T Nation

06 Electoral Predictions?

It’s getting closer to decision time – anyone have any predictions?

Generally, I think all the talk about actually changing control of one of chambers of Congress is just that – talk. I think the Republicans will do better than the conventional wisdom (CW) holds in the House races particularly - the Senate just happens to have some particular races coming up in this cycle that would indicate that the Dems may pick up seats (although they’re losing Connecticut - Lieberman is going to win and he’s not going to play nicely with the Dems w/r/t voting for leadership).

The Republicans overall seem to be picking up some support – don’t know if that’s just because the Democrats look bad in comparison when people actually get closer to making the decision in the voting booth. I certainly can’t point to any particular accomplishments from the GOP congress that would predicate the increase in popularity they’ve seen lately.

With regard to the current numbers and trends, Byron York lays them out - N.B. particularly the 2nd paragraph:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDA0MGVjM2IyMjBkYjMzMzcyOWYzNzIxYTc2ODhkOWU=

Republicans appear to be narrowing the Democratic lead in Congressional preference. In new Gallup poll, Democrats hold a two percentage-point lead ? the smallest in a year. In answer to the question, “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” 47 percent of said the Democratic candidate, while 45 percent said the Republican candidate. That two-point gap is far smaller than 51-40 Democratic advantage just three weeks ago. In June, the Democratic advantage was 54-38; in April, it was 54-39; in March, it was 55-39; in February, it was 50-43; in January, it was 49-43; in October 2005, it was 50-43; and in August 2005, it was 53-41.

All those numbers are drawn from registered voters. Among people described as “regular voters” ? according to Gallup, “registered voters who say they ‘always vote’ and who say they voted in the last mid-term election,” in the new poll, Democrats and Republicans are tied, 48-48.

I think that Devos is gonna take the governors spotin the great state of Michigan. His campaign, so far, is heads and tails above Granholms. Most notable is how positive it is with a real plan for change.Granholms best response so far has been “it’s all Bush’s fault”, typical.

Michigan has remained the worst economy in the union for too long. Of course the east side of the state and most union members go absolutely insane at the mention of Devos. Overall, Michigan is a blue state, but at the same time we’re very polarized as well. In Michigan the left is right and the right is left :-]

Devos '06!!!

Dems will not get a majority in either house. At best 1 senate seat and two house seats. They have the same chance of losing as many.

The polls are interesting. If the Dems are not ahead by at least 10%, from a legitimate poll, they most likely lose in most races. Since they are only ahead by the margin of error in the largest polls my prediction is they will lose a few seats.

The radicalization of the party over the last two years has turned off more voters then it has attracted. The Lieberman primary race is a good example. That only plays in the Liberal NE and West Coast. The rest of the country viewed Lieberman in a very positive light, and they should. I can’t wait to see him speak at the 08 Republican convention ala Zell Miller.

We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.

[quote]ssn0 wrote:
We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.[/quote]

What in the freaking hell does this have to do with the '06 elections?

[quote]ssn0 wrote:
We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.[/quote]

Dude, go lighter on the acid…

[quote]rainjack wrote:
ssn0 wrote:
We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.

What in the freaking hell does this have to do with the '06 elections?

[/quote]

Nothing . I thought I’d hijack, the elections will be all bullshit.

[quote]ssn0 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
ssn0 wrote:
We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.

What in the freaking hell does this have to do with the '06 elections?

Nothing . I thought I’d hijack, the elections will be all bullshit.[/quote]

Oh - I forgot…you are one of the tin foil hat folks. Illuminati, Tri-lateral commission, grassy knoll…

[quote]rainjack wrote:
ssn0 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
ssn0 wrote:
We need to be discerning and on the alert about the New Age movement. Behind all the hype of the New Age scenario is the hiss of the age-old serpent! On the surface, the push for worldwide peace and unity appears very noble and admirable, but below the surface this movement is actually being masterminded by Satan himself. The New Age movement is, in reality, a worldwide manipulation of human souls. These unwary souls are being manipulated to pave and prepare the way for a notorious world leader of the end times–the Antichrist. Under the guise of a better world for all mankind, Satan is maneuvering for a massive take-over through people who have become his unsuspecting pawns.

