due to the Electoral Collage.

  3. I think polarization in the job market will speed up in the next decade as automation and algorithms become more sophisticated and easier for companies to adopt. It’s something that has affected people I know directly. You’re going to have to master these trends, be displaced by them… or work retail.

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Yes, unfortunately. I am not high on Biden but would vote unenthusiastically for him over Trump. I think CNN and others really want it to be Biden, and there is the sentiment among many that Biden should be the choice because he has the best chance against Trump.

I can relate to this, @kjm

In most recent national elections, it has probably gotten me every time. AS IT RELATES TO POLITICS; I tend to be “swayed” by the most visible and vocal in forming an opinion on who is ahead/who will win/who has the momentum…that type of thing.

I know I have said this many times but nothing really points to a Trump landslide. He is simply polling too low for too long (at this moment of course) to assume he cruises to an easy blowout win.

A close electoral win and another popular vote loss is far more likely to me.

No one on the Dem side will have the type of negative approval that Hilary did. It’s virtually impossible for them to run a worse candidate in terms of strong negative feeling. Of course the same is true. We should be talking about 2024 with the economy like this. It’s only because he’s not an adult that this one will be worth watching.

Also worth noting that the Bernie people and the left in general were not highly motivated to vote for her. That will not be an issue for the Dem front runner this time around. They may not be excited to vote for the Dem because it’s not the one they wanted but they will be hyped to vote against Trump in a way that they simply weren’t in 2016.

May sound like a “duh” statement…

But it seems like who actually turns out in the greatest numbers to vote will be crucial.

This.

I predict if the dems nominate anyone other than Biden we will lose. Biden is the only candidate who can win the must win states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If trump loses those, he’s done. If we are stupid enough to select a far left candidate and lose my only hope is that the dems will win the senate and therefore leave trump as a lame duck president for his last term. He won’t be able to pass gas.

News from my neck of the woods and it’s not human trafficking or opioids. Huzzah!

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I think there is some truth to this. I do think a far left candidate like Bernie could win, it’s just going to be harder IMO.

I think no matter who the Dems run, they will win the popular vote. Not that that matters one bit.

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George Carlin captures it perfectly just substitute Dan Q with any present day politician you like.

There will not be are recession it will be the MOTHER OF ALL DEPRESSIONS!!
The 30s will be like a tea party in comparison! It is all about DEBT! This now stands at almost a
Quintillion it can never be paid back.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”
Albert Einstein

“They will throw their money in the streets, tossing it out like worthless trash. Their silver and gold won’t save them on that day of the LORD’s anger. It will neither satisfy nor feed them, for their greed can only trip them up."

You can’t eat gold, silver, or bitcoin.

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Been watching much history channel lately? :joy:

At this point I don’t see a great depression type crash. However if we have to go through multiple virus waves it becomes more of a possibility.

My prediction is Trump screws up the virus response. Beyond that I’m not making any more until I see things start to shape up