2017 Predictions

Um, the above simply proves that whole ‘not an existential threat’ narrative, unequivocally false. They are a real threat, why do you think we are carrying out Operation Inherent Resolve if they were not. We are at war, already. Now, in the present.

First, this was Obama’s directive. Assad must go. Second, Syria is not Iraq and Iraq is not Syria. Mistakes of war do not have to be repeated. Ideally, NATO would be the proper body to lead such a thing. Whether or not they actually do their job is another matter. The point is moot since Assad, now bolstered by the Russians, is not going anywhere.

There were several failures in Iraq, one was underestimating the enemy, second was dismantling the entire infrastructure of the country when it did not need to be dismantled. And third, was leaving before the objective of leaving Iraq only after it was stable was realized.

The biggest myth surrounding Iraq, is that if we had not gone in in 2003 we would have never gone in and everything would be peaceful and rosy. That’s bunk. Saddam violated every single Security Counsel resolution put in place after the first war, was a state sponsor of terror, and a constant threat. President Clinton, in 1998 signed into law Saddam’s ouster. Removing Saddam from that point on, was a matter of American law. Saddam wasn’t going to stop being a problem and chances were, we were going to war with Iraq at some point. If not 2003, then 2004, 2005, 2008… as his violations and human rights violations mounted, there would have been more and more pressure to go to war with Iraq.
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OK, if not the Saudis, then who is/are the state sponsors of ISIS? What states are you proposing we “squash”?
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I said ISIS are occupiers. I am talking about countries say like Sudan, who knowingly harbor and support terrorists and their operations. Now Sudan, has taken some measures (largely thanks to continuous drone strikes) to reduce their terror footprint, but they would be an example of a state, prior to that, as a harbor and sponsor. As long as Sudan (reluctantly) acts to remove terrorists from their country then they should be fine.

The blood on the wall you should be watching is Syria, Yemen and Iran (separately from ISIS). We are a hair’s breath from massive escalations with these countries. It’s tragically under reported as the media tends to focus on celebrity feuds inside and outside the political sphere, one wrong move there could lead to massive escalations.
One of these days we are going to shoot down an Iranian plane harassing our navy, that may be the only spark needed for said escalation to take place.

The world is a very unstable place right now. Anything could happen. You have N.Korea doing their normal, but much increased saber rattling. You have China planting their flag in international waters in the S. China Sea, illegally. Russia bolstering Assad. Russia annexing Crimea. Increased American troops in Poland and Iraq. And we haven’t even delved into the quagmires in Africa. A lot of things can go wrong very quickly.

For some reason, I’m not being allowed to quote your comment.

“Um, the above simply proves that whole ‘not an existential threat’ narrative, unequivocally false.”

63 dead out of a population of 325M qualifies as representing an existential threat? I respectfully disagree.

“They are a real threat”

Yes. But not an existential one.

“Assad must go.”

Yes, that remains our official position.

“Second, Syria is not Iraq and Iraq is not Syria”

I agree. Owing to the multitude of teams on the field, an invasion of Syria is vastly more likely to end badly than did the invasion of Iraq.

“NATO would be the proper body to lead such a thing”

Why on earth would NATO intercede in Syria, especially given the tensions among Syria, the Kurds and Turkey (a NATO member)?

“Saddam violated every single Security Counsel resolution put in place after the first war, was a state sponsor of terror, and a constant threat.”

How soon we forget:

“Saddam wasn’t going to stop being a problem and chances were, we were going to war with Iraq at some point.”

I disagree, but of course there’s no way of ever knowing. All we know is we did go to war, and the result has been an unmitigated disaster.

“The world is a very unstable place right now. Anything could happen.”

All the more reason not to get mired down in another ME ‘ground game.’

Imagine how powerful and big ISIS would be if we did nothing? We did nothing in the beginning, being called the “JV Team” and they exploded on the scene. We cannot get rid of them from the air unless we are willing to take out all the Iraqi and Syrian people being held hostage. We cannot do nothing because the genocide will increase to mammoth proportions. So what do you propose?

It was fine until we left the country prematurely. Had we waited until the Iraqi government was secure and had a military that could defend themselves the results would have been much different. Imagine if we had done that in Europe after WW2? Just pick up our ball and go home? It would still be a war zone. The mission was not complete, everybody knew that and we pulled out anyway, only to return in less than 2 years.

Further we already have ‘boots on the ground’ in Iraq. 4500 and counting. The number is only going to go up not down.

There were also multiple occupiers in Europe after WW2…which led to the burden of nation rebuilding not resting solely on us.

We are doing a fine job of degrading them from the air. (I disagree with your premise that the goal is to “get rid of them” in the sense of killing every single ISIS fighter.)

I have seen no evidence of a ‘genocide of mammoth proportions’ occurring–can you elaborate?

I would be very interested to hear how many people share your opinion that Iraq was “going fine” until we were forced to leave by the SOFA.

Again, I have to dispute your premise; ie, that an effective Iraqi national government was in the offing, if only we had given them more time.