What in the freaking hell does this have to do with the '06 elections?

Nothing . I thought I’d hijack, the elections will be all bullshit.

Oh - I forgot…you are one of the tin foil hat folks. Illuminati, Tri-lateral commission, grassy knoll…[/quote]

Yes… Tin foil, Illuminati?!

http://planetquo.com/Illuminati-Design-And-Symbolism-In-The-Israeli-Supreme-Court-Building

I predict…

  1. Harold Ford, Jr. might win in Tennessee. Might. Blue Dogs can still get it done, especially since the GOP has positioned itself as the insulated Washington party. Though he is not a true Blue Dog, he can run as one and might make some noise.

  2. The Libertarian and Green parties will pick up no seats.

  3. I predict there will be no equivalent of the 1994 Revolution. The Dems had their chance to create such a thing, but I just don’t think they have done it.

Such bold predictions. :>

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
I predict…

  1. Harold Ford, Jr. might win in Tennessee. Might. Blue Dogs can still get it done, especially since the GOP has positioned itself as the insulated Washington party. Though he is not a true Blue Dog, he can run as one and might make some noise.

  2. The Libertarian and Green parties will pick up no seats.

  3. I predict there will be no equivalent of the 1994 Revolution. The Dems had their chance to create such a thing, but I just don’t think they have done it.

Such bold predictions. :>[/quote]

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?

[quote]hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?[/quote]

Santorum is closing the gap, so that one can’t just be penciled in as a Dem pick up. It will be extremely close, that’s about as comfortable as I am in making a call at this point.

[quote]hedo wrote:

How about Santorum vs. Casey in Pa.?[/quote]

Yeah, I agree with Boston. PA just isn’t reliably Red or Blue - as much as I hate those simplistic distinctions.

I think this one is a toss-up. If I had to predict right now, I would predict a Casey victory.

I must be out of the loop. I thought Santorum was eying the republican nomination in '08.

Now you guys are saying he may not even jeep his seat in 06?

I have got to get out more.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I must be out of the loop. I thought Santorum was eying the republican nomination in '08.

Now you guys are saying he may not even jeep his seat in 06?

I have got to get out more. [/quote]

Tightly contested.

Casey is the son of the former Governor of Pa. He had a 10pt. lead at one point.
The gap is now about 1-2pts. Too close to call.

The Dems are pouring money into the race but Santorum is no slouch as a campaigner and his ads are no doubt eating into Casey’s lead.

I think he’ll hold on. There is no groundswell for Casey and it’s tough to run against an incumbent if you are just going to mirror his positions. 4 debates in Oct.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I must be out of the loop. I thought Santorum was eying the republican nomination in '08.

Now you guys are saying he may not even jeep his seat in 06?

I have got to get out more. [/quote]

Santorum is facing a real tough fight to keep his seat.

The voters in PA think he is full of S but the alternative is no better which will end up being his saving grace.

It really should not have turned out this way but Santorum got too full of himself.

Anyone have any thoughts about the Texas Gov? I am praying that somehow, someway that assclown Perry loses. It kills me that I voted for him.

[quote]holifila wrote:
Anyone have any thoughts about the Texas Gov? I am praying that somehow, someway that assclown Perry loses. It kills me that I voted for him.[/quote]

It would be funny to watch the chaos if Kinky won.

[quote]doogie wrote:
holifila wrote:
Anyone have any thoughts about the Texas Gov? I am praying that somehow, someway that assclown Perry loses. It kills me that I voted for him.

It would be funny to watch the chaos if Kinky won.[/quote]

I doubt that I’ll vote for him, but I did resist voting in the republican primary so that my signature would count on his and Strayhorn’s petitions (that and the fact that the primary was a forgone conclusion after the party violated my conservative beliefs and democratic ethic when they ousted Strayhorn). I honestly have no idea who to vote for (except not Perry).