06 Electoral Predictions?

Off Topic Politics and World Issues
21

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Yeah, I agree with Boston. PA just isn’t reliably Red or Blue - as much as I hate those simplistic distinctions.

I think this one is a toss-up. If I had to predict right now, I would predict a Casey victory.

[/quote]

I am going to call Santorum by a whisker. Although it’s awfully early to predict.

If it’s Casey by 1% or so according to the polls Santorum will win the election.

Why?

Probably a few reasons, but primarily because his base will actually get out and vote.

22

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.[/quote]

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

23

[quote]100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…
[/quote]

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.

24

[quote]holifila wrote:
doogie wrote:
holifila wrote:
Anyone have any thoughts about the Texas Gov? I am praying that somehow, someway that assclown Perry loses. It kills me that I voted for him.

It would be funny to watch the chaos if Kinky won.

I doubt that I’ll vote for him, but I did resist voting in the republican primary so that my signature would count on his and Strayhorn’s petitions (that and the fact that the primary was a forgone conclusion after the party violated my conservative beliefs and democratic ethic when they ousted Strayhorn). I honestly have no idea who to vote for (except not Perry). [/quote]

Unfortunately, Perry is still the lesser of the crap we have running this year. I would not vote for Strayhorn if she were running against Satan himself.

I thought Kinky was just a novelty - and a may still be - but I have heard a lot of folks talking about him.

The Texas republican party has become a sad shell of conservatism - but are still running considerably to the right of the dems.

25

lumpy,

I have to admit. I like your style. You are a hard-core partisan.

You are an unapologetic lefty. I respect the passion with which you defend your silly positions.

That you happen to be wrong about everything doesn’t detract from that.

I’d take lumpy any day over an “independent/say anything to appear wordly” like marm.

My question is this: Will you change your name if your party doesn’t regain control of at least one branch of government?

I liked lumpy.

JeffR

26

[quote]100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…
[/quote]

Seems like your employer ,the DNC, isn’t even running with that poll. It’s dated from some time ago.

The actual Gap is less then 5pts., about the margin of error, but you knew that already didn’t you? It’s been the all the talk at Daily Kos.

It’s dountful Casey will stop the slide since he is about as charismatic as a block of wood. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

Sound familiar? Kind of like those days on the campaign trail with Howie isn’t it?

27

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.
[/quote]

It’s the most recent poll? The context was closing the gap? Hello?

28

[quote]JeffR wrote:
lumpy,

I have to admit. I like your style. You are a hard-core partisan.

You are an unapologetic lefty. I respect the passion with which you defend your silly positions.

That you happen to be wrong about everything doesn’t detract from that.

I’d take lumpy any day over an “independent/say anything to appear wordly” like marm.

My question is this: Will you change your name if your party doesn’t regain control of at least one branch of government?

I liked lumpy.

JeffR

[/quote]

(actually I am registered independent)
But proudly liberal. And yes I’ve learned that facts are silly things to you…(You don’t seem to understand/live in the realy world). It’s strange that you can be debunked over and over, and yet still make silly claims of rightness.

And no, I’ll keep 100meters, but since I’m in my 5th week of not working out since my hernia repair, lumpy kind of fits…

29

[quote]hedo wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

Seems like your employer ,the DNC, isn’t even running with that poll. It’s dated from some time ago.

The actual Gap is less then 5pts., about the margin of error, but you knew that already didn’t you? It’s been the all the talk at Daily Kos.

It’s dountful Casey will stop the slide since he is about as charismatic as a block of wood. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

Sound familiar? Kind of like those days on the campaign trail with Howie isn’t it?

[/quote]

Ok, DNC, daily kos, good Hedo! You forgot moveon!

All right I apologize for posting the latest relevant information to casey v. santorum. What was I thinking? Santorum is actually ahead like Harris right? Again sorry to all wingnuts.

30

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.
[/quote]

It is getting real close. Pay no attention to 100meters on this one. He is way out in left field.

They are debating for the first time on Meet the Press this weekend.

Casey has been hiding trying to protect his lead and now he has to come out and fight, or at least tell us who he is and what he stands for.

31

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Casey has been hiding trying to protect his lead and now he has to come out and fight, or at least tell us who he is and what he stands for.

[/quote]

This is the death nail for the dems - no message, no direction, and no message.

And just to clarify - ABB is not a message. It hasn’t worked since it was first tried 6 years ago.

The country will move right as it gets closer to November - just as it has in most elections since 1994.

32

[quote]100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

Seems like your employer ,the DNC, isn’t even running with that poll. It’s dated from some time ago.

The actual Gap is less then 5pts., about the margin of error, but you knew that already didn’t you? It’s been the all the talk at Daily Kos.

It’s dountful Casey will stop the slide since he is about as charismatic as a block of wood. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

Sound familiar? Kind of like those days on the campaign trail with Howie isn’t it?

Ok, DNC, daily kos, good Hedo! You forgot moveon!

All right I apologize for posting the latest relevant information to casey v. santorum. What was I thinking? Santorum is actually ahead like Harris right? Again sorry to all wingnuts.[/quote]

It’s not the latest. Look on any of your moonbat sites or the pollster himself.

