While I agree (and I’ve said from the start) that it will be difficult for Romney to defeat Obama there is no poll currently available that demonstrates that it is over. Not by a long shot![/quote]
This is where my head was at as well.
Given the margin of error, aren’t most the polls showing a dead heat right now?[/quote]
Yeah, plus or minus.
But I want to add one more thing which I stated in my first post on this thread. If Obama leads Romney by 2 points or so going into the final day Romney will emerge the victor. As his base is far more likely to vote than Obama’s base. The anti-Obama vote is far stronger (even if it is a tad smaller) than the pro Obama voter. Keep in mind that in 08’ when most of the liberal droolers thought that Obama was actually going to make positive changes 8 million black people did not vote! I will wager that we will be adding another million or more to that figure. This is one of Obama’s most important demographics because 95% of black people who show up at the polls will pull the Obama lever.
If we break down his most ardent supporters each has a reason to lose faith in the chosen one:
Blacks have a higher unemployment rate than any other group. And it has climbed even higher under Obama.
Many Jewish people feel betrayed by Obama for his various statements on Israel, the democratic platform debacle where they tried to remove the word Israel. And the snubbing of Netanyahu.
18 to 23 age group which has also suffered high unemployment under this President. Will the come out in record numbers as they did in 2008 for Obama? No!
Catholics who supported Obama last time out will not be there in the numbers that they were for many reasons. Not the least of which is forcing their institutions to hand out birth control.
White women are the last group that clings to Obama. And that’s why the Obama sleeze machine created this fictional republican war on women. And by all accounts it has worked. If Obama is reelected you can look to the other gender for the cause. However if Romney chips away even a couple of points at the female lead Obama will lose.
It’s easy to answer a survey question, “hich man will you be voting for?”
But each person must do something far more than answer a phone poll on election day. They have to take time out of their day drive to the polls, perhaps stand in line and then vote. We’ve seen through the years that in a close race “voter motivation” is a key factor in bringing home the win for a candidate.
Obama may very well be reelected (as I’ve said) but he better hope that he leads Romney by more than a couple of points by election day. If not we will be calling Governor Romney President Romney in January!
Obama and company better hope that they are leading Romney by a good 4 to 5 points on election day.