I don’t think they’ll be that crazy. #8 and #9 lost, #7 has lost two games. I think it actually stays pretty much the same except Ohio State gets a big bump. You can’t put Clemson/Michigan below two loss Wisconsin.
I think Washington will be hurt a bit more, strength of schedule matters.
Alabama looks solid, even if they lose the iron bowl or conference championship I still think they’re in. They have a lot of big wins and everybody else has a loss now.
I’m an adopted Alabama fan because my wife played soccer there. I went to a D2 school in Colorado so i sort of root for CU and am happy to see they are having a good year. Usually they are lucky to make a bowl game.
More of an overall fan who gives my wife shit when Alabama isn’t looking like a semi-pro team.
I’m actually not sure what has changed to get them to put a decent team on the field, but its fun to see them in the conversation. Can’t come close to the strength of schedule of SEC though, so no chance at this years college playoff unless serious chaos over the next few weeks.
Agreed. 2, 3, 4 losing seems like a big deal but they’re basically blocked “below” (for now) because they have all beaten teams ranked in that 7, 8, 9, 10 range (Wisconsin being a good example: Michigan won’t be dropped beneath Wisconsin, a team they have beaten which has 2 losses…at least not yet; similarly Clemson probably can’t drop much below Louisville, owning a h2h win).
There still are a number of interesting placements to check out, though. Ordinarily I am a big believer in sticking with h2h results when possible, but it’s really hard to justify ranking Clemson ahead of Louisville when the overall body of work by Louisville is much more impressive (just about the only justification for Clemson over Louisville is their narrow home win in a h2h matchup; otherwise Louisville has been more impressive against every common opponent). What they do with the Big Ten is another (is it really possible for either Penn State or Wisconsin to eventually pass Michigan/OSU in the rankings? If OSU beats UM and Penn State manages to run the table, we could have an 11-1 OSU at home during championship week while 10-2 PSU and 10-2 Wisconsin are playing for the league title. Will the committee (which has kinda boxed itself in before by stating that a conference title is an important criteria) actually have the stones to rank OSU over PSU and Wisconsin? And what happens to Oklahoma, presumed Big 12 champ? Are they blocked for good by virtue of their early-season loss to OSU? If the committee is kicking the tires on 11-2 Big Ten champ Penn State and 10-2 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, does it matter that a team from Penn State’s conference gave OU one of their losses?
Ha! For fun, each week after they release the CFP rankings, I’ll drop in here (if I remember) and show what that 8-team proposal would look like.
Agreed, the committee put themselves into an awkward position by declaring that winning a conference championship was an important criteria. It’s going to look bad if an 11-2 Penn State team that beat OSU heads-up and won their league title is left out while an 11-1 OSU goes to the playoff (even though I think OSU is a deeper and better team overall…and I say that as a mostly-PSU fan).
Alabama is the only sure bet at this point. I think we’ll end up with either Clemson or Louisville, but not both. I think we’ll end up with at least one Big Ten team, but precisely which one hinges on UM-OSU and how the committee decides to interpret (another scenario is 10-2 Wisconsin beating 11-1 Michigan in the B1G title game…in which case the Badgers probably would get a bid). Will Washington recover enough to get back into the mix? Who knows.
So as promised, FOR FUN, I will use the rankings to project my hypothetical 8-team playoff. This is going to require a few projections of future results
SEC champion: Alabama
B1G champion: Penn State/Wisconsin*
Big 12 champion: Oklahoma
ACC champion: Clemson**
Pac-12 champion: Washington***
G5 representative: Western Michigan****
At-Large #1: Ohio State
At-Large #2: Louisville
*I know that right now Ohio State and Michigan are the two highest-ranked B1G teams, but if OSU beats UM they are blocked from the B1G title game by Penn State. So I am projecting that OSU wins and makes the B1G title game PSU vs. Wisconsin. If UM beats Ohio State, the title game will be UM-Wisconsin.
**Clemson sites one spot above Louisville right now and will win the ACC on the h2h tiebreaker if both win out. I think Louisville may be the better team but at this time Clemson is on pace to be the ACC champion.
***For now I am projecting that Washington will recover from the USC loss and win the Pac-12. If they beat Washington State in the Apple Cup, they still make the Pac-12 title game.
****Right now Boise State sits one spot higher than Western Michigan in the CFP rankings. With that said, under my hypothetical expanded-playoff system, I cannot imagine the committee denying an undefeated team in the G5 spot if one exists.
*****Since this projection included Ohio State beating Michigan, I assume that OSU will remain the highest-ranked team that does not win a league title. I also assume that Michigan would drop below Louisville once they take a second loss.
OK. So that’s a sample of what the field would look like with the projections named above. Now here’s the thing that I think would make it enormously fun: starting from the highest-ranked team on down, let the top seeds choose their opponent. How much fun would that be?
Yeah, I flipped it on at halftime and said “Whoa.”
I know UH is a solid team, and this was definitely a trap-game for Louisville (Thursday night roadie against a solid team that’s slightly underachieved) but damn. Definitely knocks Louisville out of the playoff picture now, and increases the odds of a two-loss conference champ getting in.
Could Oklahoma sneak all the way back into the picture as a 2-loss Big 12 champ? Depends how the Big Ten sorts out, I think.