In fact the candidates will debate this Sunday. The political talk is the lead that has dissapeared in the past 8 weeks. Look it up or better yet tune in.

The lead went away because the candidates are now on the trail and the Pa. voters do not like Casey. It’s a Howard Dean scenario. The more he campaigns the worse his numbers get.

Anyway if a Democrat doesn’t have a 10 pt. lead on election eve he doesn’t seem to win anyway. You know with the way we rig the elections and all.

33

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
Casey has been hiding trying to protect his lead and now he has to come out and fight, or at least tell us who he is and what he stands for.

This is the death nail for the dems - no message, no direction, and no message.

And just to clarify - ABB is not a message. It hasn’t worked since it was first tried 6 years ago.

The country will move right as it gets closer to November - just as it has in most elections since 1994. [/quote]

I think you are correct on this RJ. With the exception of a few races here and there the trend is overwhelming when it comes to election day.

Carville actually said if they don’t take at least the house this year, the Dems may become a fringe party. I can’t stand the guy but he can read the election winds pretty well and I don’t think he sounds optomistic. They’ve lost the middle class and that’s the biggest block of voters out there.

34

[quote]100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.

It’s the most recent poll? The context was closing the gap? Hello?[/quote]

Care to place a wager on whether the next poll is closer to this outlier poll or to 6%?

35

[quote]hedo wrote:
Carville actually said if they don’t take at least the house this year, the Dems may become a fringe party. I can’t stand the guy but he can read the election winds pretty well and I don’t think he sounds optomistic. They’ve lost the middle class and that’s the biggest block of voters out there.[/quote]

Carville like the Terrell Owens of political consultants. Everybody hates him unless he’s on your team. I can’t stand the guy, but he does know what he is talking about.

I remember watching him one election night, I believe it was 2004, and he was saying essentially the same thing then: The dems will die if they don’t come up with a coherent message.

He must be the only guy on that side of the ball that the Wing-T playbook is old an worn out. They need to adopt the West Coast offense, as it were.

36

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Care to place a wager on whether the next poll is closer to this outlier poll or to 6%?
[/quote]

There is only one poll that matters. The dems just don’t get it. If you’ll notice, 100M is all about the polls - and they mean squat in real life.

37

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.

It is getting real close. Pay no attention to 100meters on this one. He is way out in left field.

They are debating for the first time on Meet the Press this weekend.

Casey has been hiding trying to protect his lead and now he has to come out and fight, or at least tell us who he is and what he stands for.

[/quote]

Hmm… I posted a link to the most recent poll and that puts me in left field? Casey only has to point out over and over Santorum’s nuttiness, don’t you think. Plus it looks like the Repubs are sinking all their dough in their R.I. debacle.

ah the ol’ don’t stand for anything canard!
well he stands for the same things the majority of us do…keep pointing it out and you’ll win.

38

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

You certainly know how to pull out the outlier don’t you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

That was the only poll at 18% – the others two recent polls were at 8% and 5%, respectively, with earlier ones from this month at around 6% as well. Unless I missed some major political flub or there’s an amazingly effective ad campaign running, I’d guess the outlier is wrong.

It’s the most recent poll? The context was closing the gap? Hello?

Care to place a wager on whether the next poll is closer to this outlier poll or to 6%?
[/quote]

Goodness, I apologized already for posting the current relevant info didn’t I?

39

[quote]hedo wrote:
100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
100meters wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

It doesn’t seem like he’s closing the gap at 18 points back does it?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm
of course Santorum is a nut so maybe he thinks he’s closing the gap. Still, he’s got time to pull it out…

Seems like your employer ,the DNC, isn’t even running with that poll. It’s dated from some time ago.

The actual Gap is less then 5pts., about the margin of error, but you knew that already didn’t you? It’s been the all the talk at Daily Kos.

It’s dountful Casey will stop the slide since he is about as charismatic as a block of wood. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

Sound familiar? Kind of like those days on the campaign trail with Howie isn’t it?

Ok, DNC, daily kos, good Hedo! You forgot moveon!

All right I apologize for posting the latest relevant information to casey v. santorum. What was I thinking? Santorum is actually ahead like Harris right? Again sorry to all wingnuts.

It’s not the latest. Look on any of your moonbat sites or the pollster himself.

In fact the candidates will debate this Sunday. The political talk is the lead that has dissapeared in the past 8 weeks. Look it up or better yet tune in.

The lead went away because the candidates are now on the trail and the Pa. voters do not like Casey. It’s a Howard Dean scenario. The more he campaigns the worse his numbers get.

Anyway if a Democrat doesn’t have a 10 pt. lead on election eve he doesn’t seem to win anyway. You know with the way we rig the elections and all.

[/quote]

Uh, which poll was released more recently? Plus you keep forgetting Santorum is a nut. You guys don’t really want Santorum to win do you?

40

[quote]100meters wrote:

Uh, which poll was released more recently? Plus you keep forgetting Santorum is a nut. You guys don’t really want Santorum to win do you?[/quote]

Please present some reasons why you think Santorum is “a nut.”