T Nation

2016 NFL Off-Season


#1

Going to be an interesting year…

Collinsworth’s picks:

  1. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, California

  2. Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

  3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

  4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State

  5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

  6. Baltimore Ravens: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

  7. San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon

  8. Cleveland Browns: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville

  10. New York Giants: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

  11. Chicago Bears: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

  12. New Orleans Saints: Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson

  13. Miami Dolphins: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

  14. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Floyd, DE/OLB, Georgia

  15. Tennesse Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

  16. Detroit Lions: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

  17. Atlanta Falcons: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

  18. Indianapolis Colts: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

  19. Buffalo Bills: Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky

  20. New York Jets: William Jackson III, CB, Houston

  21. Washington Redskins: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama

  22. Houston Texans: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

  23. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State

  24. Cincinnati Bengals: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

  25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State

  26. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama

  27. Green Bay Packers: Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor

  28. Kansas City Chiefs: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

  29. Arizona Cardinals: Shilique Calhoun, OLB, Michigan State

  30. Carolina Panthers: Kevin Dodd, DE/OLB, Clemson

  31. Denver Broncos: Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana


#2

Grew up an hour outside Philadelphia, and have remained a lifelong Eagles fan.

Have to say that I hated the Eagles trade for the #2 pick. I understand that (generally) having a star quarterback makes it substantially easier to build a good team in today’s game, but I do not think the gap between Goff/Wentz and the next handful of QB prospects in this draft is nearly worth the price they paid to move up. I would have much preferred that they kept the #8 pick, took the best available defensive player on the board at that time, and then looked to take a flyer on someone like Christian Hackenberg or Connor Cook somewhere later in the draft. I just don’t think it’s a lock that Wentz is a better NFL prospect than either of those guys, and there’s no way it was worth sacrificing a first, second, and third round pick to move up from #8 to #2.

This calculus changes when there’s a true can’t-miss QB prospect on the board - Elway, Manning, and Luck being the best examples I can think of. But the truth is that many of the top QB’s in today’s game (even excluding Brady, who’s somewhat of an anomaly) were not guys that went at the tippy-top of the draft. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees…many of the league’s best passers came in the middle-late first round. There’s just not much historical evidence that a trade up to the #2 pick is EVER worth it.


#3

I really like Wentz. This might be a bad thing for the “eggles”. Wentz would be able to go into Philly and learn from Bradford and Chase. Neither of those two are great QBs, but they definitely have knowledge he can learn from.


#4

I almost like this time of year in the NFL as much as the season.


#5

I don’t think the Giants would let Zeek get by them at 10. I would not be upset at all if Dallas took Zeek at 4.

Jack and Lee at the linebacker spots on Dallas would be awesome. We can’t take him though because I thought I read he is still not back from injury.


#6

I agree with this completely. The historical evidence is clear, teams shouldn’t trade up for a top five pick, maybe even a top ten to use on a quarterback.

Maybe they could make it work if they were willing to sit these top draft picks for a year or two because young quarterbacks really need an apprenticeship before taking on the starting role. Those that get thrust right in there (top draft picks) get destroyed mentally and sometimes physically because they’re not ready.

NFL teams need to learn to suck it up, despite the millions they pay to these quarterbacks, and sit them until their ready.


#7

Wentz played in a subdivision conference and was out 8 weeks with a broken wrist. As an Eagles fan, I think it was a dumb trade but hopefully Howie proves me wrong


#8

for the first time in forever my AZ Cards don’t have to reach in the draft. we’re solid in all phases so we can really do BPA. stay at 29 or trade back. it was worth our 2nd rnd for Chandler Jones from NE. we could use a center but don’t have to hope for Kelly to fall. several OL have played multiple positions so that’s a nice option as well as a pure center in later rnds.
I think there will be a better QB class next year. Palmer still has a few years and Stanton is a good backup…but you never know what the cueball brothers will do. I can be fairly sure we’ll draft some small school players that will be great…Smoke Brown, JJ Nelson, David Johnson, Justin Bethel, Rodney Gunther, and Darren Fells to name a few currently on the roster


#9

I must admit - as much as I hate the trade, I will be rooting like hell for Wentz (if indeed he is the choice) to succeed. I remember Eagles fans booing the Donovan McNabb choice (preferring Ricky Williams!) and Donovan went on to become the most successful QB in franchise history. Sure, we didn’t sell the farm for McNabb the way we’ve just done for Wentz, but that doesn’t make it Wentz’s fault.