Oh, but for a little more ball-picking-up-and-going-home. If only France and GB had done so in 1916 (as opposed to divvying up the ME into artificial countries), the region might well not be in the state it is today.

http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/yazidi-victim-isis-genocide-they-beheaded-children-axes

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/17/politics/us-iraq-syria-genocide/

And if you are going to quote me, quote me accurately. I said if unchecked, ISIS ‘would have’ committed genocides of mass proportions in and above the smaller genocides they already have committed. I am not sure how much genocide you require to prompt action, I have a low tolerance myself.

I have already addressed this. We can only degrade them from the air. To get rid of ISIS you need a ground game, period. That’s not a commitment to kill every ISIS fighter, but the organization needs to be destroyed. And that also is not enough, it takes cyber warfare. Communications destruction, strangling the supply lines in and out of ISIS territory. All that requires a ground game. And the U.S. should not be the only one involved, but it should be involved. It’s our fight as much as others. You can count on scant little Arab help. However much they dislike ISIS, they shy away at attacking fellow muslims, even if those muslims are murderous lunatics who threaten the Arab world.
ISIS cannot just be degraded, as we speak they are pouring more and more resources into their terror wing of the group. As they lose territory, their ‘soldiers’ are being redeployed to reek havoc around the world.
The very worst way to fight a war is to drag it out. This leads to far more death and destruction. The ‘safest’ war is the war you win quickly and decisively.
Because of our reluctance and tepidness in this fight, the dangers of world wide terror have increased, casualties have mounted and peoples continue to suffer under this suffocating environment.
The only way you are going to beat them in the air is to bomb every square inch of territory into the stone age, but you are going to take the captives with them. We can choke them out, but the first to starve will be the people.
Like it or not, this operation is going to require troops. Trying to avoid the obvious is like trying to dance between the rain drops in order to not get wet. It’s a dirty business so people have to get their hands dirty to fix it.

Raining bombs from the sky will not defeat a determined enemy, especially one who has adopted death as a weapon. We’ve played whack a mole with terrorists for too long. Anywhere there is strife and instability they will pop up unless we take them out. You’re not going to talk them out of it. You have to prove there is no caliphate and there will never be a caliphate. Only when there is no caliphate to fight for will they give up the notion.

Thanks for the links.

It is indeed a very difficult thing to determine.

I, too, have already addressed this. In my opinion, the costs–in blood, treasure and international relations–associated with ‘getting rid of ISIS’ far exceeds the benefits that would accrue from doing so.

Now you are making my argument.

There were 2 functional ones. The French were hardly lightening the load that much, and the British were flat broke.

I’m trying to get up to speed on the Middle East a bit, and that National Interest article was really helpful.

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Is that how we beat Nazism?

If you’re referring to WWII, we didn’t ‘beat Nazism’–we beat the states comprising the Axis powers.

And as a quick Google search will confirm, Nazism has not been ‘beaten’—it is still very much with us. Fortunately, it’s not doing all that well in the battlespace of ideas, so it’s not thriving.

The ideology was diminished through force. Bullets and bombs sent it to the back burner, not kind words and friendly debate.

[quote=“Alrightmiami19c, post:195, topic:224861”]
The ideology was diminished through force. Bullets and bombs sent it to the back burner [emphasis mine] [/quote]

Not saying this to be obnoxious, but I feel like you’re basically agreeing with me now.

You’re both (three?) arguing in circles. Nazism still exists, as radical jihadism will continue to, regardless of how many members of ISIS are killed. However, killing a whole lot of a group, whether it be ISIS or the Nazi’s, will profoundly limit their ability to do whatever it is that they want to do.

There are at least two front to this “war” against ISIS. Killing them is only part of it.

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Yes, I was surprised when the ‘Nazism’ counter-argument was re-animated. I thought that one had been buried deeply enough previously. And consistent with what I’ve said throughout, I’m all for continuing the process of degrading ISIS (the genteel synonym for ‘killing a whole lot of them’). Was never my intention to suggest we switch to a primarily Twitter-based strategy.

At any rate, good synopsis.

ED, we had this Nazism argument a bit ago. And I said who cares if they are still around in a diminished capacity? If they are not killing anyone they can exist all they want.

Plenty of nutty ideologies currently exist all over the world but they are not killing people so it doesn’t really matter. Look at the Church of Scientology…Ha

Seriously, we defeat Isis the same way we defeated Imperial Japan and the Nazis. We start killing them and we don’t stop until they are no longer a threat. Just like the little Nazi groups that meet at the Polish home every other Wednesday and salute a poster of Adolf Hitler. Who cares? No one is harmed.

My guess is Obama didn’t launch a full scale attack for a couple of reasons,. The first he refused to listen to his generals and he actually fired a few of them. Secondly, I honestly don’t think he wants to kill Muslims of any stripe. He used to be a Muslim (some argue he still is I am not one of them). And he has a soft spot in his heart for that parrticular religion. I read back in 2015 that he ordered leaflets to be dropped warning Isis drivers to get out of their trucks transporting oil before they were bombed.

This is not how the US has won wars in the past. And thank God Obama is gone on Friday at 12 noon.

I will add to the above that one reason we are not getting help from Muslims who do not identify with Isis is because they fear Isis far more than they respect the US. If we were more aggressive in our actions there would be more Muslims coming forward to assist us.