@MarkKO good post!
I think that's accurate: 170s to 180s, but these are educated guesses, which I've learned is part of the game when starting out for a first show. I am a one-show wonder after all.
Paul Carer has VERY useful diet information for getting shredded. He got shredded to the bone for his only BB show. His skin was like see-through. I don't know much about Israel's stuff but he has come into shows very soft, from what I've seen.
Yes, it is. There's a guy Kurt Weidner, who's a damn tank and competes at 200 pounds and six feet, if I recall correctly. He's natural. I am not sure about the body fat percentage but relatively lean that is possible for an offseason weight, though likely not for you right now! But in the future yes! 12% is actually quite lean.
However, FORGET about body fat percentages. No one really knows what the heck they are unless they go for regular checks with underwater weighing or DEXA scans.
I believe for one's first show they should take a minimum of four months, and more if they are soft. My prep took five and a half months because I started out too soft.
You likely have to lose more than 20 pounds, maybe up to 30 pounds. Yes, it's severe, but natty BB is severe if you want to come in shredded. See my personal thread on here. I lost 36 pounds!
Forget thinking about measurements and do the appropriate training for your physique, strengths and weaknesses and work on posing. Your overall appearance is what counts and no judge jumps on a stage to check measurements or your weight! They want to see definition and muscle and symmetry--that's it! It's the whole package. I beat three much larger men in my show because of my overall package and condition, not because of measurements! If it were measurements that mattered so much, they would have all beat me considering their size.
SMILE in all poses, no matter how uncomfortable you are. You have to look like you don't want to leave the stage and that you were born to do this!
I sucked at posing at first but finally nailed it. Practice all the mandatories.
1) You have to flare your traps in a crab pose and bend from the waist less.
2) Your hiding your physique in the side poses and not sitting on your legs.
3) Not flexing the quads enough in the abs-leg pose.
There are other flaws in the poses, but you will get the down when showed how it's done.