My fear is that the entire backlash for the trade will fall on Wentz, and if he’s not an immediate savior, that Philly fans will savagely turn on him and turn him into the poster boy for everything wrong with the team. In that vein, I kinda hope that Bradford / Daniel take all of the snaps this year, and that Wentz comes into camp next year (once some of the vitriol has settled down) with a year’s experience learning Doug Pederson’s system, and has a chance to win the job for the 2017 season.

@on_edge: this is kind of an obvious statement to call a “theory” but I’m generally a believer that NFL quarterback prospects fall into three (very) broad categories. The first category is the guys who will make it absolutely anywhere, who would succeed with any non-awful team and any non-awful coach (Andrew Luck being a good example). There are very few of those guys, only one every couple of years. The third category is the guys who just aren’t good enough, whether that’s a lack of talent or inability to play the incredibly complex position of NFL quarterback (guys like Geno Smith or Blaine Gabbert, who have at no point shown that they are capable of leading an NFL offense). The middle category is the most interesting: guys who do have the necessary skills but need to land with the right coach in the right system to succeed.

Of the currently active QB’s, I think eight or nine fall into that first category - they would have made it no matter who drafted them" (remember, I’m not rating them on how good they are today, just looking at the body of their careers, was this guy a genuine bona-fide star QB that you could win a Super Bowl with): Brady, Brees, Eli, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, maybe even Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson. Watching all of them, you just know that they belong in the league, and any team with one of these guys is an instant contender as long as the supporting cast is remotely competent. Those are the guys who are true franchise QB’s.

A notch below that, you have a bunch of middle-class guys who are good enough to lead a good team with a good coach, but who are at least somewhat dependent on that environment around them being right: Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford types, past examples being guys like Matt Schaub, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon…put them on a really good team, or give them a coach that can play to their strengths and minimize their weaknesses, and they’ll be functional, maybe even very good. But put them on a bad team and they’ll flounder.

Teams get hurt when they’re desperate for QB help and convince themselves that a guy from that second group is really in the first group. There have been a handful of times - Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Blake Bortles being good examples - where I felt like the guy drafted might have been just barely good enough to work on a good team, but clearly was not good enough to turn around a team with holes all over the map.

Mark Sanchez also typifies this. His first couple of years in the league, on a team with a strong running game and the league’s best defense, he looked OK. Not great, but he took the Jets to a pair of AFC title games, and the story was that he was cool under pressure and could handle the spotlight with a good team around him. Then the rest of the Jets fell off and he turned into a complete punchline.

TL:DR, I don’t know if sitting the guy for a year matters all that much - I think guys that can play in the League are going to be fine if they have to start as rookies. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck types…even Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger…those guys were fine starting from Day One. The problem comes in when you take a guy who’s really a second-tier “just good enough to be in the League” QB and try to turn him into a franchise savior.


#10

I am very excited about the Cowboys pick. Zeek


#11

Bears had to trade up to get Leonard Floyd before the Giants. I can’t say I’m excited about the pick but I don’t watch a lot of UGA football, either.

6’4" 240lbs doesn’t scream OLB to me, but with some good coaching by Fangio and a lot of time at an all-you-can eat buffet he might become a standout pass rusher.

I think everyone else’s picks have been solid, no real surprises so far.

edited.


#12

I’m excited for Elliot too. He seems like he has a great attitude. I’m not an OSU fan, but their run last year was fun to watch. He was great. I’m looking forward to watching his NFL career.

I didn’t realize he could catch the ball so well.


#13

I heard a stat today on Zeke. On 100+ pass plays that he was involved in blocking, he did not allow a sack or qb hit.


#14

Every down back! Great offensive line! I don’t even like the Cowboys, but it’s hard not to get hype about America’s Team during the off season.


#15

If the Cowboys can keep their star players healthy, this offense will be able to do whatever they want. 9-10 minute drives coming away with 7 on damn near every possession.

Zeke also helps the defense.


#16

Who knows if Romo will play at his original level after the broken collar bone though.


#17

mbdix, I’m glad you’re posting in this thread.

I’m actually hoping to put two, if not 3, of my kids through college by fading your NFL predictions this year.

:troll:


#18

Haha. Yeah, I wouldn’t stop posting in these threads. I love football.


#19

Yeah, that injury doesn’t have any impact on the field. As long as it is healed. He underwent a surgery to help strengthen the bone and is already throwing the ball at full strength.

It would be a beautiful thing if he can stay on the field all year.